Democrat President Joe Biden’s decision to end support of the six-year-long Yemen war, and reassess American arms sales that began under his tenure as Vice President is surprisingly not what is making the headlines around the world this week. Jamal Khashoggi is a name that is familiar not just in journalistic circles but elsewhere too. Khashoggi was a Washington Post Saudi journalist who was killed in 2018 in Turkey. Following Khashoggi’s gruesome murder at the Saudi Embassy, fingers were instantly pointed at Saudi Arabia, and rather spectacularly on Mohammed Bin Salman, a.k.a, MBS. The Trump administration refused to publish a report linking MBS to the murder, despite the American legislature passing an act calling on intelligence services to provide evidence tying MBS to Khashoggi’s killing. However, matters are a bit different under the Democrat White House. Biden, who made it abundantly clear that his administration is not going to base their Middle East Policy on Saudi Arabia, unlike his predecessors, has finally called for the publication of the long blocked report in the public domain. What remains to be seen is how this is going to alter the relationship between the Americans and their strategically important partner in the Middle East.

Jamal Khashoggi had enjoyed a long and distinguished career in the Saudi Kingdom. He was known to have enjoyed close relations with the Royal family and often acted as an official spokesperson for them. . Khashoggi’s relationship with the ruling family and Saudi Arabia was redefined when King Salman’s son Mohammad Bin Salman started accumulating power and was soon made the Crown-Prince, set to inherit his father’s position. It is during this time Khashoggi distanced himself from the helm of power and became a critic of MBS and his policies often calling out the government and central political figures for imposing severe and autocratic policies. Despite his staunch stance, which fell well within the journalistic standards, no one foresaw what would befall Jamal Khashoggi. Khashoggi, having had come to terms with the threat looming over him, had relocated to the United States, in the form of a self-exile and had been a regular contributor to the Washington Post. Khashoggi in the summer of 2018 had travelled to Turkey in search of marital bliss. Tragically, before he could tie the knot, Jamal Khashoggi was reported missing from the Saudi embassy in Turkey and later pronounced dead.

Relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia were extremely warm under the Trump administration. However, the defining feature in this relationship wasn’t the two heads of state, rather the shots were called by Mohammad Bin Salman, and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The two young and like-minded individuals forged a close relationship in the second part of the decade, mainly due to their shared business mindset. In fact, Trump on Kushner’s urgings decided to make his first official overseas visit to Saudi Arabia. From the very onset of his Presidency, Trump cultivated a very close relationship with the Saudi Kingdom making it the fulcrum of his Middle-East policy, and viewing the country as an important ally against America’s long Middle East rival, the Islamic Republic of Iran. The relationship was further strengthened through the Trump Administration’s decision to increase arms sales to Saudi Arabia, whilst backing its campaign in the Yemen war.

Despite Trump and Kushner obviously viewing their Saudi counterparts as their bosom companions, it was still an utter shock to see Trump adopt an ambiguous stance towards the killing of Washington Post Journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Trumps’ decision to blatantly believe what the Crown-Prince had to say, shook the Congress and American Intelligence Services, as the CIA itself concluded with medium-high certainty that Mohammad Bin Salman was aware of and directly involved in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi.

In 2018, the United States Senate, unanimously passed Resolution 69, which recognised that the Government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has, in recent years engaged in concerning behaviour, which includes its conduct in the civil war in Yemen, the apparent detention of the Prime Minister of Lebanon, suppression of dissent in the Kingdom and of course the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. The resolution explicitly recognises the misleading statements issued by the Saudi government, and that the fact the recent actions have undermined trust and confidence in the long-standing friendship between the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The following resolution having been passed unanimously proved that the United States Senate was ready to take up its role in shaping foreign policy which it had long abdicated in favour of the executive. Despite the directness and consensual adoption of the resolution, it fell short of having any effect on American foreign policy. Owing simply to the fact that the Trump Administration actively suppressed its publication and wrote a blank cheque to the Saudi Government.

The United States turned a new page under the Biden Administration, as it seeks to calibrate American ties with the Gulf country. From the inception of Biden’s bid for the Presidency, he has portrayed a hard stance against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. During his campaign trails, he has gone to the extent of calling the country a ‘pariah’ state. In the short time that he has been in office, he has already reduced arms sales to the country, and the report presented to the Congress a few days ago by the Biden-Harris Administration was the proverbial last nail in the coffin. However, it is still early to determine the exact ramifications the report will have on the American-Saudi relationship and more importantly on the Kingdom’s de facto ruler MBS himself. The Biden administration may seem to be on a war footing undeterred by policies followed by their predecessors, but they have been extremely strategic. Apart from the incessant repetition by the White House Press Office, that decision would be taken keeping in mind that current relationship the two states share, Joe Biden prior to releasing the report also spoke to King Salman, the current head of state. Another anomaly that we see, is a dearth of White House officials rushing to the press to give insights into what the publication of the report means for the Saudis.

In the past few years, it has been evident to lawmakers on Capitol Hill and the intelligence services that Mohammed Bin Salman, wasn’t the top choice to be the leader of America’s closest ally in the Middle East. However, America’s top choice, Muhammad bin Nayef Al Saud, who served as the interior minister and was responsible for successfully countering the Al-Qaeda in the Kingdom, now lives in Canada in exile. The release of the report has just provided ammunition to the gun lying uncocked with the US Congress. Since the report by the Biden-Harris administration, we have already seen the imposition of the ‘Khashoggi Ban’, which is a new VISA policy, that sets new restrictions pursuant to section 21(a)(3)(C) of the Immigration and Nationality Act. The largely unanswered question that remains is how the American officials aim to publicly cooperate with a man who they have held responsible for an act of such nature. A possible divorce driven by public sentiment, or even a temporary souring of relations between the two countries could be a blessing in disguise for the IS and Al-Qaeda. However, another international actor set to benefit is the Islamic Republic of Iran. Ramifications of Joe Biden’s decision to halt arms sales to the Saudis were evident when Iran-backed Houthis rebels were quick to capitalise on this and decided to advance on several fronts. However, in the near future, we need to consider the possibility that America’s decision to distance itself from Riyadh, could very well open doors for China, Russia and may even push the Saudi officials to develop closer ties with the Israelis.

The release of the report, along with growing opposition to the Yemen war and President Biden’s insistence on speaking with King Salman, instead of his son MBS, has heralded a new era in US-Saudi relations. An era that is marked with a host of strategic calculations on the part of the United States, that are aimed at keeping Saudi Arabia at an arm’s length, while being able to exploit its strong position in the Middle East. Like many other acts of geopolitical significance that are often ignored in the hope of a natural solution, I fear this is not applicable in this case. Khashoggi’s death has stirred up feelings against the Saudi Kingdom and the leadership which could very well be directed towards America if they fail to act decisively in the near future.

