India-Turkmenistan Foreign Office Consultations

Virtual Foreign Consultations between the Indian Republic and Turkmenistan was held on the 13th of January, 2021. The Indian delegation was led by Shri Vikas Swarup, Secretary (West), while the delegation from Turkmenistan was led by H.E Mr. Vepa Hajiyev, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan.

The primary rationale behind the consultations was to undertake a systematic review of bilateral relations between the two countries. This included political, economic, commercial, defense, and consular cooperation. Both sides used the opportunity to exchange views on regional and international issues of mutual interests and agreed to enhance cooperation in the United Nations and the multilateral arena.

3rd Senior Officials Meeting of Arab-India Cooperation Forum

On the 12th of January 2021, the third India-Arab Cooperation Forum took place. The Forum meeting was co-chaired by Shri Sanjay Bhattacharyya, Secretary (CPV&OIA), and Ambassador Mohamed Abu Al-Kheir, Assistant Foreign Minister and Permanent Representative of Egypt to the League of Arab States with the participation of Senior Officials from the Arab States and India, as well as the General Secretariat of the League of Arab States.

The Representative hailed the strong foundation, great potential, and wide-ranging prospects for Arab-India cooperation. They also used the opportunity to recall the historic ties between the Arab world and India. Through the Forum, the leaders stressed the need for political solutions to regional issues and crisis in the Middle East, particularly the Palestinian issues, the crisis in Syria, Libya, and Yemen, and underscored the need for cooperation in combating terrorism and ensuring freedom of navigation and maritime security, according to the principles of international law.

The Arab side congratulated the Republic of India on its election as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for a two-year term (2021-2022), while looking forward to India’s continuing pivotal role at the international stage, particularly concerning regional issues of mutual concern. They agreed on the early scheduling of the joint activities of the Forum, including the 3rd Session of Arab-India Cultural Festival, the Symposium on Arab-India Cooperation in the field of Energy, the 1st Arab-India University Presidents Conference, the 2nd

Symposium on Arab-India Cooperation in the field of Media, and the 6th Session of Arab-India Partnership Conference.

India and France hold Strategic Dialogue

Shri Ajit Doval, National Security Advisor, led the Indian delegation during the India-France Strategic Dialogue. The French delegation was led by Mr. Emmanuel Bonne, Diplomatic Advisor to the French President.

The Strategic dialogue between the two countries included discussions on a variety of issues including counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, defense cooperation, and the Indo-Pacific region. Both sides reaffirmed the high priority they accord to the India-France strategic partnership and highlighted the convergence of views between the two countries.

Following his meeting with Shri Ajit Doval, the French advisor called upon the Prime Minister, Shiri Narendra Modi, the Defence Minister, and the External Affairs Minister. He also addressed the Vivekananda International Foundation on “France and India: Partners for a stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

India-Germany Leaders’ Video-Teleconference

The Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi held a video conference with his German counterpart, Federal Chancellor Dr. Angela Merkel. The Prime Minister started the exchange by appreciating, Dr. Merkel’s long-standing role in providing stable and strong leadership at the European and global stage, and thanked her for strengthening the India-Germany Strategic Partnership.

The two leaders discussed key issues of mutual importance including the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, bilateral ties, regional and global issues, particularly India-EU relations. The Prime Minister used the opportunity to brief his German counterpart on the developments in India with regard to vaccine development and assured her of India’s commitment to using its capacity for the betterment of all countries.

The Prime Minister welcomed Germany’s decision to join the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and expressed his desire to further strengthen cooperation with Germany under the platform of Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI). The two heads of state agreed to hold the sixth Intergovernmental Consultations at an early date in 2021, and to create an ambitious agenda for the same, given that this year marks the 70th anniversary of setting up bilateral relations between India and Germany.

Exchange of list of prisoners between India and Pakistan

Keeping with the provisions of the 2008 Agreement, The Indian Republic and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan exchanged lists of civilian prisoners and fishermen in their respective custody. The Indian government handed over a list of 263 Pakistani civilian prisoners and a list of 77 fishermen. The Pakistan government’s list included 49 Indian Civilians and a total of 270 fishermen, who according to the Islamic Republic are Indians or believed to be Indians.

Upon the exchange of lists, the Indian government asked to expedite the release and repatriation of 3 Indian civilian prisoners and 185 Indian fishermen, whose nationality has been confirmed and conveyed to Pakistan. Additionally, the Indian government has requested consular access to Indian fishermen and 22 civilians prisoners who are believed to be Indians. In keeping with the 2008 agreement, the Indian government requested access for Indian medical personnel to assess the mental conditions of the believed to be Indian prisoners.

