Yes, I am fully aware of the fact that nothing lives forever. The second law of Thermodynamics quite clearly indicates that the universe will perish as it attains a state of maximum entropy, devoid of any gradient needed to sustain information processing, one form of which is life. In what way that happens, will ultimately depend upon the shape and the amount of dark energy in the universe. But then, that event is trillions of years away.

On the other hand, theological cosmogony, particularly the Vedic time scale mentions a cyclic timeline that repeats itself forever, fundamentally divided into the four Yugas and then Manvantaras and Kalpas, ultimately culminating itself with the dissolution of Lord Brahma into the Para Brahm. This doctrine also attempts to describe the history of human evolution.

Now, in modern times, the prevailing theory of Survival of the Fittest explains that human beings are a result of the gradual evolution process starting from single-cell organisms. But the Four Yuga system speaks of the declining journey of human beings across the ages. Kali Yuga, the contemporary Yuga, is described as a time when human civilization degenerates spiritually. Common attributes and consequences mentioned about this Yuga are spiritual bankruptcy, mindless hedonism, breakdown of all social structure, greed, materialism, unrestricted egotism, afflictions and maladies of mind and body.

Personally, I have never paid serious heed to these principles. Like I mentioned earlier, I am an optimistic futurist. I think the best days of humanity are well ahead of us. A time where we employ our intelligence, intuition, wisdom and our mastery over technology to create an utopia, colonising worlds, seeding them with life, undertaking engineering at planetary or stellar scales, building Dyson Spheres, Alderson Disks and Matrioshka Brains. As optimistic as I am, I also never expected this fantastic journey to be smooth and rapid. I knew it would take thousands of years and is ultimately a subject to our triumph over some occasional but nonetheless potent hurdles that threaten to end our civilisation like nuclear or biological warfare, cosmic extinction events, the threat of artificial intelligence etc. but the same optimism in me has led me to believe that these hurdles are mere technological challenges, which will be overcome by our ingenuity, resilience and the exponential growth of our technological proficiency over time.

However, in the past few days, a certain prediction about the current era, from various theological perspectives has caught my attention. The aforementioned prediction about humanity’s spiritual degradation. We might be able to fight most of our existential threats with technology but can we overcome spiritual degradation with the same optimistic attitude and technology as a weapon in our arsenal? Are we, as I speak, gradually witnessing the same decline in human civilization mentioned in our Vedic doctrine of time? For instance, some of the narratives of Kali Yuga, mentioned in the scriptures refer to a time when avarice and wrath are common and humans openly display animosity towards each other.

Truthfulness, cleanliness, tolerance and mercy diminish with each passing day. People cultivate thoughts of murder with no justification and feel no remorse. Lust is viewed as socially acceptable and sex is seen as the central requirement of life. Virtue fades way and ceases to flourish. People become addicted to intoxicating drinks and drugs and no longer get married, rather choosing to live with each other just for sexual pleasure. Weather and the environment degrade with time bringing infrequent and unpredictable rain. Diseases and fake ideologies spread throughout the world and the powerful dominate the poor. One glance into the world today and it’s quite easy to observe the kind of spiritual degradation being talked about in those scriptures. We’ve achieved wonders with our mastery over technology but does our journey and growth in the spiritual realm need introspection and scrutiny? Has our species declined in virtue? Are we unknowingly plummeting into this demonic illusion of greed, lust, malice and jealousy? People are being killed for petty reasons, there exist unimaginable divisions between the rich and the poor. The sanctity of relationships is gone, replaced with lust and social utility. Are we becoming way too practical and logical for our own good? Was my optimism and pragmatic approach about the future in vain?

For many of us, these questions might seem to be of the rhetorical kind, designed to tap into our personal insecurities but I honestly think it’s time to stop, pull over for a while and introspect, whether we’re travelling in the path we ought to be and doing something that culminates into the greater good or tumbling into a future that begets a fiery cataclysm of destruction.

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Rise of Genghis Khan — Invasions and Conquests

His conquests included the Western Xia Dynasty, Jin Dynasty, Qara Khitai, Khwarazmid Empire, Georgia, Kievan Rus, Volga, Bulgaria and other territories spanning many, many more kingdoms and all of this took him only 21 years. The Mongol Empire by the time of his death in 1227, spanned over 12 million square kilometers, effectively more than twice the size of Alexander’s empire.

At its height in 1279, it spanned to over 23 million square kilometers, more than four times the size of Alexander’s empire. It stretched all the way from the Gulf of Finland in the far west, the Arabian Gulf in the far south to the East China Sea in the far east. The routes and trails of his conquests are a matter of debate but he probably went from Mongolia to Manchuria, Korea, Xinjiang, Kazakhstan, the Aral Sea, the Caspian Sea and then to northern Iran in those 21 years.

It is particularly interesting to estimate how many kilometers of traveling would those conquests be per year, on an average. Considering the fact that he managed to conquer around 571,428 square kilometers of land on an average per year, during his entire 21 years of conquest, it roughly amounts to around 1,565 square kilometers on an average per day and 65 square kilometers on an average per hour.

Of course, he didn’t acquire new territories every day throughout that time but when he did, he vanquished an unbelievable number of kingdoms in record time. In doing so, Khan is estimated to have killed around 40 million people or roughly 10% of the world’s population at that time. Being an adherent of a nomadic Mongolian faith called Tengrism, he spared no one and massacred Muslims, Christians, Buddhists and Jews alike. In fact, he is said to have reduced two-thirds of Iran’s population, all by himself.

