Existing Turmoil in Lebanon

“It’s an economic crisis, a financial crisis, a political crisis, a health crisis, and now this horrible explosion,” said Tamara Alrifai, the spokesperson for UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East.

The Beirut explosion is another nail in the coffin of Lebanon which is currently in the depths of several ongoing crises since 2019.

Lebanon experienced the biggest blow to its stability in October 2019 when the Lebanese pound severely depreciated by 75% of its official value on the black market and is now trading at nearly 9,000 to the dollar in comparison to the official peg of 1,507.5 to the dollar.

The currency devaluation poses a serious problem in an import-dependent country like Lebanon because imports have become extremely costly and people have to sell their personal belongings to be able to afford even the necessities like milk and bread. It has also led to the shutting down of several businesses. Lebanon’s public debt-to-gross domestic product has been the third highest in the world. About one-third of the country’s population is below the poverty line and the economy experiences an unemployment rate of  25% (source).

There had been massive protests all across the country since October on account of the people not receiving basic amenities promised by the government. There have been a series of blackouts, some lasting more than 22 hours, due to shortage of oil and diesel. The political elite of the country had been pushing the country towards its doom while benefitting from the country’s reserves by their corrupt practices. The Lebanese economy has been hit by hyperinflation on account of economic mismanagement by the government. The financing of huge fiscal deficits of the government by the Central Bank due to the inability of taxes and other techniques to generate sufficient revenue to meet the government expenditure has contributed a great deal to the ongoing hyperinflation.

This, along with Lebanon defaulting on its foreign debt, for the first time, in March goes a long way to show the incompetence of the government and its policies. The International Monetary Fund, on being asked for a financial rescue package and restoration of confidence by Prime Minister Hassan Diab, has refused any help unless the government provides a proper plan to revive the economy and shows initiative to combat existing corruption.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has said that there is no near scope for a breakthrough in negotiations and there is uncertainty regarding the capability of the government to implement reforms and bring the economy back to its growth path the country despite having a strong entrepreneurial culture in the past and taking the initiative to host Palestinian and Syrian refugees, thus, easing a humanitarian crisis.
The COVID-19 breakout and synchronized worldwide lockdowns have further contributed to the sharp economic decline of Lebanon and have “exposed the inadequacies of Lebanon’s social-welfare system”

Impact of the Explosion

The double-blast of 4th August will have grave consequences on the already falling economy of Lebanon. Beirut, the largest port in Lebanon was completely destroyed and will remain dysfunctional unless urgent repairs are made which could take up to several weeks or months. Domestic production in Lebanon accounts for only 10% of the country’s consumption. For a nation which is highly dependent on imports for most of its vital consumer goods, the destruction of the Beirut port, which was an entry point for imports to “feed a nation of more than 6 million people”, will lead to an epic downfall of the Lebanese economy and cause adversities in the supply chain. The nearest port of Lebanon, Tripoli, will not prove to be of much use, being one-third of Beirut’s size. Thus, even if the imports were shifted to arrive at Tripoli, they will not be able to accommodate the additional cargo volumes and there will be congestion. 

Beirut’s main grand silo at the port which was the largest grain storage facility in all of Lebanon was completely destroyed by the blast, leaving the country with barely less than a month’s grain reserves. Although the economy minister of Lebanon has said that the inventory of bread and flour is sufficient to avoid a crisis, one can never fully give up on the possibility of a supply chain shock, especially in an economy like Lebanon’s. Hani Bohsali, head of the importers’ syndicate, said, “We fear there will be a huge supply chain problem unless there is an international consensus to save us.” The silo stored around 85% of the country’s cereal, thus, experts are predicting an upcoming food shortage despite the assurance by the government.

Beirut’s main grand silo at the port which was the largest grain storage facility in all of Lebanon was completely destroyed by the blast, leaving the country with barely less than a month’s grain reserves. Although the economy minister of Lebanon has said that the inventory of bread and flour is sufficient to avoid a crisis, one can never fully give up on the possibility of a supply chain shock, especially in an economy like Lebanon’s. Hani Bohsali, head of the importers’ syndicate, said, “We fear there will be a huge supply chain problem unless there is an international consensus to save us.” The silo stored around 85% of the country’s cereal, thus, experts are predicting an upcoming food shortage despite the assurance by the government.