The post JAMAL KHASHOGGI MURDER: SAUDI-US RELATION RECALIBRATION appeared first on WISER WORLD.

India-Turkmenistan Foreign Office Consultations

Virtual Foreign Consultations between the Indian Republic and Turkmenistan was held on the 13th of January, 2021. The Indian delegation was led by Shri Vikas Swarup, Secretary (West), while the delegation from Turkmenistan was led by H.E Mr. Vepa Hajiyev, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan.

The primary rationale behind the consultations was to undertake a systematic review of bilateral relations between the two countries. This included political, economic, commercial, defense, and consular cooperation. Both sides used the opportunity to exchange views on regional and international issues of mutual interests and agreed to enhance cooperation in the United Nations and the multilateral arena.

3rd Senior Officials Meeting of Arab-India Cooperation Forum

On the 12th of January 2021, the third India-Arab Cooperation Forum took place. The Forum meeting was co-chaired by Shri Sanjay Bhattacharyya, Secretary (CPV&OIA), and Ambassador Mohamed Abu Al-Kheir, Assistant Foreign Minister and Permanent Representative of Egypt to the League of Arab States with the participation of Senior Officials from the Arab States and India, as well as the General Secretariat of the League of Arab States.

The Representative hailed the strong foundation, great potential, and wide-ranging prospects for Arab-India cooperation. They also used the opportunity to recall the historic ties between the Arab world and India. Through the Forum, the leaders stressed the need for political solutions to regional issues and crisis in the Middle East, particularly the Palestinian issues, the crisis in Syria, Libya, and Yemen, and underscored the need for cooperation in combating terrorism and ensuring freedom of navigation and maritime security, according to the principles of international law.

The Arab side congratulated the Republic of India on its election as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for a two-year term (2021-2022), while looking forward to India’s continuing pivotal role at the international stage, particularly concerning regional issues of mutual concern. They agreed on the early scheduling of the joint activities of the Forum, including the 3rd Session of Arab-India Cultural Festival, the Symposium on Arab-India Cooperation in the field of Energy, the 1st Arab-India University Presidents Conference, the 2nd

Symposium on Arab-India Cooperation in the field of Media, and the 6th Session of Arab-India Partnership Conference.

India and France hold Strategic Dialogue

Shri Ajit Doval, National Security Advisor, led the Indian delegation during the India-France Strategic Dialogue. The French delegation was led by Mr. Emmanuel Bonne, Diplomatic Advisor to the French President.

The Strategic dialogue between the two countries included discussions on a variety of issues including counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, defense cooperation, and the Indo-Pacific region. Both sides reaffirmed the high priority they accord to the India-France strategic partnership and highlighted the convergence of views between the two countries.

Following his meeting with Shri Ajit Doval, the French advisor called upon the Prime Minister, Shiri Narendra Modi, the Defence Minister, and the External Affairs Minister. He also addressed the Vivekananda International Foundation on “France and India: Partners for a stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

India-Germany Leaders’ Video-Teleconference

The Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi held a video conference with his German counterpart, Federal Chancellor Dr. Angela Merkel. The Prime Minister started the exchange by appreciating, Dr. Merkel’s long-standing role in providing stable and strong leadership at the European and global stage, and thanked her for strengthening the India-Germany Strategic Partnership.

The two leaders discussed key issues of mutual importance including the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, bilateral ties, regional and global issues, particularly India-EU relations. The Prime Minister used the opportunity to brief his German counterpart on the developments in India with regard to vaccine development and assured her of India’s commitment to using its capacity for the betterment of all countries.

The Prime Minister welcomed Germany’s decision to join the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and expressed his desire to further strengthen cooperation with Germany under the platform of Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI). The two heads of state agreed to hold the sixth Intergovernmental Consultations at an early date in 2021, and to create an ambitious agenda for the same, given that this year marks the 70th anniversary of setting up bilateral relations between India and Germany.

Exchange of list of prisoners between India and Pakistan

Keeping with the provisions of the 2008 Agreement, The Indian Republic and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan exchanged lists of civilian prisoners and fishermen in their respective custody. The Indian government handed over a list of 263 Pakistani civilian prisoners and a list of 77 fishermen. The Pakistan government’s list included 49 Indian Civilians and a total of 270 fishermen, who according to the Islamic Republic are Indians or believed to be Indians.

Upon the exchange of lists, the Indian government asked to expedite the release and repatriation of 3 Indian civilian prisoners and 185 Indian fishermen, whose nationality has been confirmed and conveyed to Pakistan. Additionally, the Indian government has requested consular access to Indian fishermen and 22 civilians prisoners who are believed to be Indians. In keeping with the 2008 agreement, the Indian government requested access for Indian medical personnel to assess the mental conditions of the believed to be Indian prisoners.

At the exchange, the Indian government reaffirmed its priority towards all humanitarian matters, including those pertaining to prisoners and fishermen in both countries. In view of the COVID 19 pandemic, the Indian government requested the Pakistan government to ensure the safety, security, and welfare of all Indians and believed- to-be Indian civil prisoners and fishermen.

India Delivers Humanitarian Assistance & Disaster Relief Support to Fiji after Tropical Cyclone Yasa

The Fiji islands were hit by a category 5 Tropical Cyclone Yasa in December. The Cyclone caused massive damage to the islands. In light of this natural calamity, the Indian government decided to provide humanitarian assistance through material aid. The relied material provided by the Indian government included shelter and hygiene kits, the government additionally also agreed to provide immediate assistance to the cyclone-affected communities.

A massive undertaking of this nature was possible owing to the work carried out by the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and were airlifted to the Fiji Islands, with the help of Air India and the Fiji Islands, through Sydney, Australia. India stood by Fiji during times of crisis and devastation, as this was not the first time that India provided the country assistance. Back in 2016, India was the leading nation to undertake humanitarian work on the islands following Tropical Cyclone Winston in 2016. India’s actions speak of its commitment to provide Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief support to friendly Foreign Countries as a first responder. India’s leadership role in the Indo-Pacific is in line with the Indo-Pacific Oceans initiative announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2019.

Telephone Conversation between Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and Prime Minister of UK The Rt Hon Boris Johnson

The Indian Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi conducted a telephone conversation with the British Prime Minister, The Rt Hon Boris Johnson. Mr. Johnson appreciated the Indian government’s invitation to the Republic Day, but regretted his inability to attend, given the changed COVID 19 context in the UK.