In contrast, Alexander conquered roughly 530,000 square kilometers of land on an average per year during his 10 years of conquest. That amounts to around 60 square kilometers of territory gained per hour. The numbers are surprisingly pretty close for both of them.

But then, Genghis Khan was probably a greater victor overall because his life was much harder than Alexander’s and he was able to become the ruler of all the Mongols despite very humble origins, and he ultimately became the founder of the world’s largest contiguous empire, which, unlike the British Empire, only took 21 years to create in that day and age.

An interesting fact about Ghengis Khan

An interesting fact about Ghengis Khan discovered in recent times is that, according to a historical genetics paper published in 2003, one in every two hundred men are direct descendants of him. So believe it or not, you and me both could very well be a descendant of this great conqueror and astonishing figure of human history.

I am the flail of god. Had you not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.

Genghis Khan

Featured Image: Artstation/@Thahn Tuan

The post THE BRUTAL BRILLIANT MONGOL LEADER: GENGHIS KHAN appeared first on WISER WORLD.

Sorry to call out the spade again and again, but do you really not see how pathetic and pointless that is?

Unless there are viable alternatives for you to switch to, whining about what Facebook, Twitter, Instagram or WhatsApp does in terms of policies and business model, will be just that – whining.

You have signed up to use their services. If you wish to continue, you have to agree with whatever they come up with. You have a choice to leave. But no alternative to go to. And it is this conundrum that any private company with a monopoly in the market it operates shall capitalize. There are no ifs, nor buts here.

Seeing a lot of hullabaloo about WhatsApp’s new policies. Your this data will be shared. Your that data will be shared. But ask yourself. Is it really that surprising? When you click on a cute little link to find out when you will die, or how you will look like the opposite gender, are you not consenting to share your info already?

Here’s the thing you need to understand once and for all. In this digital age, everything you put up online is accessible by others. In some way or another. And privacy in this context is just a fancy word, with no real meaning, nor applicability.

The only thing you should be mindful about is whether or not you have something to hide. If yes, then you need to remove yourself from the online world completely. If no, then which app collects what data of you, shouldn’t bother you at all.

This is how the new world is. You are either in it. Or completely cut off. There is no middle ground. So, make up your mind. And stop whining about it.

Featured Illustration By: Glenn Harvey

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“Everybody is a genius in a bull market” — Mark Cuban 

What is a Bubble? 

A bubble is an economic cycle driven by sentiments leading to the rapid growth of index valuation, followed by a sudden downfall. Due to the increase in prices, investors refrain from parking their money in the equity market. This results in a huge sell-off causing the bubble to deflate. This increase in index valuation is dependent on various factors. 

What Might Be the Possible Factors Fuelling the Rally? 

● High Liquidity:- A sudden halt experienced in business activities generated unemployed capital. Businesspersons diverted this unused cash in hand towards equity markets resulting in an increase in demand. They viewed the continuous extensions of the lockdown as a financially gainful opportunity and thus increased investment in the equity markets. Banks were directed to increase liquidity in the economy as well. 

● New Investors:- The interruption of the activities of the tertiary sector and academic institutions created a new group of investors. College students, working professionals and business persons alike started investing vigorously in a not-so-risk-free equity market. DEMAT account openings witnessed a sudden rise of 22.9% in the current year. In India, 

the number of DEMATs accounts has now rallied to 4.9 million. New to the scenario, these investors who have little to no knowledge of stock market operations, blindly followed the bull-run and contributed to the rally. 

● Global Sentiments:- Indian markets have always closely followed the American markets. The Federal Bank of USA has been keen on increasing liquidity in the American economy. Resultantly, NASDAQ and DJIA have reached record highs. Indian stock market has been following the path and now witnessing a continuous rally like their American counterpart. 

● The hope of reopening:- In the initial stages of the imposition of the lockdown, it was forecasted that development would impede for 6-8 months. Panic selling caused equity markets to go haywire. Duly, the indices hit two lower circuits in a single week and wiped out almost Rs. 14.22 Lakh Crore from the equity markets. Remarkably, the economy started getting back on track within a couple of months and the businesses started functioning. Therefore, the equity market went on to correct itself and retraced almost 67.30%. 

Despite these positive sentimental events, the stock market is fundamentally weak and might run into correcting itself soon, causing a fall. 

When Can the Fall Come? 

The ‘Dot Com’ bubble lasted for almost 5 years from 1995 to 2000 which indicates the unpredictable time frame of the crash. Likewise, the stock market might take more than a few days before correcting itself, especially due to the recent vaccine development speculations and hopes of economic recovery. 

What Could Lead to the Fall? 

• Trade War:- China and U.S. are in the midst of a trade face-off. The two superpowers have been in a tussle for a while and any further sanctions might lead to a global breakdown. 
•  Failure in Vaccine Development:- One of the major reasons for the rally in the equity markets was based on hopes of early vaccine development for COVID-19. If the major companies like Pfizer fail do develop the vaccine, a huge sell-off may occur leading to a crash. 
•  Indo-China Clash:- NIFTY 50 had shed almost 150 points in 20 minutes on 16/06/2020 when the news about border tensions between India and China first broke out. This indicated how equity markets reacted to such news. While the situation is stable now, any further actions on this front by either government may break the equity market. 
• Lockdown:- Indian economy has managed to survive the previous national lockdown and the subsequent extensions. Now, the government is posed with the choice of choosing between saving its people or saving the economy. Although a complete lockdown might be required to stop the spread of the virus, further extensions might break the backbone of the Indian economy, potentially leading to a huge crash. 