At the exchange, the Indian government reaffirmed its priority towards all humanitarian matters, including those pertaining to prisoners and fishermen in both countries. In view of the COVID 19 pandemic, the Indian government requested the Pakistan government to ensure the safety, security, and welfare of all Indians and believed- to-be Indian civil prisoners and fishermen.

India Delivers Humanitarian Assistance & Disaster Relief Support to Fiji after Tropical Cyclone Yasa

The Fiji islands were hit by a category 5 Tropical Cyclone Yasa in December. The Cyclone caused massive damage to the islands. In light of this natural calamity, the Indian government decided to provide humanitarian assistance through material aid. The relied material provided by the Indian government included shelter and hygiene kits, the government additionally also agreed to provide immediate assistance to the cyclone-affected communities.

A massive undertaking of this nature was possible owing to the work carried out by the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and were airlifted to the Fiji Islands, with the help of Air India and the Fiji Islands, through Sydney, Australia. India stood by Fiji during times of crisis and devastation, as this was not the first time that India provided the country assistance. Back in 2016, India was the leading nation to undertake humanitarian work on the islands following Tropical Cyclone Winston in 2016. India’s actions speak of its commitment to provide Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief support to friendly Foreign Countries as a first responder. India’s leadership role in the Indo-Pacific is in line with the Indo-Pacific Oceans initiative announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2019.

Telephone Conversation between Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and Prime Minister of UK The Rt Hon Boris Johnson

The Indian Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi conducted a telephone conversation with the British Prime Minister, The Rt Hon Boris Johnson. Mr. Johnson appreciated the Indian government’s invitation to the Republic Day, but regretted his inability to attend, given the changed COVID 19 context in the UK.

The leaders reviewed ongoing cooperation between the two countries. Prime Minister Modi, congratulated Mr. Johnson and his government for achieving the

highest vaccination numbers in Europe. The two leaders agreed to cooperate in the near future to make the COVID 19 vaccines available for the world. Lastly, the heads of state reiterated their shared belief in the potential of the India-UK partnership in the post-Brexit, post-Covid context, and agreed to work towards a comprehensive roadmap for realizing this potential.

Conclusion

Keeping aside the boiling tensions in the United States, we have noted a trend in geopolitical actions, wherein states have adopted a more cooperative attitude. This is particularly true with India, as can be seen through the points that we have covered in the report. In the coming months, it would be interesting to see the nature of the relationship that the Indian government develops with the Biden- Harris administration, and this would affect its policies in the Indo-pacific and the Middle East.

Also Read: INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY REPORT — EDITION #8

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The Iranian regime has considered the United States to be a staunch adversary since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The killing of Fakhrizadeh was the last nail in the coffin. The Iranian leadership faces a perilous conundrum in a precarious environment.

With the recent election of Joe Biden as the forty-sixth president of the United States and Hassan Rouhani’s term drawing to an end in 2021, we must shed light on what the future holds for the adversaries. Recent months have recorded a tremendous increase in hostilities between the two countries. Within this highly complex geopolitical web, Iran though cornered has not lost all hope. There are two significant advantages that the regime enjoys in the region. There exists a general understanding in the Gulf that U.S allies, which includes Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, do not have the capacity to engage with Iran in a full out conflagration. The second advantage that Iran enjoys is its regional proxy networks.

The Iranian regime has aimed at executing a one state, two systems formula for conflict-ridden states. Through this strategy, Tehran does not wish to rebuild institutions in accordance with international convention, instead chooses an approach centred around a host of armed non-state actors, that help the regime establish networks and institutions that parallel national institutions. The presence of weak national institutions provides the regime with the opportunity to subjugate governing structures and political systems. With the election of Joe Biden to the Presidency of the United States, there is renewed optimism that real diplomacy and engagement will dictate relations between the US and Iran, as compared to wishful demands for Iran’s total capitulation.

The last four years under the Trump Administration has marked the most contentious period in US-Iran history since the 1980s. The fragile state of relations between the US and Iran is clear by the fact that the two countries have been on the brink of war twice. The first being in the aftermath of Iran shooting down a US drone in 2019 and the second being the start of 2020 when the US orchestrated the assassination of the Quads Force commander Qasem Soleimani. The situation under the Biden administration might be expected to take a veritable turn, as there could be a substantial reduction in tensions by easing sanctions on the Iranian economy, and a return to an approach involving multilateral diplomacy that initially led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015. But the question still remains, if the Biden White House can draw its European Allies-Britain, France, and Germany to rebuild a coalition, of a similar nature as seen during the Obama era.