The leaders reviewed ongoing cooperation between the two countries. Prime Minister Modi, congratulated Mr. Johnson and his government for achieving the

highest vaccination numbers in Europe. The two leaders agreed to cooperate in the near future to make the COVID 19 vaccines available for the world. Lastly, the heads of state reiterated their shared belief in the potential of the India-UK partnership in the post-Brexit, post-Covid context, and agreed to work towards a comprehensive roadmap for realizing this potential.

Conclusion

Keeping aside the boiling tensions in the United States, we have noted a trend in geopolitical actions, wherein states have adopted a more cooperative attitude. This is particularly true with India, as can be seen through the points that we have covered in the report. In the coming months, it would be interesting to see the nature of the relationship that the Indian government develops with the Biden- Harris administration, and this would affect its policies in the Indo-pacific and the Middle East.

Also Read: INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY REPORT — EDITION #8

The post INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY REPORT — EDITION #9 appeared first on WISER WORLD.

The Iranian regime has considered the United States to be a staunch adversary since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The killing of Fakhrizadeh was the last nail in the coffin. The Iranian leadership faces a perilous conundrum in a precarious environment.

With the recent election of Joe Biden as the forty-sixth president of the United States and Hassan Rouhani’s term drawing to an end in 2021, we must shed light on what the future holds for the adversaries. Recent months have recorded a tremendous increase in hostilities between the two countries. Within this highly complex geopolitical web, Iran though cornered has not lost all hope. There are two significant advantages that the regime enjoys in the region. There exists a general understanding in the Gulf that U.S allies, which includes Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, do not have the capacity to engage with Iran in a full out conflagration. The second advantage that Iran enjoys is its regional proxy networks.

The Iranian regime has aimed at executing a one state, two systems formula for conflict-ridden states. Through this strategy, Tehran does not wish to rebuild institutions in accordance with international convention, instead chooses an approach centred around a host of armed non-state actors, that help the regime establish networks and institutions that parallel national institutions. The presence of weak national institutions provides the regime with the opportunity to subjugate governing structures and political systems. With the election of Joe Biden to the Presidency of the United States, there is renewed optimism that real diplomacy and engagement will dictate relations between the US and Iran, as compared to wishful demands for Iran’s total capitulation.

The last four years under the Trump Administration has marked the most contentious period in US-Iran history since the 1980s. The fragile state of relations between the US and Iran is clear by the fact that the two countries have been on the brink of war twice. The first being in the aftermath of Iran shooting down a US drone in 2019 and the second being the start of 2020 when the US orchestrated the assassination of the Quads Force commander Qasem Soleimani. The situation under the Biden administration might be expected to take a veritable turn, as there could be a substantial reduction in tensions by easing sanctions on the Iranian economy, and a return to an approach involving multilateral diplomacy that initially led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015. But the question still remains, if the Biden White House can draw its European Allies-Britain, France, and Germany to rebuild a coalition, of a similar nature as seen during the Obama era.

However, there exist several hurdles in this entire process of renewed diplomacy that the Biden administration may or may not adopt towards the Iranian Regime. The first such obstacle that the United States faces is the lack of time. Iran is due to have its presidential elections in 2021, which would in all probability see Housan Rouhani step down. The Presidential election may act as a thorn for the United States government as there has been a substantial weakening of the pragmatic forces within the Iranian polity. According to Iranian-American scholar Mohamad Tabbar, Iranian politics has undergone a tectonic shift, which has resulted in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps assuming the leadership of this change. The Iranian military is also preparing for the upcoming presidential elections and a veteran of the IRGC is likely to take over the executive branch. These perceived changes within the Iranian political structure gives the Biden White House, approximately six months to deal with and straighten out US’s relations with Iran. The Biden Administration is predicted to be faced with surmounting pressure from its allies in the Middle-Eastern Region, this opposition to US engagement with Iran is a result of the growing concern that this would lead to a broader rapprochement between Iran and the US, which could diminish the importance of American allies to Washington D.C.

Another significant challenge faced by the Biden administration will be shoring up support for the JCPOA within the country itself. The JCPOA has always faced tough criticism in Congress, members of the two houses never warmed up to the idea of an agreement with the Iranian regime. The biggest point of contention for parties and other actors in American politics has been varying expectations. Many believe that Iran should not be permitted to have a nuclear civil program, while many are of the opinion that the country needs to change its behaviour in the regime before a revised deal can be entered. Some believed that the provisions of the original JCPOA focused solely on the short term, and felt that it was necessary to tie down Iran’s nuclear ambitions in the long run. Getting Congressional support for a revised JCPOA is not going to be a cakewalk. More importantly, entering into a revised agreement with Iran, Biden will have to ensure that both Iran and the United States will be able to uphold the provisions without any margin of error.

Lastly, American relations with Iran rely a great deal on the other parties that were originally a part of the JCPOA. This includes the “P=5+1”, that is Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany. Since the P-5 and Germany are all signatories to the JCPOA, the deal belongs to all of them. This essentially means that it is vital the United States can get each and every member on board with the revised provisions of a new agreement with Iran. However, this process of gaining support from European partners might be significantly more strenuous as compared to the last time, the countries agreed to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. This is mainly a result of a series of changes on the geopolitical stage. The U.K has now left the European Union, with the achievement of a trade deal. The Russians on the other hand have gotten more assertive. Whereas China seems to be at loggerheads with the Americans over its increasing presence in the Indo-Pacific.

Having assessed the current situation, it is evident that Iranians are relieved to have survived the last four years under Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure campaign”, and there exists a glimmer of hope that Biden’s election represents the opening of a new chapter. This, however, does not mean that Iran will be ready to compromise on America’s insistence. The regime will expect a revived JCPOA that recognizes the economic damage that has been caused over the past four years. There seems to be appearing a rift between the Iranian moderates and the hardliners. Amidst this confusion, it would be interesting to see how an agreement, if there is one, influences the Iranian Presidential elections. Moreover, in the event of a failure to achieve an agreement before the 2021 election, it would be difficult to ascertain the effect this might have on the two countries, and how the Biden White House would handle the Iranian Regime and what would be future of US-Iran relations.

The post US-IRAN: INCEPTION OF CORDIAL RELATIONS? appeared first on WISER WORLD.

There is no denying the fact that the United Kingdom had a significant impact on the European Union’s Foreign Policy. Brexit, in terms of the Middle East, the UK has shared the same concerns as the leadership in Brussels. This has included securing the flow of oil, ensuring non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and combating radical groups. However, cooperation with continental Europe has not always been the UK’s top priority when it came to Foreign Policy. As seen most notably in 2003 when the British government, under Labour Prime Minister joined the US-led coalition in invading Iraq, abasing strong criticism from Germany and France. To analyze Great Britain’s withdrawal from the confederacy, we look at three specific effects.