Indicators of Reversal 

• Fibonacci Retracement shows that the markets might reverse from 11,382 and might go down to 10800, 10350 and might even break to 9900 levels. The markets have already corrected more than 67% and a reversal is on cards. 
• Fundamentals suggest a huge turn around in the markets. With Q1 earnings release round the corner, sentiments can weaken which could be devastating for the markets.
• Shiller PE Ratio The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE, Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio, is a valuation measure usually applied to the Indices. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings, adjusted for inflation. 

Conclusion

In the coming quarters, there is a risk of GDP growth rate in India taking a negative turn. The sentiments will be conclusive in shaping the equity markets. In addition, vaccine development, economic recovery and global cues might well decide the course of the markets. 

Technical and fundamental analysis of the Indices indicates a potential reversal. Buyers must remain cautious now. 

The indices usually correct themselves abruptly. In such cases, blind investors often get trapped. Consequently, any investment should be made cautiously and any directional trades should be hedged appropriately. 

The post INDIAN STOCK MARKET BUBBLE 2020 appeared first on WISER WORLD.

Tourism has emerged as a rapidly flourishing industry in the world as a premise for economic growth, employment and business generation. Travel & Tourism is one of the world’s largest economic sectors, supporting one in 10 jobs (330 million) worldwide, and generating a total of 10.3% of global GDP. The direct and total contribution of travel and tourism to the worldwide GDP in 2019 was US$2892.94B and US$9258.29B respectively.

The inclination is more outstanding betwixt the developing nation. The status of tourism in the South-Pacific-Asian countries in general and India, by and large, can be considered as a classic example.

Travel & Tourism role in India’s growth

In India, Travel and Tourism directly generated US$1.3B and 27,404 jobs in 2019. Taking its wider indirect and induced impacts into account, as of 2019, 4.2M jobs were generated in the tourism sector which was 8.1 per cent of total employment in the country and total contribution US$268.29B in 2019. 

According to the WTTC report, India ranked at 3rd position among 185 countries in terms of travel & tourism’s total contribution to GDP in 2018. International Tourists arrival is expected to reach 30.5M by 2028. Total contribution by the travel and tourism sector to India’s GDP is expected to surge from US$ 234.03B in 2017 to US$ 492.21B in 2028. Total income from the sector in India stood at US$ 28.6B in 2018 and is targeted to reach US$ 50B by 2022.

Tourism and rising concerns

However, with the explosive growth of the sector, the long-term sustainability of tourism as a factor of development is frequently being framed to be questioned, particularly because of its significant adverse effects on the environment, fast consumption of natural resources, socio-cultural etc. The massive growth of the sector over the last decade has become increasingly concerning subject. 

As a result, there is now a soaring interest to promote sustainable tourism to maximise its ecological impact and to maximise socio-economic, in general,  privileges at tourist destinations. The World Tourism Organization (WTO) developed the concept of sustainable tourism, in the context of the United Nations sustainable development process, refers to tourist activities “leading to management of all resources in such a way that economic, social and aesthetic needs can be fulfilled while maintaining cultural integrity, essential ecological processes, biological diversity and life support systems”. 

What is sustainable tourism?

A central idiosyncrasy of sustainable tourism is its ability to associate environmental integrity, social equity and economic prosperity, commonly referred to as the triple bottom line, attributes of sustainability and to function as an incentive for their joint reinforcement.

Sustainable Tourism can provide the comprehensive potential of the tourism sector because it can benefit to design more effective policies and meticulously planned strategies to realize the full social and economic potential of the tourism sector.

Sustainability policies pertaining to the ecological, economic, and socio-cultural regards of sustainable tourism development, and a seemly equipoise must be set up within these three domains to ensure its abiding sustainability. 

Steps towards sustainability

– Follow a systematic approach to make optimal use of natural resources, maintaining essential ecological processes and focus on conservation of natural heritage and biodiversity.

– Honour and be kind to the host communities socio-cultural traditional values, abstain the exploitation of their resources and heritage site, impart to inter-cultural beliefs and focus on giving back to the community through the volunteer work. 

– Enact economic sustainability, aiming for both long-term and immediate profitability goals, fairly disseminate socio-economic gain among the various stakeholders in the supply chain, including the opportunities of employment for the host communities following poverty reduction strategies.

Reasons for sustainable tourism

Sustainable is not sufficient but necessary requirement for the flourishing environment and tourism in the long run. As we have observed, the demand for sustainable tourism is increasing up.

Making eco-friendly choices in tourist accommodation are beneficial for reasons:

1. Creating an added value for the travel places to guests more interested in this issue.
2. Reduction in the costs and consumptions (energy, water and waste in general), the GHG emission.
3. Help to Generate employment in the supply chain and produce skilled labours.
4. Improve the performance and profitability of local tourism businesses.
5. To encourage extensive local participation in community-based tourism.
6. Increase the number of women entrepreneurs in the sector.
7. Offers authenticate experiences.
8. Contribute to poverty alleviation.

and the list of benefits of sustainability goes on.

The post Travel & Tourism Sector: Sustainable tourism and why is it essential? appeared first on WISER WORLD.

This is a complete peculiarity, as the substantiation of successful ideas is shown through their implementation and not through their theoretical analysis. Every idea seems to be the perfect and unique solution when having been only applied on paper but being introduced in society is a much different thing.

Cooperation or Oppression?

Marx severely criticises the State to, later on, justify the dictatorship of the proletariat, which means building up a new and renovated State, but now in hands of the ones Marx considers should govern. Through this system, the proletariat will end up being the high class of society just by following the State’s structure, as it is a monopoly that benefits consistently those who are in in the Administration.