The blast has left nearly 300,000 people homeless. It has led to massive infrastructural damage which would take ages to fix. More importantly, even if the time required to rebuild the city is not taken into consideration for the moment, the repairs would cost the government several billions of dollars, gathering which is an impossible task considering the worldwide reputation and negative credit-worthiness of the nation owing to the prevailing corruption.

Owing to the explosion, several primary healthcare centres and hospitals have been so damaged that they cannot admit patients anymore. However, the number of people requiring immediate physical aid has increased, both, due to the blast and due to a hike in COVID-19 cases owing to the chaos amidst the emergency. The World Health Organization has reported that the explosion led to the destruction of 17 containers filled with hundreds of thousands of medical supplies and protective instruments to combat the deadly virus leading to an urgent need for supplies in that region. There is also the social cost of the explosion which has released harmful fumes in the environment, polluting it and bringing about the danger of genetic breathing disorders for years to come.

The explosion further shows the inadequacy of the government as it did not deal with such a large shipment of explosives, despite repeated warnings, and chose to ignore the matter since 2013. This incident will reignite the civil protests, which had been at bay due to the coronavirus spread, thus causing additional turmoil in the country.

The impact of the explosion can lead to further depreciation of the Lebanese pound, thus, rendering imports costlier than before and putting the economy in a recessionary spiral that could take ages to recover from unless a massive boost is given to the economy via international consensus and support.

Conclusion

The ongoing consequences of the economic crisis will hinder the economy’s ability to bounce back from the 2020 blast.^[14] Despite immediate recovery measures being taken by several international agencies and governments to deal with the emergency at hand and to help provide relief to and boost the well-being of the people in need, the future of Lebanon does not seem to be very promising. Unless the Lebanese politicians realise the severity of the situation, acknowledge their mistakes and present a united front to help the people, the future of Lebanon looks bleak. The resilience of the public will not be enough to come out of this disaster unless backed by government policies. The explosion has led to the complete loss of faith of the people in their administrative bodies and long-term situations will not improve unless fundamental reforms are brought about in the policies of the nation and implemented for the betterment of the people. 

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Past Challenges

The economic and social exploitation of the continent’s resources for decades along with horrendous violence and poor administration by corrupt leaders leading to widespread poverty and untimely deaths, which could have been prevented, has greatly contributed to its present economic scenario of Africa. Africa has witnessed one of the biggest cruelties of humanity, slavery. African slaves were supplied to American plantations which not only led to the loss of welfare due to denial of basic Human Rights but also hindered progress due to scarcity of labour in Africa. The anti-slave legislation solved the problem of scarcity and brought about a major change in the continent that led to the expansion of tropical agriculture in the economy.

However, that did not guarantee good days for Africa because, soon, they came under Colonial Control. The colonizers plundered their resources, worked them to death, impeded growth and development, and projected Africa as an economically weak continent in the global economy. They employed Africa’s necessary resources in the production and export of cheap primary commodities and raw materials only, which forced them to import the expensive manufactured goods which caused unequal trade transactions and greatly increased the trade deficits. The colonial rule has had serious long-term consequences on the economy of Africa and has greatly contributed to the underdevelopment of the continent.

Africa’s commendable growth potential is evident from the way it has bounced back from decades of torture and exploitation and maintained a somewhat average growth rate of 5% since 2000 in the Sub-Saharan region. This shows that Africa has the capability to increase and sustain its growth despite facing adverse conditions.

Present Scenario Due to the Pandemic

Despite not achieving the desired growth in 2019, forecasters were hopeful about the acceleration of growth at a stable rate, with an increase to 3.9% in 2020. However, due to the sudden onset of the pandemic, all prior forecasts have been rendered futile. New predictions state a sharp contraction in the Real GDP by 1.7% in 2020, indicating a 5.6% fall from the previous forecasts. These predictions are valid only for the short-term impact of the virus. If it were to last beyond the first quarter of 2020, then GDP would contract by 3.4%, i.e., a 7.3% fall from the previous predictions. This fall in GDP is accompanied by a 5% sharp rise in headline inflation due to supply-chain disruptions, thus, putting the economy in a state of stagflation. However, there is scope for the internal stability of the inflation rate due to immense fall in aggregate demand.  