EU’s Loss of Power — Brexit & Middle East

We have already established the centrality of the British in the European Union’s economic development, foreign policies, and trade activities. Given the UK’s heightened power with the confederation, Brexit has not only left a gaping wound within the EU but has also shown the fragility of the union. Cracks within the European Union are so evident that political experts and heads of state, have entertained the possibility that the confederation may eventually break down completely. Since the Brexit referendum, there have been various right-wing discussions across European countries. The most glaring example of this is Poland. There has been a set of disagreements between the Polish government and the European Commission over contentious judiciary reforms.

The seriousness of the disagreements between the two entities is reflected through the words of the European Council President Donald Tusk who said, “The Matter is dramatically serious. The risk is deadly serious. Polexit is possible.” A similar situation of contention has developed between Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Hungarian right-wing government, which has been at odds with the EU, ever since the union voted overwhelmingly to label Orban’s government as a “systemic threat to the rule of law”. Given the current state of the Union, a weaker and inward-looking Europe is predicted to be less involved in the Middle East. The nature of Europe’s dealings with actors in the Middle East will significantly be altered as it strikes to bargain with authoritarian figures in maintaining border security and stability while paying lip service to its values and ideals. In terms of seeing the actual effects of Europe’s or the UK’s dealings with the states of the Middle East, post-Brexit, it will be interesting to see if the EU still enjoys its power to promote its values of the rule of law and democracy, given the significant erosion in soft power after the Brexit.

UK’s Interventionist Policy

The second aspect that we focus on is the prediction that the United Kingdom may adopt an interventionist policy following Brexit — Even though, in regards to the Middle East, historically the UK has followed an independent foreign policy. Breaking away from the European Union, grants the country freedom from its regional commitments to mainland Europe and could lead to a more pragmatic and self-interested approach to its dealing with Middle Eastern states.

With the UK adopting a more selective role in the region, it is expected that the country will pursue short term goals over long term goals. This might include its interests in fighting terrorism and promoting UK business, rather than focusing on establishing a peace process in states like Syria. This however does not mean that the British will overlook the peace process completely. Being an important stakeholder in the Middle East Peace Process is vital for the country to maintain its relevance and influence in the region. If anything, a post-Brexit future may be the most ideal time for Britain to assert itself in the Middle East region, especially as the EU could be further weakened by Britain’s future departure and its internal problems. In terms of the business expansion in the Middle East, the Global Risk insight has predicted that the country will extensively focus on the Gulf region, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Regional and International Actors

Given the probability of the EU adopting a more inward-looking policy and the UK following a more self-interested pattern in its interactions with Middle Eastern Actors, there is a possibility that this could result in a greater role for global powers such as China, to develop strategic partnerships and political alliances with the countries in the region. There could also be an increased role of regional actors in combating security dilemmas and economic issues through the involvement of the Gulf Cooperation Council. In terms of the Council, the GRI has predicted that blocks such as the GCC will step-in to essentially develop security and economic frameworks to address regional issues. However, this seems a bit too idealistic given the current political issues the Middle East is plagued with, and the splintering of various member states into their network groups, such as the Saudi-Emirati Coordination Council.

Conclusion

From our discussion on the effects of Brexit, it is clear that the process has not only redefined relations between the Middle East, the United Kingdom and the European Union and reshuffled the intentional economy, but also has the potential of significantly altering Europe’s and the UK’s relations individually with other international actors. There exists tremendous insecurity and anxiety in markets around the world, as experts stand by to see the effects of these changes. A great amount of diffidence can be felt in the case of both the EU and the UK, as both remain unsure of how Joe Biden, the President-elect of the United States of America might react to the current situation. Had the Brexit deal gone through under Trump we could have expected him to adopt a more pro-British stance, but with Biden, the ball can be in anyone’s court. Only time will truly tell.

Featured Image: AFP/Getty Images

The post 3 MAJOR EFFECTS OF BREXIT ON THE MIDDLE EAST appeared first on WISER WORLD.

Consultations between Secretary (East) and Republic of Korea First Vice Foreign Minister

Consultations were held between Ms. Riva Ganguly Das, Secretary(East), MEA, and the First Vice Foreign Minister Mr. Choi Jong-Kun of the Republic of Korea. The consultation was centred around international issues of mutual interest including high-level bilateral exchanges, defense, security cooperation, and COVID-19 response. An important area covered during the meeting was air travel between the two countries. Vice Minister Choi highlighted the steps being undertaken by the government to relax travel restrictions and agreed to continue consultation on the air bubble between the two countries. The Vice Minister expressed appreciation of the leadership role played by the Indian Republic in tackling issues such as climate change and disaster management through initiatives such as the International Solar Alliance and Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure.

The United States confers ‘Legion of Merit’ award on Prime Minister Narendra Modi

The President of the United States of America, Donald Trump conferred the highest decoration, The Legion of Merit, Degree Chief Commander, to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Mr. Modi was bestowed with the following award in recognition of his exemplary contribution to the advancement of the India-United States strategic partnership and promoting global peace and prosperity. The award was received on behalf of Mr. Modi, by Taranjit Sigh Sandhu. The Legion of Merit was also awarded to the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the former Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe.

India-UK Consultations on UNSC Issues

On the 18th of December, India and the United Kingdom held consultations on United Nations Security Council Issues. The UK delegation was being led by Mr. James Kariuki, Multilateral Policy Department of the UK Commonwealth and Foreign Office, and representatives from their Missions in New York and New Delhi. On the other hand, the Indian delegation was being led by Mr. Parish Gupta, Js (UNP & Summits), Ministry of External Affairs, and included other officials from the Ministry of External Affairs, PMI New York, and Indian High Commission in London.

The Indian delegation used this opportunity to brief their UK counterparts on its priorities during its upcoming tenure, including reformed multilateralism and counter-terrorism. The Indian delegation further touched upon its plan during its upcoming Presidency of the UNSC, including Climate Change and Security and famine and hunger in conflict situations. Both the delegations agreed to cooperate and work closely doing their time at the Security Council over the next two years.

Visit of External Affairs Minister to Qatar (December 27-28, 2020)

The External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar will be conducting an official visit to the State of Qatar on 27-28 December. The External Affairs Minister is scheduled to meet the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Ministry, H.E Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani. India and Qatar have over the years maintained close bilateral relations, and strong economic, cultural, and people-to-people cooperation. Bi-lateral trade was the US $10.95 billion in 2019-2. Both sides remain committed to intensifying bilateral cooperation in various fields including energy and investment.