Marx portrays capitalism as an inhumane ideology that has been promoted by a lack of knowledge. How can an ideology that is based on shared knowledge and distributed information for the correct and efficient function of markets be based on a lack of knowledge?

Capitalism in brief

Capitalism is just the free Exchange of good and services following the wills of households without the State intervention, but with the State protection through the enforcement of the rule of law, which provides security for contracts and allows freedom of transaction and trade to be protected from fraudulent external agents.

One of Marx’s greatest lies is that which says that “merchants and entrepreneurs are expropriating wealth from workers through the concept of capital gain or surpluses”. The reality is that this exploitation really doesn’t exist, as contracts are voluntary and previously negotiated but never enforced. Those poverty conditions and high costs of living which sometimes force workers to accept a salary below their needs are created by the same socialist thinkers and politicians that impose capital gain tax or wage tax of over 40% or 50%. It is true that governments can’t raise wages, but they can increase disposable income and purchasing power, how? By slashing taxes.

Marxists in their capital gain theory don’t take into account investment in real capital, either fixed or circulating, which needs to be done by the entrepreneur and has an implicit risk in it, as any kind of investment. A large part of the revenue generated by a firm is due to capital expenditure and not so much due to workers and their added value. For example, in a denim factory, without a machine to wash, dry and transform fabric, it will be impossible for the workers to produce denim at the volume and speed they actually do.

In this case, the cost of capital (investment) which is confronted by the entrepreneur, will have a risk of not being returned and even generate losses, which is why all revenue and profits generated by capital (capital productivity) is usually reinvested in the firm’s future operations or just enjoyed by the entrepreneur due to the risk implicit in the investment, which is usually called return of investment (ROI), or risky return in high-risk operations.

Marxists in the today’s world employ a concept that never matches with reality. To what Marxists are referring with the term “neoliberalism” is really to mercantilism, which is an ideology that was widely put into practice from the 16th-18th century in Europe, based on interventionist State policies in the economy, which lead to the creation of monopolies and autarchies, through subsidization of unproductive sectors which are considered of “national relevance”, and through tight control of monetary policy and outflow of fiat money, to control inflation. It is necessary to bear in mind, that what Marxists normally criticise as capitalism is really “neomercantilism”.

Price controls are an important Marxist measure. Price controls were one of the main proposals of Marx to “abolish capitalism and lead to the dictatorship of the proletariat” from the State. The argument that Price fixation could work is based on the false Intrinsic theory of value, that sustains that each fair price, independently if it is intrinsic or objective, should be fixed by the State based on the amount of labour that has been put into its production.

To simply argue this theory, it is valid to say how these rules will cause enterprises to look forward to a capital-intensive model, reducing prices and being more competitive in the market, and as communists tend to don’t like this, they will finally end up performing several expropriations of private firms and premises, ending up as Cuba or Venezuela sunken in misery.

The failed Utopia

Marxism has shown in various different ways that it is a utopian ideology which promotes economic inefficiency which leads to poverty and hunger. His theories are based just on subjective forms and never on practical studies which have resulted valid when applied to reality. Marxism has caused hundreds of millions of deaths throughout history. It has been estimated that at least 150 million people may have died (more than that of in WWII) at the hands of Marxist regimes around the world. (source) Every communist regime in the 20th century strived or succeeded in imposing cruel and comprehensive dictatorship over the societies under their power, what they call rights of proletariats. Mind control through agitprop, restraint, and persuasion were rigorously put into effect to inculcate “socialist values” and destroy bourgeois, capitalist thinking.

It is not just that Marx failed as an economist by not being able to create a system of efficient growth and progress, but instead, he depicted a system of starvation, death and misery. As a futurologist, he was even less successful, as he predicted the end of capitalism based on his theory of dialectic materialism, but even nowadays in 2020, capitalism is still alive and stronger than ever. We have had to pass through several hard crises, but capitalism has always survived.

The post CAPITALISM VS SOCIALISM: RELEVANCE OF MARXISM THEORY IN TODAY’S WORLD appeared first on WISER WORLD.

Even if you are a non-smoker, you are not forborne as around 6.5 trillion cigarettes are sold around the world each year, which translates to roughly 18 billion cigarettes per day. Those exposed to passive smoke are at higher risks of undergoing from most of the diseases and health complications associated with first-hand smoking. Moreover, exposure to passive smoking is rather more harmful as exhaled smoke contains toxic metals like carcinogens and poisonous gases

Smoking cigarettes affects the respiratory system, the circulatory system, the reproductive system, vision and physical appearance as well.

Respiratory System

When you inbreathe smoke, you are taking in toxin substances like nicotine, carbon monoxide, hydrogen cyanide and other 4,000 chemicals that can damage your lungs. Over a period, this damage leads to a variety of problems. Along with the increased risk of infections, people who smoke are at higher risk for chronic irreversible lung conditions. As a result, smoking:

• causes lung diseases, including the majority of cases of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD);
• makes chronic lung diseases severe,
• increases the risk of respiratory infections,
• smoking increases a person’s risk of getting tuberculosis.

Children whose parents smoke are more prone to coughing, wheezing, and asthma attacks than children whose parents don’t. They also tend to have higher rates of pneumonia and bronchitis.

Circulatory System

When you smoke, the poisons from the tar in your cigarettes enter your blood. These poisons in your blood then:

• Make your blood thicker, and increase chances of clot formation
• Increase your blood pressure and heart rate, making your heart work harder than normal
• Narrow your arteries, reducing the amount of oxygen-rich blood circulating to your organs.