Challenges Being Faced

Effect on Fiscal Deficits

The pandemic will lead to a great cyclical increase in fiscal deficits in Africa. It will happen in a two-fold process of decreasing government revenues and increasing fiscal expenditures to boost demand in the economy. In 2020, the deficits have been predicted to rise to 8% – 9% of the GDP, depending on the severity of the situation.

From the pandemics and other crises of the past, it has been noted that government revenues fall more rapidly than economic activity. Situations are more likely to worsen and be volatile to COVID-19 shocks due to the ineptitude of the administration in successfully implementing proper policy reforms to ensure smooth flow of government revenue.

Effect on Poverty

If there is a continuation of the prevailing trends, Africa will not be able to do away with extreme poverty by 2030, as planned before.  Taking into account the current scenario, there have been estimations that poverty will only fall to 24.7% in 2030 from 33.4% in 2018, which is still way above the 3% Sustainable Development Goal Target. Figures in the Economic Outlook of Africa (2020) indicate that the number of poor people will merely fall by 8 million, from 429.1 million in 2018 to 421.2 million in 2030. Only North Africa is expected to somewhat meet the 3% target by 2030.

However, the process of eradication can be sped-up by accelerating growth and development in the continent and taking measures to increase the social well-being of the people. Aggregate personal consumption needs a massive boost, of about 10% per annum, to help achieve the target by 2030. If these measures are not implemented properly then poverty eradication will remain a distant unachievable dream for the continent.

Other Challenges

There are other challenges being faced by Africa at the moment like increases in the debt burdens and fall in remittances and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Several countries in Africa have high debt-to-GDP ratios which are projected to drastically increase in the onset of COVID-19 and possess the risk of transforming to a sovereign debt crisis if not dealt with properly. In addition to it, remittances and FDI which constitute a dominant financial flow to Africa have been falling during the pandemic. This poses serious threats to the African economy and makes it vulnerable to economic instability.   

Policies to Ensure Stability

The African Economic Outlook (2020) suggests a few actionable policies to not only improve the quality of growth in Africa but also combat the impact of the pandemic. They are as follows:

• The government should ease the main constraints to productivity like poor infrastructure, uneducated and unskilled labour, poor administration, and others. Relaxing these constraints through adequate policy will guarantee growth revival.
• Governments across the continent should take adequate measures to not only stop the spread of the coronavirus but also economic stability by formulating and implementing a variety of combined fiscal and monetary policies.
• The fiscal and monetary policies should work hand-in-hand to collectively help in the revival of the economy. The fiscal policy should keep the debt buildup in check and provide a massive boost to aggregate demand and the monetary policy should work towards maintaining a stable inflation rate and minimizing exchange rate fluctuations. 
• There must be a shift from low-productivity informal sectors to high-productivity formal sectors which would help utilize the untapped resources of the economy.
• Despite the moderate growth of Africa over the past few decades, the quality of growth has been far from inclusive. Only a combination of rigid structural reforms by policymakers can accelerate Africa’s growth and improve its quality and inclusiveness. 
• Even if there is reduced scope for increased gains, policymakers should implement measures to sustain the gains already achieved in the past few years including macroeconomic stability, minimum fluctuations in exchange rates, and others.
• The government should increase the welfare of the people amidst the pandemic by providing proper healthcare benefits to labourers in the form of paid sick leaves and ensure income safety to those sick or quarantined and ensure job security to all who are suffering to check the increase of unemployment.
• The government should also facilitate Universal access to financed health services for everyone irrespective of their sector or employment status.

Conclusion

The Global Health Security (GHS) Index shows that 33 African countries are inadequately equipped to deal with the threats of the pandemic from a clinical perspective. However, Africa might stand a chance to stay strong in this adversity if proper arrangements can be made for rampant testing across the continent at affordable costs.