The following visit undertaken by Jaishankar will be his first visit to the country in the capacity of the Indian External Affairs Minister. During the visit, he will be conducting a series of talks with his Qatari counterparts on issues ranging from regional and international issues of mutual interest. The two sides also focused on their response to the ongoing COVID- 19 pandemic and look forward to negotiating an agreement regarding a travel air bubble between the two states.

Virtual Meeting between Minister of State for External Affairs and the Foreign Minister of Gabon

A meeting between the Indian Republic and Gabon was held virtually on the 23rd of December, 2020. India was represented by Shri V. Muraleedheran, Minister of State for External Affairs, while Gabon was resented by H.E. Mr. Pacome Moubelet Boubeya, The Foreign Minister. Both leaders undertook a detailed review of bilateral ties including the COVID 19 pandemic and possibilities of cooperation in the post-COVID scenario. India and Gabon have shared friendly and cordial relations. The Indian delegation used the opportunity to emphasize how the meeting between Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and H.E. the President of Gabon in March of 2018 during the ISA founding Conference and during the Foreign Minister’s visit in 2017 and 2018 and strengthened the strategic relationship between the two countries.

Moving on, the attention shifted to Gabon and the ministers focused on the huge potential that exists in the country such as manganese, timber, agriculture, and railways. Bilateral trade between the two countries has been progressing at a steady rate and reached a total of US $511 million in 2018-19. Both delegations also reviewed the utilization of ITEC slots and finalized the draft MOU for participating in the e-VBAB project. Lastly, the two leaders discussed future cooperation and assistance at an international level, while assuring each other of support at the United Nations and other international forums.

India-Australia-Japan-United States Senior Officials Consultations

A joint video conference was held between the Senior Officials from the Ministry of External Affairs of India, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Australia, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, and Department of State of the United State of America. The following meeting was a follow-up to meetings held between the above-mentioned countries in September and October. The main focus of the consultation was on practical cooperation in the areas of connectivity and infrastructure development and security issues that include counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, and disaster relief. The countries present highlighted their main aim, which was to promote peace, security, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.

In terms of the ongoing effort to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, the officials underscored the importance of enhancing the resilience of supply chains and highlighted the need to ensure safe, effective, and affordable access to COVID-19 vaccines. The officials emphasized the centrality of the ASEAN in the regional architecture of the Indo-Pacific, by reiterating their support for ASEAN- centrality and ASEAN-led mechanisms.

Conclusion

With the introduction of the different COVID-19 vaccines, the world finally breathes a sigh of relief. In India’s case, we see a concentrated effort to strengthen relations, strategic partnerships and supply chains. The coming months will be a testament of whether India as a country will fade into oblivion owing to the severe economic stress brought upon the country, or will it embody the tail of a Phoenix rising from the ashes.

Also Read: INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY REPORT — EDITION #7

The post INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY REPORT — EDITION #8 appeared first on WISER WORLD.

India-Russia consultation on UNSC issues

A delegation from the Indian Republic, being led by Shri Vikas Swarup, from the Ministry of External Affairs, met with a delegation being led by Mr. Sergey Vasilyevich Vershinin, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. The consultations focused on India’s acceptance of the non-permanent seat of the United Nations Security Council. The Russian side appreciated India taking its place within the family of nations. Both sides focused on the agenda for the 2021-22 tenure. The Indian delegation along with emphasizing its commitment to deepen cooperation on counter-terrorism at multilateral platforms apprised the Russian delegation on its priorities. Lastly, the two countries decided to work closely together, given the common challenges faced and in keeping with their long-standing Special and Strategic Privileged Partnerships.

Unwarranted references to India in resolutions adopted by the Organisation of the Islamic Conference

On the 29th of November, the Ministry of External Affairs released a statement rejecting the references made to the Republic of India in the recent resolutions adopted by the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) at the 47th CFM session in Niamey, Republic of Niger. The ministry reinstated its belief that the Organisation for Islamic Conference has no locus standi in matters pertaining to domestic governance of the country, which also includes the highly volatile region of Jammu and Kashmir which the current government believes to be an integral and inalienable part of India. India expressed its contempt at the fact that the organization was being used by a country that itself has been under the spotlight numerous times in the past for religious tolerance, radicalism, and prosecution of minorities. The country finally delivered an ultimatum of sorts by suggesting that the Organisation for Islamic Conference refrain from making such unwarranted and factually incorrect references to India.

India- United Kingdom Dialogue

The Prime Minister of India, Shri Narendra Modi spoke to His Excellency Mr. Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on the 27th of November. The two leaders started their consultation by shedding light on the current situation in regards to COVID 19 in their specific countries and used the opportunity to promise cooperation between India and the UK in the area of vaccine development and manufacturing. The two leaders explored the possibility of further strengthening relations between the two countries, in areas related to trade and investment, scientific research, mobility of students and professionals, and defense and security. The two sides recalled their commitment to platforms like the International Solar Alliance and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure while agreeing that delegations from both countries should work towards creating a roadmap for the India-UK partnership.

India commitments at Afghanistan Conference 2020

The Afghanistan Conference, organized in Geneva, co-hosted by the United Nations, The government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, and the government of Finland, saw the participation of an Indian delegation, been led by S. Jaishankar. The External Affairs Minister announced at the conference that India had just concluded with Afghanistan an agreement for the construction of the Shatoot dam, which would provide safe drinking water to 2 million residents of Kabul city. India had earlier built the 202-km Phul-e-Khumri transmission line that provided

electricity to Kabul city. The Ministry of External Affairs recently also announced the launch of Phase-IV of the High Impact Community Development Projects in Afghanistan, which envisages more than 100 projects worth US$ 80 million that India would undertake in Afghanistan. In his statement, Jaishankar emphasized India’s long term commitment to the development of Afghanistan and the benefit of its people as a contiguous neighbour and strategic partner. The delegation also highlighted India’s efforts to provide alternate connectivity through Chabahar port and a dedicated Air Freight Corridor between India and Afghanistan. Lastly, Jaishankar voiced his concerns in regards to the increasing level of violence in Afghanistan and reiterated India’s call for an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire.

India-EU consultation on disarmament and non-proliferation

The European Union and India held the sixth round of consultations on disarmament and non-proliferation. The consultation saw the sides exchange vital information on areas of nuclear, chemical, biological disarmament and non-proliferation, outer space security issues, strategic stability. Environment and other developments of mutual interest. The main aim of the consultations was to enhance mutual understanding and appreciation between India and the EU on international security issues.