Reproduction System

In males, smoke toxins can cause male erectile dysfunction, impotency and decrease in sexual pleasure, as it damages the blood vessels that supply blood to the genital area. It can also damage sperm quality; lower sperm count and sex hormones. According to international health protocols, smoking just two cigarettes a day can lead to a decreased ability to have an erection. According to outlook India, impotence affects over 50 per cent of males above 40, and one of the contributing cause is excessive smoking. 

For women, smoking can reduce fertility. The study estimated that the fertility of smoking women was 28% less than that of non-smokers. One study found that smokers were over three times more likely than non-smokers to have taken more than one year to conceive. Smoking while you are pregnant can lead to miscarriage, premature birth, stillbirth and illness, and it increases the risk of cot death by at least 25%. According to studies, smokers reach menopause about 18 months earlier than a non-smoker. Smoking can also result in sexual dissatisfaction by decreasing lubrication and the ability to attain orgasm.

Smoking effects on Eyesights

Smoking can lead to eye problems, blurred vision and in worst cases vision loss. Studies show smoking increases the risk of age-related macular degeneration, cataracts, glaucoma and diabetic retinopathy and Dry Eye Syndrome.

• Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD)
  • One way to reduce the risk of developing AMD is by NOT smoking. Smokers are three to four times more likely to develop AMD than nonsmokers. Nonsmokers living with smokers almost double their risk of developing AMD.
• Cataract
  • Heavy smokers (15 cigarettes/day or more) have up to three times the risk of cataract as nonsmokers.
• Glaucoma
  • There is a strong link between smoking and high blood pressure, cataracts and diabetes all of which are risk factors for glaucoma.
• Diabetic Retinopathy
  • Smoking can increase your chances of getting diabetes. It can also make managing diabetes more difficult for those who already have it. Complications of diabetes made worse by smoking include retinopathy, heart disease, stroke, vascular disease, kidney disease, nerve damage, foot problems and many others.
• Dry Eye Syndrome
  • Dry Eye Syndrome is more than twice as likely to impact smokers as non-smokers.

Smoking effects on Integumentary System 

Skin

Smoking untimely ages your skin. Smoking affects the blood vessels and reduces the amount of oxygen that reaches your skin. This means that if you smoke, your skin ages more quickly and looks grey and dull. The toxins in your body also cause cellulite.

Smoke toxins damage collagen and elastin, two major factors of the skin, consequences to sagging & drooping skin, arms, breasts and wrinkles. Smokers are more sensitive to the development of age spots & psoriasis, an unsightly and often uncomfortable skin condition.

Nails

Smoking tobacco causes brittle, dry, cracked and slow growth of fingernails and toenails. In addition to it they get prone to fungal infection than non-smoker person. Smoking also discolours the skin of the nails.

Hair

Smoking can worsen the natural process of hair thinning, damaged hair follicles & scalp environment. It also increased DHT & head oil secretion. Some research shows that baldness & hair loss is more common in men who smoke; studies from Taiwan show that male-pattern baldness risk increases in Asian men who smoke.

Even exposure of passive smoke can result into mentioned severe conditions in a non-smoker.

• Bladder
• Blood (acute myeloid leukaemia)
• Cervix
• Colon and rectum (colorectal)
• Oesophagus
• Kidney and ureter
• Larynx
• Liver
• Oropharynx (includes parts of the throat, tongue, soft palate, and the tonsils)
• Pancreas
• Stomach
• Trachea, bronchus, and lung

Smoking and the environment

Research has found that tobacco cultivation (mostly in rainforest areas) contributes significantly to deforestation and degradation of the environment. The process of cultivating tobacco requires a large number of chemicals and toxic materials which generates a huge amount of wastes such as pesticides and fertilizers. The industrial processing and the burning of cigarettes append a large volume of air pollutants in the atmosphere. In 2015, 1,312,796 pounds of toxic chemicals were reported disposed off, or otherwise released, from tobacco facilities. From the process of cultivation and the industrial process to smoking cigarettes involves the emission of a lot of Green House Gases, a major cause of global warming. 

Cigarettes causing Water Pollution and Adverse Effects on Animals

Soil and land pollution through farming and from cigarette butts. Cigarette filters are produced from cellulose acetate, a plastic which only degrades under severe biological circumstances. In practice, cigarette butts tossed on streets and beaches do not decompose. Since 1980s, cigarette butts have consistently held 30 to 40 per cent of all items collected in annual international coastal and urban clean-ups. Even under optimal conditions, it can take at least nine months for a cigarette butt to degrade. 

Aquatic environment and fishes are particularly affected by the cigarettes in several ways. Fish ingest the cigarette filters resembling fish food which reduces their stomach capacity and thus change in eating habits. Similarly, pets pick it which later leads to dysfunction of their body system. Even humans are not spared if by any chance they consume the affected fish or animal. 

Forest Fire accidents due to smoking

Forest fires started by the burning cigarette butt fire are countless. About 17,000 people worldwide die each year because of fires started by cigarette lighters or discarded burning cigarettes. In terms of property damage, the losses are more than 27 billion US dollars every year. Further, such forest fires are damaging to the environment causing biodiversity loss, habitat loss, air pollution, deforestation and the death of humans and wild animals. A forest fire started by a cigarette butt in the year 1987 in China killed 300 people, left 5,000 other homeless and destroyed approximately 1.3 million hectares of land.

Quitting

While quitting smoking can be challenging but not impossible. There are now more former smokers than current smokers. You can take help of your doctor in planning and medication. Your loved ones can be your mental support in tough times.

Once a person stops smoking, the benefits start concentrating. These include clearer skin, improved oral health, more stable hormone levels, a stronger immune system, and a reduced risk of many types of cancers.