The future conditions of the economy depend on the competency of the governments to deal with the issue at hand. If the economies can uphold their resilience at this time, there is hope for a speedy revival and acceleration of the growth of Africa. This resilience can be maintained via effective structural reforms, to keep high debts and deficits in check, and minimal vulnerability, in the form of external reserves, to be able to finance imported advanced medical consumables and to make them available to the public. Thus, there has emerged an urgent need for policymakers to implement drastic reforms to strengthen resilience to be able to withstand shocks at all levels, be it macroeconomic, microeconomic or household levels.

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Agriculture

Agriculture is one of the top sectors in Africa with immense growth potential. The sector contributes to over 15% of Africa’s GDP and has shown a good growth rate due to prior government policies that prioritise the sector to retain its sustainability and competitiveness. The top-earning agricultural products are coffee, cocoa, maize and wheat with Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia and Uganda as the top producers.

Large areas of arable land, increasing use of technology, massive youth dividend, increasing government support and a large demand base make agriculture an attractive sector for investment despite the problem of erratic rainfall pattern in some places.

By the year 2050, it has been predicted that Africa’s population will almost double with a growth rate of 2.7% per annum. To meet the growing needs of the population, substantial investment from its global peers is absolutely necessary. That will also help the sector to grow and enhance its status as a global competitor, help in economic diversification and also mitigate the prominent problems of undernourishment, poverty and hunger that exist in the region.

Manufacturing Sector

Africa possesses an abundance of raw materials that can be easily turned to manufactured products for greater reliance on local products and increased exports of the same. The top three manufacturers in Africa are Egypt, South Africa and Morocco.

The growth of manufacturing can greatly drive economic growth and development in Africa. However, the sector faces challenges like lack of skilled-workforce, infrastructure gaps including low power supply and inadequate regulatory measures to address the prominent challenges. The import to export ratio of manufactured products in Africa is very high as Africa mostly exports unprocessed commodities. The growing manufacturing sector is making great advances in this aspect. It has already increased the total export goods from 18.7% in 2012 to 35.6% in 2017 and caused a significant decrease in imports implying greater importance to domestically manufactured products.

There has also been a shift in the focus of FDI projects from the dominant extractive industry to consumer-facing industries like retail, technology, media, etc. This trend is expected to continue in the near future.

Retail Sector

The African Development Bank is expecting the current 350-million-strong middle class to grow to under one billion by 2040. The growing middle-class demography is contributing to the growth and modernization of the retail sector which is greatly devoid of supply competition and requires investment to meet the growing consumer base. The market for essential goods constitutes the majority of consumer spending owing to the low-income levels in the economy and as the income-level status is not expected to undergo a drastic change in the recent future, the comparatively smaller market for luxury products will have a low growth rate.

As a large amount of consumer spending in Africa taking place in informal markets, due to the absence of prominent formal retail presence, is unaccounted for, Africa is projected as an economy with low household retail-spending despite that not being the case.

“The Brookings Institute’s latest analysis on trends of the African consumer market shows that consumer expenditure has grown at a compound annual rate of 3.9% since 2010 and reached US$1.4 trillion in 2015. This figure is expected to increase to US$2.5 trillion by 2030.”

There are several cyclical challenges related to the retail sector, like low GDP growth, high inflation, dwindling credit extension. The challenges can be used as opportunities to enhance the growth of the sector by focusing on the development of the retail infrastructure and modern logistics spaces to satiate the demand for high-quality space from retailers looking to expand in Africa.

Finance

Finance is one of the top sectors in Africa which regulates the funding of all the other sectors. Financial innovation guarantees the diversification of banking sector services and facilitates the incorporation of capital market instruments to reduce investment risk.

Rwanda, The Gambia and Senegal have shown massive progress in financial system rankings. However, there has been an overall decline in Africa’s global financial standing from 2017 – 2018 due to a fall in the pace of reform of this sector.

The impact investing industry has shown substantial growth and is quite relevant as several countries in Africa lie below the global average score for Human Development (0.8) with declining levels of official assistance. The industry has made an abundant impact across a wide range of sectors like Healthcare, Agriculture, Housing, Education and others. This provides ample opportunities for investment in several initiatives which will reap both financial and environmental returns.