4th NSA Level Meeting on Trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation

The Indian National Security Advisor Shri Ajit Doval, visited Colombo to participate in the 4th NSA Level Meeting on Trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation. The meeting previously had been held in the Maldives in 2011, Sri Lanka in 2013, and India in 2014. The NSA level meetings have served as a platform for cooperation among Indian Ocean countries. Apart from the Defence Secretary of Sri Lanka and NSA Shri Ajit Doval from India, Defence Minister H.E. Mariya Didi will also participate in the meeting representing the Maldives. The meeting will provide an opportunity for discussion on issues pertaining to cooperation in maritime security in the Indian Ocean region. On the sidelines of the Trilateral Meeting, NSA is also expected to have other high-level bilateral engagements.

Bahrain, UAE, and Seychelles

External Affairs Minister, Dr. S.Jaishankar undertook a visit to Bahrain, UAE, and Seychelles from the 24th to the 29th of November, during which he met his counterparts and the leaders of the countries. Jaishankar’s visit to Bahrain is his first to the country since he took on the role as External Affairs Minister of India. Jaishakar used the opportunity to convey condolences on behalf of the Government of India and the people of India to the Bahrininin leadership on the demise of Prime Minister HH Prince Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa. The Minister will hold talks with the Bahrain leadership on bilateral issues as well as regional and international issues of mutual interest.

The External Affairs Minister visited the United Arab Emirates next, during which he met the Foreign Minister of UAE, HH Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan. During the interaction between the two leaders, they focused on taking forward the excellent cooperation between Indian and the United Arab Emirates under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The meeting reached a productive outcome as the two leaders were able to discuss ways in which Indian workers could resume their jobs in the UAE, as more than 3 million Indians live and work in the country. India and the UAE have maintained close contact during the pandemic. Prime Minister Modi has spoken to the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi HH Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during the pandemic. The two heads of state also co-chaired the India-UAEJoint Commission Meeting in September 2020.

Lastly, Jaishankar visited the Republic of Seychelles on the 27th and the 28th of November 2020. The Foreign Affairs Minister met with the newly elected President, H.E. MR. Wavel Ramkalawan to present greetings of Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, and discussed with him what the priorities for the Indian government are and focused on exploring new areas and avenues for strengthening India-Seychelles bilateral relations.

The post INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY REPORT — EDITION #7 appeared first on WISER WORLD.

The previous weekend’s protests were the second time the French public took to the streets in the last month. There has been a sudden call for action amongst the citizenry, mainly due to two reasons. The first being the unwarranted beating of Micheal Zecler, who by profession is a music composer. Zecler was kicked and punched for several minutes by three officers at his studio in Paris on the 21st of November. Over and above the ‘intentional violence’ charge, all four officers have been accused of forgery. A charge that is related to the police report filed after the incident, which stated that police officers acted in the following manner after they smelled cannabis and the fact that Mr. Zecler had resisted being searched. According to the prosecutor, the police officers involved agreed that they had acted out of panic, after Micheal Zecler, resisted them in the cramped surroundings of his office. The incident immediately caught the public’s attention. President Emmanuel Macron himself described the incident as “unacceptable” and “shameful”, demanding quick government proposals on how to rebuild trust between police and citizens.

In terms of the broader topic of contention between the authorities and the general public, we see a great amount of dissatisfaction resulting from the Micheal Zecler case, however, this dissatisfaction soon turned into frustration, which in turn led to a call for action after the French parliament tabled a security bill. Article 24 of which makes it a criminal offence to publish images of on-duty police officers with the intent to harm their “physical and psychological integrity”. Advocates of the proposed bill say that the legislation aims at protecting police officers from harassment and targeting on social media. On the other hand, a majority of the French population believes that media freedom and the citizens’ right to film police action must not be impeded, as the French police are under intense scrutiny and have received severe backlash, after the Zecler case.

In response to the recent protests and strong criticism, the government has received. Macron’s ruling party said that they plan to rewrite the article that curbs rights to circulate images of police officers. President Emmanuel Macron himself has acknowledged the fact that people of color are more likely to be stopped by police for ID checks than white. To deal with this problem he proposed setting up a platform for citizens to log unwarranted searches. The President’s recent remarks have, however, not settled well with the police unions, who have strictly denied the statement by the President. What remains to be seen is if the steps proposed by the ruling party and the President will be enough to pacific the people, so at the draw to a close the string of protests around the country, and more importantly to see if the steps will be enough from a substantive point of view.

Featured Image By: United World

The post PARIS PROTESTS AGAINST MACRON’S SECURITY LAW appeared first on WISER WORLD.

15th East Asia Summit

The 15th round of the East Asia Summit was held on the 14th of November. The Indian Republic was represented by Dr. S. Jaishankar. The summit was chaired by the Prime Minister of Vietnam H.E Nguyen Xuan Phuc, who also serves as the chair of the ASEAN. The External Affairs Minister used the platform to reaffirm the importance of the East Asia Summit, while speaking about the need to adhere to international laws, respecting territorial integrity, and promoting a rule-based global order. His comments tie into India’s recent experience of a border skirmish with its Eastern neighbor, and at the same time, his comments shed light on the country’s plans. The importance that the Indo-Pacific holds for the Indian Subcontinent, was evident by Jaishankar’s remarks, where he referred to the region as an integrated and organic maritime space.

Jaishankar further expressed concerns about actions and decisions in the South China Sea that have led to an erosion of trust. While talking further about the South China Sea, he called for a joint initiative post the COVID 19 pandemic to tackle the challenges cutting across international boundaries such as terrorism, climate change, and the pandemic. Lastly, the discussion moved to the issue that the world has been continuously grappling with. Jaishankar in his remarks about the COVID 19 briefed the EAS leaders about India’s response to the pandemic and highlighted India’s efforts to support the international community. All nations present at the summit issued a joint call to keep all global supply chains open for an expeditious and sustainable economic recovery.

17th ASEAN Summit

India was represented at the ASEAN by Prime Minister, Mr. Modi. The ASEAN Summit was chaired by H.E. Nguyen Xuan Phuc, the Prime Minister of Vietnam. In his opening remarks, the Indian Prime Minister chose to shed light on the importance of ASEAN, by highlighting its centrality to India’s Act East Policy. The Prime Minister underscored the importance of strengthening convergence between India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative and the ASEAN Outlook on Indo- Pacific, to ensure a free, open, inclusive, and rules-based Indo-Pacific region.

The Indian delegation to further cooperation with ASEAN nations reiterated India’s broader support to the international community and extended an offer to contribute US$ 1 million to the ASEAN COVID 19 Response Fund. The Prime Minister further talked about the importance of greater physical and digital connectivity between ASEAN and India and repeated India’s offer of a US$ 1 billion Line of Credit to support ASEAN connectivity. Lastly, the heads of state and international leaders present at the Summit, while recognizing India’s contribution to the peace and stability in the region, decided to adopt the new ASEAN-India Plan of Action for 2021-2025. The member states present insisted on the significance of keeping up and advancing harmony, dependability, wellbeing, and security in the South China Sea and guaranteeing opportunity of route and overflight.