Some other benefits of quitting smoking include:

• After 20 minutes–12 hours: Heart rate and carbon monoxide in the blood drop to normal levels.
• After 1 year: The risk of a heart attack is much lower, as is blood pressure. Coughing and upper respiratory problems begin to improve.
• After 2–5 years: The risk of stroke drops to that of someone who does not smoke, according to the CDC.
• After 5–15 years: The risk of mouth, throat, oesophagus, and bladder cancer is reduced by half.
• After 10 years: The risk of lung cancer and bladder cancer is half that of someone who currently smokes.
• After 15 years: The risk of heart disease is similar to that of someone who never smoked.

Bottom line

So, by far you’ve clearly concluded that smoking kills just not you but the earth. It’s an hour of action now. Take a step against it and inspire others too!

Will You?

References:

• (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.nhs.uk/smokefree/why-quit/smoking-health-problems
• Medicalnewstoday.com. 2020. 10 Effects Of Smoking Cigarettes. [online] Available at: <https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/324644#quitting> [Accessed 1 May 2020].
• Health.ny.gov. 2020. [online] Available at: <https://www.health.ny.gov/prevention/tobacco_control/docs/smoking_can_lead_to_vision_loss_or_blindness.pdf> [Accessed 1 May 2020].
• Truth Initiative. 2020. Tobacco And The Environment. [online] Available at: <https://truthinitiative.org/research-resources/harmful-effects-tobacco/tobacco-and-environment> [Accessed 1 May 2020].
• Conserve Energy Future. 2020. 10 Serious Effects Of Cigarette Smoking On Environment And Human Health – Conserve Energy Future. [online] Available at: <https://www.conserve-energy-future.com/serious-effects-cigarette-smoking-environment-and-human-health.php> [Accessed 1 May 2020].
• Healthline. 2020. 26 Health Effects Of Smoking On Your Body. [online] Available at: <https://www.healthline.com/health/smoking/effects-on-body#6> [Accessed 1 May 2020].

The post Smoking Kills not just you but Earth | World No Tobacco Day appeared first on WISER WORLD.

Oil Price War Explained

Well, it all started with the Russia-Saudi oil price war 2020. Behind this was an effective collapse of an agreement between OPEC and Russia to enact production cuts to support the market. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, wanted deeper and more prolonged cuts to counter the effect of the spread of coronavirus on demand. The International energy agency said that oil consumption is expected to contract this year by 1.5 million barrels per day for the first time since 2009.

Despite this Russia refused the OPEC decision, believing the bigger cuts in production would only propel rival US shale producers. In response, on 8 March 2020, Saudi Arabia launched an oil price war after Russia deal to collapse. Even as the world requires less oil from global producers, the kingdom said it would put 2.6 million barrels a day into the oil market. This triggered a tit-for-tat response from rivals. Russia said it would add more oil into the market and so did the UAE. The UAE announced an increase in production to 4 million barrels per day, higher than the country’s estimated output capacity of 3.5 million bpd.

Aftermath

It’s the first time since the 1930s that we’re seeing such a severe demand shock now combined with a supply shock facilitating  65% quarterly fall in the price of oil. Since the beginning of the price war consumption fell drastically due to depressed demand and insufficient storage mainly because of coronavirus pandemic.

Saudi Aramco announced a cut in capital expenditures from $35–40 billion planned to $25–30 billion. Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil producers also announced price discounts to their buyers, though Iraq’s discount was lower than that of Saudi Arabia’s. The US-based company, Whiting Petroleum Corporation, which produced 120,000 barrels per day, was the first major producer to declare bankruptcy due to the oil price crash. The oil price war is one of the major causes and effects of the currently ongoing global stock-market crash. Norway, Europe’s largest oil exporter, saw a drop in its currency to historic lows against the Euro (source).

In terms of India…

World Bank says Remittances will plunge by more $100bn. This will bite hard as FDI is set to fall 35%, equity & debt flows are expected to fall 80% to low and middle-income countries. India will be hit too especially with flows from the Gulf drying up. India’s remittances are estimated to fall ~23% to $64 bn in 2020.

However, in Russia Saudi oil price war, India can be a big winner by taking advantage of the fall in oil prices and can stock its reserves. India has a storage capacity of 39 million barrels, China’s total capacity is at 550 million barrels and Japan’s at 528 million barrels, ensuring a supply of over 190 days in the event of a supply disruption. If India can increase its storage capacity, then it can be a very good deal for India. 

One more advantage Indian Markets can demonstrate i.e, in the area of Bonds. Still, compared to the Global Markets, Bond yield in India is comparatively attractive. With TLTRO 2.0, Corporates like RIL, NHPC have started issuing bonds. This can be an attractive opportunity for FIIs to capitalize.

On 9 April, OPEC and Russia’s historic deal marks the end of the oil price war by agreeing to reduce the oil production by 10 million BPD to boost the price and let the market forces get stable.

In future, the crude oil prices are expected to make more new lows as long as this global pandemic continues.

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The US has been importing crude oil from 1915-1932. But the country was still a “net exporter” because the export of refined products exceeded the crude oil imports. But after the second world war, the US consumption outpaced production again and in 1947 they became a “net importer” again. Until 1955 the US produced more than 50% of the world’s entire oil production. And until 1964 they remained the largest oil producer, but then the Middle East took over. At around 1984 the US oil production was about 18% of the total world production.