Some of the prominent threats to this sector include underdeveloped market infrastructure due to limited funding, difficulty in gathering viable investment to meet financial and social targets, limited capital supply, unclear regulatory environment, inconsistent impact-measures and so on. These might prove to be a disincentive to many and hinder their investments. However, a far-sighted investor might implement innovative measures to meet the pending gaps and turn these challenges into opportunities to optimise social and environmental investments.

Infrastructure

Infrastructural inadequacy causes a huge hindrance to investment and growth in all sectors of Africa. There is a wide gap between the infrastructure needs of the continent and the amount being spent on fulfilling the need. There is an urgent need to bridge the gap through sufficient investment to meet the growing needs of Africa.

In countries like East Africa, Ethiopia and Tanzania, infrastructure investments in the form of new roads, energy support, transportation networks and others have led to guaranteed growth and transformation of the prevailing sectors. Construction has been primarily responsible for high economic expansion in Egypt. Infrastructural developments lead to employment generation via contractors, boosting aggregate demand. Investment in infrastructure by foreign players can prove to be very beneficial as it would provide the required sophistication to the local industry by supplying goods needed for large projects.

Real estate has evolved significantly, providing higher returns on investments, thus, becoming increasingly attractive to potential investors. Despite having good growth potential, real estate has certain risks attached to it like complex legal considerations, such as property ownership rights, social instability resulting from inequality, and others. However, the growth drivers like sustained high demand driven by urbanisation, improved capital regulation, technological advancements in banking leading to a boost in investment rates, and expected GDP growth supporting the demand for housing easily overshadow the challenges.

Conclusion

For many years, Africa’s growth potential has been understated and misunderstood. It has been treated as a non-friendly investment destination due to the several challenges posed. However, there has been a worldwide lack of understanding of the ease of converting the insurmountable challenges to opportunities. Africa’s growing population and the prevailing problem of excess demand need to be met via increased investment and innovation which will, in turn, lead to increased employment, decreased poverty and increased infrastructural development. Thus, despite Africa’s slowing global growth, if the prevailing challenges are addressed adequately, growth is inevitable.

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Following the PM’s address, our Finance Minister, Dr. Nirmala Sitharaman, through a set of conferences, laid out the specifics of the package divided into 5 tranches. This article seeks to explore the details, benefits and drawbacks of the same. 

The Package in Details

Some of the Key Highlights of the Package for various sectors in several tranches have been provided below:

EARLIER MEASURES 

The “Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana” provided the following:  

• Foodgrains and gas cylinders to the needy for three months.
• ₹500 to women Jan Dhan account holders for three months.
• Relief to construction workers via a Welfare Fund.
• Insurance cover to health workers.
• District Mineral Fund to facilitate greater medical testing.
• Increased minimum daily wage rate 
• An increased limit of collateral-free loans for Women Self Help Groups.

Apart from the aforementioned activities, the Indian government has also provided relaxation in Statutory and Compliance matters such as extending the last date for Income Tax Returns and filing GST returns, allowing for 24*7 customs clearance till 30th June 2020, and others. It has also sanctioned Rs. 15,000 crores for Emergency Health Response Package and issued pending income-tax returns up to Rs. 5 lakhs.

RBI’s Monetary Measures:

• Reducing Cash Reserve Ratios.
• Providing Targeted Long Term Repo Operations for fresh deployment in investment-grade bonds, commercial paper, and non-convertible debentures. 
• Increasing banks’ borrowing-limit under the Marginal Standing Facility.
• Special refinance facilities for NABARD, SIDBI and the NHB at policy repo rate.
• 3 months of moratorium on payment of all installments and interest on working capital facilities.

MSMEs AND OTHER BUSINESSES

• Availability of collateral-free, automatic loans with 4-year tenure.
• 25% reduction in the rate of Tax Deduction at Source (TDS) and Tax Collection at Source (TCS) 
• Equity infusion and Equity Support for MSMEs.
• Providing a new definition of MSMEs with additional turnover criteria to incentivise them to grow.
• Amendments of General Financial Rules to disallow Global tenders up to Rs.200 crores.
• Extension of the due date of all income-tax return for FY 2019-20.