20th Summit of SCO Council of Heads of State

The 20th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was held on the 10th of November in a virtual format. India was represented by the Prime Minister, while the Summit was being chaired by the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin. The Summit was attended by an array of partners, that comprised the Secretary-General of the SCO Secretariat, Executive Director of the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure, and the President of the four Observer States of the SCO, which includes: Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran, and Mongolia.

This was the third meeting that the Indian Delegation attended, since becoming a fully participating member of the SCO back in 2017. The Prime Minister used the forum to intimate other members of India’s plan in the United Nations, as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Mr. Modi emphasized India’s plans to focus on the theme of ‘reformed multilateralism’ to bring about desirable changes in global governance.

Further, the Prime Minister made known the country’s firm belief in regional peace, security, and prosperity and its future ambitions of raising a voice against terrorism, smuggling of illegal weapons, drugs, and money laundering. In terms of strengthening the Republic’s relationship with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Member nations, the Indian Delegating reflected on India’s strong cultural and historical connection with the SCO region and reiterated India’s firm commitment towards strengthening connectivity in the region with initiatives like International North-South Transport Corridor, Chabahar Port, and Ashgabat Agreement.

In his concluding remarks, the Indian Prime Minster expressed his willingness to host the next regular meetings of the SCO Council of Heads of Government on the 30th of November. Lastly, the Indian Prime Minister congratulated President Emomali Rahmon of the Republic of Tajikistan for taking up the chairmanship of the SCO next year and assured full cooperation from India’s end.

India-Mexico Meeting

The Indian External Affairs Minister met with H.E. Ambassador Ernesto Araujo, the External Relations Minister for Brazil. The Indian Delegation started the talks by conveying their condolences to the Brazilian families who lost loved ones in the terrorist attacks in France. The Ministers discussed opportunities for cooperation in the post-COVID world and emphasized the importance of Brazil-India cooperation in terms of economic recovery efforts, healthcare, cybersecurity, and supply chain resilience. The Ministers also discussed a wide range of regional and multilateral issues especially in the context of India’s upcoming membership of the UNSC, the role of G4, and India’s priorities in the UNSC.

India-Italy Virtual Summit

A virtual bi-lateral summit, between the Prime Minister, Shri. Narendra Modi and the Italian Prime Minister Prof. Giuseppe Conte was held on the 6th of November, 2020. Recalling the Italian Prime Minister’s visit to India two years ago, Mr. Modi appreciated the rapid strengthening of India- Italy relations. The summit acted as a common platform for the two leaders to review their bi-lateral frameworks and discuss a wide range of issues including political, scientific, and defence technology. Lastly, on the multilateral level, both sides agree to coordinate closely at platforms such as G-20, to face global issues such as the COVID 19 and the economic downturn caused by the same.

Removal of Sudan from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism and normalization of relations with Israel

On the 9th of November, the External Affairs Ministry released a statement, declaring that Sudan has been removed from the list of countries that are sponsors of terrorism. The Ministry acknowledged that the Indian-Sudanese relations are historic and special and forged based on shared values. The Indian Government also congratulated the Transitional Government and the people of Sudan on the signing of the Juba Peace Agreement, and hope that these positive developments will usher in democratic changes and contribute to enhancing Sudan’s development, peace, security, and stability.

Conclusion

India in the last month has taken significant steps towards establishing an environment of mutual respect and peace, while trying to set initiative a dialogue in the region which can act as a potential check on increasing Chinese aggression. With there being a constant mention of the shared problem of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the recent news coming out regarding the Pfizer and the Moderna vaccine, achieving 90% and 94.5% effectiveness, the country would have to focus on both production and distribution of the same if it is approved. Lastly, the next few months or even the coming years will be marked by a constant struggle aimed at economic recovery. It will be interesting to see how India’s strategic diplomatic ties help the country get back on its feet.

The post INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY REPORT — EDITION #6 appeared first on WISER WORLD.

Current State

Abiy’s government that refused to comment in the early stages of the conflict, recently asserted that its troops have successfully conquered territories, winning key battles, and are now marching undeterred towards Mekelle, where the TPLF has a stronghold and battle-hardened history. The war has pitted the central government against one of the most heavily militarized states that constitute Ethiopia. The TPLF occupied the helm of power for a long time within the Ethiopian political system, up until power was assumed by the current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed two years ago. While commenting on its recent actions the government claimed that the TPLF has turned renegade and is holding power in Tigray illegally, while both sides have blamed the other for an unconstitutional assault on rights, and creating a situation that has stirred up a global humanitarian situation.

Countries in the African region in the past week have expressed their concern that the current situation could set off a spark that may result in an all-out civil war, which could play a highly destabilizing role, affecting the Horn of Africa, which is the continents most fragile regions. The Tigray who leaders have been blamed for plotting against the government and subsequently purchasing heavy machinery in an effort to prepare for a war with Ahmed’s government have voiced their discontent with the central government, in saying that the Tigray population has been unfairly treated, ousted from top government jobs while being used a scapegoat for Ethiopia’s failures under the current administration. In an attempt to break free of the autocratic shackles of the government, Tigray held its elections in September in defiance of Abiy’s government. However, the following move did not yield the results that the Tigray leaders were expecting, instead, it acted to bolster the belief of Abiy Ahmed’s government, towards the need to bring the entire region under their control, leading them to vote in favor of establishing a temporary government in the region.

Refugee Crisis

As the war continues an obvious result of the instability and uncertainty has been the increasing number of Ethiopian citizens fleeing the conflict in the Northern region of the country and moving into Sudan. With numbers reaching close to 10,000, aid officials providing services on the ground believe that the numbers are going to significantly increase in the coming days. The gravity of the situation and the poor conditions prevalent in the region were described by the Sajjad

Mohammad Sajid, the United Nations Humanitarian Chief in Ethiopia, in what he described as long lines appearing outside bread shops of hungry children and women, while supply laden trucks are stuck at the border. Considering that such movement of refugees hasn’t been recorded in the region in the last two decades, and also recognizing the lack of resources in the hands of governments, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees has issued an official warning for a humanitarian crisis.