However, there exist several hurdles in this entire process of renewed diplomacy that the Biden administration may or may not adopt towards the Iranian Regime. The first such obstacle that the United States faces is the lack of time. Iran is due to have its presidential elections in 2021, which would in all probability see Housan Rouhani step down. The Presidential election may act as a thorn for the United States government as there has been a substantial weakening of the pragmatic forces within the Iranian polity. According to Iranian-American scholar Mohamad Tabbar, Iranian politics has undergone a tectonic shift, which has resulted in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps assuming the leadership of this change. The Iranian military is also preparing for the upcoming presidential elections and a veteran of the IRGC is likely to take over the executive branch. These perceived changes within the Iranian political structure gives the Biden White House, approximately six months to deal with and straighten out US’s relations with Iran. The Biden Administration is predicted to be faced with surmounting pressure from its allies in the Middle-Eastern Region, this opposition to US engagement with Iran is a result of the growing concern that this would lead to a broader rapprochement between Iran and the US, which could diminish the importance of American allies to Washington D.C.

Another significant challenge faced by the Biden administration will be shoring up support for the JCPOA within the country itself. The JCPOA has always faced tough criticism in Congress, members of the two houses never warmed up to the idea of an agreement with the Iranian regime. The biggest point of contention for parties and other actors in American politics has been varying expectations. Many believe that Iran should not be permitted to have a nuclear civil program, while many are of the opinion that the country needs to change its behaviour in the regime before a revised deal can be entered. Some believed that the provisions of the original JCPOA focused solely on the short term, and felt that it was necessary to tie down Iran’s nuclear ambitions in the long run. Getting Congressional support for a revised JCPOA is not going to be a cakewalk. More importantly, entering into a revised agreement with Iran, Biden will have to ensure that both Iran and the United States will be able to uphold the provisions without any margin of error.

Lastly, American relations with Iran rely a great deal on the other parties that were originally a part of the JCPOA. This includes the “P=5+1”, that is Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany. Since the P-5 and Germany are all signatories to the JCPOA, the deal belongs to all of them. This essentially means that it is vital the United States can get each and every member on board with the revised provisions of a new agreement with Iran. However, this process of gaining support from European partners might be significantly more strenuous as compared to the last time, the countries agreed to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. This is mainly a result of a series of changes on the geopolitical stage. The U.K has now left the European Union, with the achievement of a trade deal. The Russians on the other hand have gotten more assertive. Whereas China seems to be at loggerheads with the Americans over its increasing presence in the Indo-Pacific.

Having assessed the current situation, it is evident that Iranians are relieved to have survived the last four years under Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure campaign”, and there exists a glimmer of hope that Biden’s election represents the opening of a new chapter. This, however, does not mean that Iran will be ready to compromise on America’s insistence. The regime will expect a revived JCPOA that recognizes the economic damage that has been caused over the past four years. There seems to be appearing a rift between the Iranian moderates and the hardliners. Amidst this confusion, it would be interesting to see how an agreement, if there is one, influences the Iranian Presidential elections. Moreover, in the event of a failure to achieve an agreement before the 2021 election, it would be difficult to ascertain the effect this might have on the two countries, and how the Biden White House would handle the Iranian Regime and what would be future of US-Iran relations.

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Consultations between Secretary (East) and Republic of Korea First Vice Foreign Minister

Consultations were held between Ms. Riva Ganguly Das, Secretary(East), MEA, and the First Vice Foreign Minister Mr. Choi Jong-Kun of the Republic of Korea. The consultation was centred around international issues of mutual interest including high-level bilateral exchanges, defense, security cooperation, and COVID-19 response. An important area covered during the meeting was air travel between the two countries. Vice Minister Choi highlighted the steps being undertaken by the government to relax travel restrictions and agreed to continue consultation on the air bubble between the two countries. The Vice Minister expressed appreciation of the leadership role played by the Indian Republic in tackling issues such as climate change and disaster management through initiatives such as the International Solar Alliance and Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure.

The United States confers ‘Legion of Merit’ award on Prime Minister Narendra Modi

The President of the United States of America, Donald Trump conferred the highest decoration, The Legion of Merit, Degree Chief Commander, to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Mr. Modi was bestowed with the following award in recognition of his exemplary contribution to the advancement of the India-United States strategic partnership and promoting global peace and prosperity. The award was received on behalf of Mr. Modi, by Taranjit Sigh Sandhu. The Legion of Merit was also awarded to the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the former Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe.