The oil industry: Recent history & OPEC

In 1950 the Middle East produced around 1.8 million barrels of oil per day (mmbbl/d), that was about 17% of the world’s production. And this increased to 5.2 mmbbl/d in 1960, by then around 24% of the world production. To protect its own oil industry, the US introduced mandatory import quotas which limited the imports of the Middle East crude oil. This kept the oil price in the US sort of constant, but “non-US crude oil” decreased in value since a major part of their market (the US) was inaccessible due to the quotas.

And as an answer to this, the OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) was formed in 1960 by 5 major oil-exporting countries: Venezuela, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq.

In 1970 the US relaxed its import quotas. And after the Yom Kippur war of 1973, in which the price of oil went up significantly, the developments in oil prices were relatively stable after 1974. Oil prices where high and this made it attractive to explore and develop oil areas that were not of economic interest in the past. As a result, major investments were made in new oil areas in Alaska, Mexico and the North Sea. And these areas started to produce oil by the end of the 70s. This resulted again in a large decrease in OPEC production after 1977 as a result of these new areas. Btw, OPEC produced in 1977 the high amount of 31.3 mmbbl/d.

Concerning oil prices, the Iranian Revolution drove the spot price of OPEC oil to 25 USD bbl in 1979. And this resulted in another round of oil price increases to over 40 USD bbl. But these price increases were poorly timed because world demand was falling and many new oil fields outside OPEC were getting more and more operational. Then mild winters in 1982 and 1982 in Western Europe resulted in even more oversupply, and oil-importing countries did not need to buy the expensive OPEC oil anymore. This resulted in that OPEC production was about 15 mmbbl/d in 1985, less than half of its production in 1977 (31.3 mmbbl/d, as mentioned). This had a severe effect on oil prices, and when in 1986 OPEC production went to 18 mmbbl/d the price collapsed to below 10 USD bbl. And since 1986 OPEC attempts to maintain the oil price at the level of the full cost of non-OPEC supply.

The oil companies: Standard Oil

Most of the big oil companies had their origins in the US when the “Drake Oil Field” was found in 1859 in Pennsylvania. The first big company formed was then “Standard Oil” with the financing of John D. Rockefeller. By the end of the 1870s, over 90% of all kerosene was passing through standard oil’s facilities. The company got so big that the whole company “Standard Oil Trust”; consisting out of Standard Oil New Jersey, Standard Oil Ohio etc. etc., needed to be divided. The US supreme court ordered this in 1911.

And the main oil companies as we know (knew) them were formed out of Standard Oil:

• Standard Oil of New Jersey became: Exxon;
• Standard Oil of New York became: Mobil (before merger Exxon);
• Standard Oil of California became: Chevron;
• Standard Oil of Ohio became: Sohio (before taken over by BP);
• Standard Oil of Indiana became: Amoco (before taken over by BP);
• Continental Oil became: Conoco;
• Atlantic Oil became: Sun Oil.

The oil companies: Royal Dutch & Shell Group

Despite early US dominance of the oil industry, there was another major player at the beginning of the 1900s.

The company was Royal Dutch Shell with a background in two companies:

• Royal Dutch;
• Shell Transport & Trading.

Shell Transport & Trading was set up late 1800 by Marcus Samuel, and the company transported kerosene in large quantities to the far eastern market. And Royal Dutch had its origins in the “Dutch East Indies” where for several years oil seepages had been reported. By 1892 Royal Dutch was producing oil with a crazy growth (sixfold increase) in only two years of time. By around 1900 there were takeover attempts of Standard Oil. And in order to resist this Royal Dutch and Shell Transport & Trading merged in 1907. So at the time of this merger in 1907, the oil market was dominated by Standard Oil and Royal Dutch Shell.

In the next blog in this sequence, I will continue by talking about the other companies in the oil industry. And I will discuss oil reserves and production.

And later all the other aspects of valuating these oil companies will be discussed in this sequence of blogs:

• The market for oil;
• Accounting issues for oil companies;
• Valuating “Oil exploration and production companies”;
• Valuating “Integrated oil companies”.

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Nobody on this planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of the climate change

From the wide-open green lands to the well-industrialised society, we have come across a long way. It’s the 21st century and in today’s age we, humans, have developed so many appliances to make our life comfortable and easy. Along the way to human evolution and generation, technology and innovation have made our life effortless. We can obviously count them as a sign of progress but one important thing which we can’t ignore over this is the cost we pay for this comfort, environmental degradation.

Glaciers are key indicators of climate change because they exhibit high responsiveness to climate change. Loss of sea ice expedited sea-level rise and longer, more intense heat waves. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which have more than 1,300 scientists and researchers from the US and other countries, predicts a temperature increase of 2.5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century. Global climate is predicted to continue to change over this century and beyond. The extent of climate change beyond the next few decades depends primarily on the amount of heat-trapping gases emitted globally. Because anthropogenic warming is superimposed on a naturally changing climate, the temperature rise has not been, and will not be, same or smooth across the country or over time. Average precipitation has increased since 1900, but some areas have had increases greater than the national average, and some areas have had decreases. Projections of future climate suggest that the recent trend towards risen heavy precipitation events will continue. This trend is projected to happen even in regions where total precipitation is expected to decrease, such as the Southwest. Droughts in the Southwest and heat waves everywhere are projected to become more severe, and cold waves less intense everywhere. Summer temperatures are projected to continue increasing, and a reduction of soil moisture, which intensifies heat waves, is projected in summer. The Arctic Ocean is suspected to become ice-free in summer before mid-century. Global sea level has surged by about 8 inches since 1880. It is forecasted to rise another 1 to 4 feet by 2100. This is the result of melting land ice.