More than 27,000 have now crossed into Sudan through the Hamdayet border in Kassala State, the Lugdi in Gedaref State, and a new location further south at Aderafi border where Ethiopian refugees started crossing over the weekend. Recent ground reports indicate that refugees have been pouring into Sudan, exhausted from the long trek. The UNHCR along with partner agencies is moving to support the Sudanese government in its response, ramping up humanitarian assistance at the borders as the need continues to grow at an exponential rate. In the last week itself, the UNHCR has relocated close to 2,500 refugees, and with this constant and immediate need to keep relocating refugees, there seemed to have emerged a shortage of spaces or sites where these vulnerable refugees can be relocated to.

In Tigray, the lack of electricity, telecommunication, and no access to food and cash has been a major roadblock in delivering humanitarian assistance in the region. After nearly two weeks of conflict, reports of larger numbers of internally displaced grow daily, while the lack of access to those in need, coupled with the inability to move goods to the region, remain major impediments to providing assistance. The current Ethiopian crisis has been a major cause for the Eritrean refugee population of nearly 100,00 in Tigray, who are majorly reliant on assistance from UNHCR and partners. The potential for further displacement of refugees inside the country is increasingly a real possibility. The humanitarian situation as a result of this crisis is growing rapidly. UNHCR reiterates its call for peace and urges all parties to respect the safety and security of all civilians in Tigray.

What next?

The pandemic and the postponement of the general elections acted as a blessing for the Ethiopian government, who were able to use these unusual circumstances to sideline opposition leaders while also cracking down on critics, and most importantly producing an election environment that they can be comfortable with. For now, it seems, that Ahmed’s government will try and keep a lid on future confrontations with the Tigray leaders, while simultaneously try and curtail the budget of the region, in an attempt to squeeze out, what the government has termed as a rogue.

Featured Image Source: Google Images | Image By: CSIS

The post ETHIOPIAN POLITICAL TURMOIL – WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? appeared first on WISER WORLD.

Background of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

The region of Nagorno-Karabakh has for several decades been constantly buffeted by the winds of political instability, which emanated from the last days of the Soviet Union. Tensions originally arose when Armenias, which constitute a majority of the population in the region demanded a complete unification with the nation of Armenia. However, prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, when both Armenia and Azerbaijan were under the military-economic sway of the Soviet Union, the Armenian Parliament passed legislation, declaring the region of the Nagorno-Karabakh to be a part of Armenian territory. This was however categorically rejected by the Soviets, and led to a six-year-long war, which was only resolved in the early 1990s, by Russian intervention. In claim over the region, the Armenian authorities have cited the 1991 referendum, whereas the Azeri side has repeatedly highlighted the United Nations resolution that declares Nagorno-Karabakh, though a predominantly Armenian region, to be an integral part of Azerbaijan. As mentioned already, the region houses a majority of the Armenian population, owing to which several separatist movements have gained momentum, and have managed to declare the region as the ‘Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast’. Since the Six-Day War that recorded the killing of over 30,000 individuals, the conflict in the region has continued sporadically. However, what is unique in terms of the current conflict is the manner in which it has drawn in regional powers and has turned Nagorno-Karabakh into a region of Russian and Turkish interests.

Turkish Involvement in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

In recent months, the Turkish Government of Recep Erdagon. has attempted to portray economic might and military prowess, through its increasing presence in the region. Through the perspective of the international community, as the conflict escalates, many actors have questioned the role played by neighbouring nations such as Turkey. However, in the current conflict, the Turkish Republic has been pinned down by allegations regarding the involvement of Syrian fighters through the Turkish backed militias. It has been ascertained that Syrians are being deployed on behalf of the Azeri army, in the form of shock troops to claw back scraps of land. The increasing deaths of Syrians in the conflict and the use of weapons produced and supplied by states like Israel has been questioned and brought under the scanner the issue that how the worsening of the decades-long conflict attracts outside regional powers to the region. Reporters have shed light on the use of Turkish, Russian, and Israeli produced weapons in the war, especially Azerbaijan’s assault on Stepanakert, the capital of the region which has included the use of cluster munitions. While on the Armenian side, the reports from international groups such as Amnesty International have confirmed the use of Russian manufactured rocket artillery systems in the bombardment of the Azeri city of Ganja. The deployment of the Syrian mercenaries has followed a pattern very similar to the conflict in Libya, where both Turkey and the Russian Federation have locked horns in a bitter battle. Turkish officials have chosen to portray their country’s expanding foreign engagements as part of the country’s promotion of its security and energy interests. Interestingly, another view that has been adopted and mainly by the critics is that Erdagon’s government has used international engagement as an excuse to divert people’s attention from domestic problems such as the crumbling economy, the problems facing the healthcare system, and the effort of the government to rally the country behind an external cause is one last attempt to shore up domestic support.

Russian Stakes in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

As aforementioned, the Russian Federation has a long-established history with the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The first war which lasted six years was brought to an end owing to Russian intervention, effectively defining the Line of Contact between the two neighbouring nations. Russia for long has played a rather confusing and contradictory role. When it comes to Russia’s relations with Armenia, it provides military assistance through bilateral ties and Collective Security Treaty Organisations. However, this assistance for Armenia does not expand to the region of Nagorno- Karabakh, since it is an internationally recognized part of Azerbaijan. In terms of the current crises, Putin’s government has chosen to tread a fine line in terms of diplomatic relations with the erstwhile Soviet satellite states, by selling arms and providing economic assistance to both states. The Federation has given out mixed signals of its willingness to intervene in the conflict, by citing the excuse that it has met its moral obligation to aid the two states and that its jurisdiction does not extend to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Moscow has condemned Azerbaijan’s use of Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries in the region, out of the fear of the conflict becoming the trigger for Islamist militants to establish a presence in the outer reaches of Russia. However, Russia has stepped into the conflict to bring an end to chaos once again, just like it did more than three decades ago. Unfortunately, this time introducing a mutually agreed ceasefire is not going to be a cakewalk for the Russian authorities. Even as Russia floated the idea of sending in ‘Military observers’, the suggestion wasn’t responded to by either of the two heads of states involved in the conflict. The fighting scene is the worst since the war in the early 1990s. Several international bodies warn of an emerging humanitarian crisis, which will only be aggravated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

What Next?

It is crystal clear is that the current conflict can draw in regional powers especially NATO powers such as Turkey. In terms of closure to the conflict, the European Union Policy Chief, Josep Borrell, urged the two nations to carry out an immediate cessation of hostilities. While Iran, a strategic player in the region, also an ally of Armenia, offered to mediate. The region has already experienced war in the latter years of the 20th century which lasted a number of years, while on the other hand, 2016 skirmishes only lasted for a few days. Owing to such historical uncertainty it is difficult to chalk out a prediction for the near future. However, the situation may change significantly if a major power were to enter the conflict in the near future.

The post ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN CONFLICT — EXPLAINED! appeared first on WISER WORLD.