India-UK Consultations on UNSC Issues

On the 18th of December, India and the United Kingdom held consultations on United Nations Security Council Issues. The UK delegation was being led by Mr. James Kariuki, Multilateral Policy Department of the UK Commonwealth and Foreign Office, and representatives from their Missions in New York and New Delhi. On the other hand, the Indian delegation was being led by Mr. Parish Gupta, Js (UNP & Summits), Ministry of External Affairs, and included other officials from the Ministry of External Affairs, PMI New York, and Indian High Commission in London.

The Indian delegation used this opportunity to brief their UK counterparts on its priorities during its upcoming tenure, including reformed multilateralism and counter-terrorism. The Indian delegation further touched upon its plan during its upcoming Presidency of the UNSC, including Climate Change and Security and famine and hunger in conflict situations. Both the delegations agreed to cooperate and work closely doing their time at the Security Council over the next two years.

Visit of External Affairs Minister to Qatar (December 27-28, 2020)

The External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar will be conducting an official visit to the State of Qatar on 27-28 December. The External Affairs Minister is scheduled to meet the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Ministry, H.E Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani. India and Qatar have over the years maintained close bilateral relations, and strong economic, cultural, and people-to-people cooperation. Bi-lateral trade was the US $10.95 billion in 2019-2. Both sides remain committed to intensifying bilateral cooperation in various fields including energy and investment.

The following visit undertaken by Jaishankar will be his first visit to the country in the capacity of the Indian External Affairs Minister. During the visit, he will be conducting a series of talks with his Qatari counterparts on issues ranging from regional and international issues of mutual interest. The two sides also focused on their response to the ongoing COVID- 19 pandemic and look forward to negotiating an agreement regarding a travel air bubble between the two states.

Virtual Meeting between Minister of State for External Affairs and the Foreign Minister of Gabon

A meeting between the Indian Republic and Gabon was held virtually on the 23rd of December, 2020. India was represented by Shri V. Muraleedheran, Minister of State for External Affairs, while Gabon was resented by H.E. Mr. Pacome Moubelet Boubeya, The Foreign Minister. Both leaders undertook a detailed review of bilateral ties including the COVID 19 pandemic and possibilities of cooperation in the post-COVID scenario. India and Gabon have shared friendly and cordial relations. The Indian delegation used the opportunity to emphasize how the meeting between Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and H.E. the President of Gabon in March of 2018 during the ISA founding Conference and during the Foreign Minister’s visit in 2017 and 2018 and strengthened the strategic relationship between the two countries.

Moving on, the attention shifted to Gabon and the ministers focused on the huge potential that exists in the country such as manganese, timber, agriculture, and railways. Bilateral trade between the two countries has been progressing at a steady rate and reached a total of US $511 million in 2018-19. Both delegations also reviewed the utilization of ITEC slots and finalized the draft MOU for participating in the e-VBAB project. Lastly, the two leaders discussed future cooperation and assistance at an international level, while assuring each other of support at the United Nations and other international forums.

India-Australia-Japan-United States Senior Officials Consultations

A joint video conference was held between the Senior Officials from the Ministry of External Affairs of India, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Australia, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, and Department of State of the United State of America. The following meeting was a follow-up to meetings held between the above-mentioned countries in September and October. The main focus of the consultation was on practical cooperation in the areas of connectivity and infrastructure development and security issues that include counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, and disaster relief. The countries present highlighted their main aim, which was to promote peace, security, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.

In terms of the ongoing effort to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, the officials underscored the importance of enhancing the resilience of supply chains and highlighted the need to ensure safe, effective, and affordable access to COVID-19 vaccines. The officials emphasized the centrality of the ASEAN in the regional architecture of the Indo-Pacific, by reiterating their support for ASEAN- centrality and ASEAN-led mechanisms.

Conclusion

With the introduction of the different COVID-19 vaccines, the world finally breathes a sigh of relief. In India’s case, we see a concentrated effort to strengthen relations, strategic partnerships and supply chains. The coming months will be a testament of whether India as a country will fade into oblivion owing to the severe economic stress brought upon the country, or will it embody the tail of a Phoenix rising from the ashes.

Also Read: INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY REPORT — EDITION #7

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Let’s travel back to the past, what is actually Brexit is and why it’s catching the whole news at once. United Kingdom joining EEC (European economic community) in 1973 as a  predecessor to the European Union brings a lot of spilt. The Guardian wrote in an editorial on January 1, 1973 “ The journey into Europe will be bumpy and discordant.