AGRICULTURE^[3]

• Additional Emergency Working Capital for farmers through NABARD
• Provision of concessional credit to PM-KISAN beneficiaries.
• Promotion of ‘Vocal for Local with Global outreach’ vision via schemes formalising Micro Food Enterprises.
• Facilitating risk mitigation, assured returns and quality standardisation for farmers.
• Implementation of schemes for sustainable development of marine and inland fisheries, development of herbal cultivation, animal husbandry and beekeeping.
• Subsidies on transportation and storage.

MIGRANTS, LABOURERS and OTHERS^[4]

• Setting up shelters providing food and water to migrants by utilising  State Disaster Response Fund.
• Launching schemes to provide free food supply and affordable rental accommodation to migrant workers.
• Providing employment opportunities to the urban-poor by mass production of sanitizers and masks.
• Launching a Special Credit Facility for Street Vendors.
• Universalizing the minimum wage right and implementing the statutory concept of National Floor Wage to reduce regional disparity in minimum wages.
• Boosting the housing sector and the middle-income group through the extension of the Credit Linked Subsidy Scheme.

NEW HORIZONS^[5]

• Fast track Investment Clearance through Empowered Group of Secretaries (EGoS)
• Implementing schemes to upgrade industrial infrastructure and bring about beneficial policy reforms.
• Encouraging private sector participation and boosting investment in several sectors, including space activities.
• Facilitating Efficient Airspace Management for Civil Aviation.
• Improve autonomy, accountability and efficiency in Defence Production.
• Implementing a Tariff Policy Reform pertaining to Consumer Rights, Industry Promotion and Sector-Sustainability.

      GOVERNMENT REFORMS^[6]

• Promoting India as one of the easiest business locations by modifying the Ease of Doing Business Reforms relating to easy registration of property, fast disposal of commercial disputes and simpler tax regime. 
• Facilitating Technology-Driven Education via PM eVIDYA programme
• Increasing investments in the Public Health Sector to not only combat the present pandemic but also prepare for future pandemics.
• Supporting State Governments & promoting state-level reforms.
• Modifying policies to allow for the privatization of various sectors, while upholding the prominence of Public Service Enterprises in defined areas. 

Overall Stimulus Provided by the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Package

Problems

The earlier fiscal relief measures along with RBI’s measures constitute ₹9,94,403 crores, which leaves an effective amount of ₹11,02,650 crores. Thus, the immediate fiscal boost announced with such grandeur by the government is quite less than the promised amount because of the inclusion of RBI’s monetary measures, despite both being independent institutions. Direct investment by the government in the form of a boost to the aggregate demand guarantees immediate impetus to the economy, however, that might not be the case with the government’s indirect measures and RBI’s credit easing because the banks, instead of lending, might park the money back with the RBI, thus, rendering its help ineffective. Even if the banks transmit the liquidity measures from RBI to the citizens, the transmission procedure will not be smooth due to the prevailing inefficiency of monetary policy transfers.

The economic package includes a lot of measures spread over 5 tranches. However, there exists the problem of implementing those measures. A classic example is the provision of collateral-free automatic loans to MSMEs. There is a high risk of non-return to banks in such cases unless the businesses end up earning high-profits amidst a global crisis, that is if the MSMEs get the required loans after overcoming the hurdles of meeting the high credit score criteria, bearing high processing costs followed by tedious procedures, and still not receiving the entire amount applied for. 

Conclusion

Both ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan’ and the ‘Make In India Campaign’ attempt to attract Foreign Direct Investment by laying emphasis on the promotion of local products to help with the declining job market. However, this causes a critical problem in a developing country like India which needs to depend on cost-effective imports of several products in which it does not have a comparative advantage and the domestic production of which will lead to increased manufacturing cost, thus, leading to the loss of a competitive edge in the Global Market. Although, Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan does possess an advantage due to the inclusion of agriculture, which had been neglected all this while.

Although the package is very comprehensive and caters to the needs of all people, past history of failures due to the presence of corrupt bureaucracy raises the question of whether the relief package will have its desired effect. However, if the package is properly implemented and people are educated about the schemes through various drives and trained to utilize the benefits available to them, then there exists the possibility of success of the package through economic upliftment of the nation.

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