The rise in global climate change over the years has become a most concerning issue for us to deal with and the industries, gadgets and vehicles we rely on so much are the prime causes of this deterioration. We cannot completely stop ourselves to recourse them which is also not an ideal approach but we can control the misuse and prevent the severe changes in the environment and that’s what we are trying to achieve with the discussed and calculated measures taken over a long period of climate negotiations.

A brief history of climate negotiations:

• In 1979, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) had organised the First World Climate Conference to evaluate existing knowledge of how higher meteorological greenhouse emitting gas concentration levels could drive an increase in average temperature. The Conference didn’t turn out any well because, from a political viewpoint, anthropogenic climate change was in those days mainly deemed as a theoretical possibility, incompletely supported by scientific proofs and surrounded by relatively large uncertainties.

• In 1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted and opened for signatures in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to stabilize “greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would deter dangerous interference with the climate system.

• The first Conference of the Parties (COP 1) to the UNFCCC was held in Berlin, Germany towards a protocol with quantified emission reduction targets to be achieved within a certain timeframe. 

• 1997—  the process resulted in the formation of the Kyoto Protocol at COP 3, in Kyoto, Japan. The Protocol proposed legally binding emissions targets for developed country Parties for the six major GHGs, which are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride. Nevertheless, negotiations towards the Kyoto Protocol had been slow. 

• 2005— COP 11 were held in Montreal, Canada. This conference was the first to take place after the long-pending Kyoto Protocol took force. The parties discussed issues such as “transfer of technologies, development and various financial and budget-related issues, the opposing effects of climate change on developing and least developed countries, comprising guidelines to the Global Environment Facility (GEF).” 

• 2007—  parties agreed to an action plan to assign GHG mitigation actions after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 at COP 13 held in Bali.

• 2009—  Developed nations pledged $100 billion for climate aid to developing countries.

• 2011— Parties agreed to the enhanced Action which is a structure to build a new international emissions abatement protocol at COP 17 was held in Durban, South Africa. The EU also agreed to stretch their Kyoto Protocol targets, which were scheduled to expire at the end of 2012, into a 2nd duty period from 2013-2017. 

• 2012— COP 18 was held in Doha, Qatar. Parties failed to set a roadmap to provide $100B per year by 2020 for developing countries to support climate change adaptation, as agreed upon at COP 15 in Copenhagen. The concept of “loss and damage” was introduced as developed countries promised to help developing countries and small island nations pay for the losses and damages from climate change that they are already experiencing.

• On 12 December 2015, Parties to the UNFCCC reached a historical agreement at COP 21 in Paris. The Paris Agreement was focussed to encourage the global acknowledgement to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to try efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

• In December 2017, One Planet Summit Results in Finance Commitments world leaders gather in Paris to illustrate how billions of dollars could be shifted towards a low-carbon future. Financial flows are crucial for countries’ national climate action plans under the Paris Agreement.

Impact of coronavirus on the environment:

Apart from the negative part, coronavirus has some positive effects on the environment. One of the main impacts of the coronavirus outbreak is a significant drop in air pollution which has been noted in many parts of the world. Many countries around the world have implemented lockdown and quarantine to slow down the spread of the virus and due to this flights have cancelled, many regions have experienced a drop in air pollution and fewer greenhouse gases being emitted and air quality have improved significantly and the earth’s ozone layer is also recovering. Slowing economic activities also bring down emissions as countries ordered closedown of schools, factories, industries and emissions are expected to fall. A study by specialist outlet Carbon Brief discovered that in China, GHG emissions have fallen by around 25%.  A drop in air pollution was first observed by NASA in China’s Hubei province, where the coronavirus outbreak began in December 2019, Marshall Burke, a researcher at Stanford University, calculated the improvements in air quality recorded in China may have saved the lives of 4,000 children under 5 years old and 73,000 adults over 70. 

India’s capital is one of the world’s most polluted cities, but its skies have turned blue and many people can see the Himalaya Mountains for the first time. Another surprising impact on the atmosphere from the coronavirus has been observed in Venice, Italy. With tourists numbers declined because of the virus, the waters in Venice’s canals are cleaner than they have been, so much so, in fact, that fish can be seen once again in the canals. One example is New York. Researchers have discovered that there has been a 5- to 10% fall in air pollutants like carbon dioxide in New York. Methane emissions have also dropped significantly. And a similar effect has been seen in northern Italy as well. All this is an unexpected upside of the coronavirus crisis that has proved global air quality can be dramatically improved – and fast. The change has been created by lockdowns that have grounded flights and shut factories. But environmentalists warn it could be temporary. 

Conclusion

Using the information from published research and news websites I’ve tried to conclude what climate change may lead to if not treated properly. The unprecedented change in climate has already affected the environment in the most severe ways and will keep continuing which is quite known to everyone, if we individually don’t adapt to essential changes in our lifestyle then the situation will go further worse only and the future doesn’t look brighter for the upcoming generation because nature knows its ways to control and prevent detoriation of environment.

References:

1. Alessi, M., & Gaast, W. van der. (n.d.). Climate Policy Info Hub. Retrieved from https://climatepolicyinfohub.eu/history-un-climate-negotiations-part-1-1980s-2010
2. The Effects of Climate Change. (2019, September 30). Retrieved from https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/
3. Piccirilli Dorsey, Inc. (n.d.). Timeline of Major UN Climate Negotiations. Retrieved from https://www.eesi.org/policy/international
4. What is the Paris Agreement? (n.d.). Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/what-is-the-paris-agreement
5. Alkozay, M. (2020, April 2). Coronavirus Impact on Environment. Retrieved from https://www.khaama.com/coronavirus-impact-on-environment-8760986/

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