A Quick Glimpse Into the Past Events Which Led to Brexit

During the WW1 and WW2, the European countries were also going through some conflicts in between them, slowly those conflicts turned out to be bloody wars. Simply, to rescue the neighbouring countries of Europe, EU comes into power with its founding members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. European Union was originally the European Economic Community (EEC) created by the treaty of Paris in 1957. The United Kingdom joined in 1973. The main purpose of the European Union was to form a single European political entity and maintain a peaceful balance between all member countries with four basic freedoms regarding the transportation of goods, trade between member countries, common currency and free movement of people. In simpler terms, the EU consists of a group of European countries that acts as a single economic unit in the world economy.  EU provides a peaceful balance to the countries and help to make a stronger economy of each country and offers opportunities to rely on each other. However, the EU also strictly maintains some rules and regulation on these member countries.

When it comes to the UK leaving EU, there’s a lot of news going on. To cover the huge topic in a go, the understanding of UK and EU is a long but bumpy journey and is much important. The United Kingdom joined the EU for the better economic and peaceful life of the citizen. After two years of UK joining EU brings a debate around into two parties, one section of the UK were not really happy with the UK’s relationship with the EU.  According to that section of society, the EU has been a toxic issue in British politics. They always fear that the EU may hamper the sovereignty of the UK and also can bring fundamental conflict. Britain’s future with the EU had no luck, that was strongly believed by a larger section of society, also many citizens and politician were not happy with the rules and regulation imposed by the EU. Although the other half who were not very happy with the freedom that comes other Britain’s exit of EU, the youth of Britain is torn between their idea of what Britain could be and the reality of what it is. So to make a decision and end the debate and protest between the two parties of The United Kingdom, a referendum took place in 2016. On 23 June 2016, British citizens were called to cast their vote on the subject of the UK’s membership in the European Union that had a remarkable turnout of 72 per cent of the total electoral voted YES to the Brexit.

Xmas with Brexit Trade Deal

For the British and European Parliaments to ratify a trade agreement in an orderly fashion before the Brexit transition period expires on New Year’s Eve. The UK insists that it should trade with the bloc with as few restraints as possible. The EU demands that Britain stick to EU rules to ensure fair competition.

After the long discussions, talks and conference call about 90 minutes between the prime minister Boris Johnson and the president Ursula von der Leyen, with the spirit of Christmas 2020, EU and UK comes to finalize their situation with ‘a lose-lose situation’ the deal is about signed in December 31st 2020.  The  EU’S chief negotiator Michel Barnier express regret saying there is no winner in Brexit. Ursula has said, “parting is always bitter and sweet, after successful negotiation journey throughout Brexit, the deal has been made in the Xmas eve, I feel satisfaction and relief.” A bittersweet moment has emerged in the air of the UK. Although the youth are not happy with the whole idea of Brexit but the deal has been made which is better then no deal, if the deal did not happen the situation in the UK will be worst. The deal prevented some worst situation for the United Kingdom. So after this long time with lots of news, protest and discussion, along with the deal made, the UK has become a completely unchartered territory. Britain is free from the EU, and the European Union has lost a member from its union.  A lot of compromise from both sides made possible the Brexit trade deal.

The deal that has made between the UK and EU stated that European boat will still drop nets in British water, giving up only 25% of their catch quotas as fishing becomes the most important part of the economy of both also the Brexit trade deal.  Due to the Brexit deal, the EU is going to reduce quota as EU vessels can get in and the UK can go back. No tariffs or quotas on the movement of goods tariff-free or free trade as there are non-tariff barriers lots of from filling. So there will be no tariffs and quotas but some bureaucratic barriers to trade. There’s quite more stuff including the UK going to stay in certain EU’s programs, free movements of person will be removed along with goods and services, also the Brexit deal does not provide financial equivalence to UK’s economy. After all this there will be a partnership council is going to take over.

After the Brexit deal the leaders of both UK and EU on the positive side of maintaining the strong relationship between the both UK and EU, also looking forward to more stability and certainty towards a new beginning with a new security and trade deal post Brexit, which runs to 2,000 pages. 

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India-Russia consultation on UNSC issues

A delegation from the Indian Republic, being led by Shri Vikas Swarup, from the Ministry of External Affairs, met with a delegation being led by Mr. Sergey Vasilyevich Vershinin, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. The consultations focused on India’s acceptance of the non-permanent seat of the United Nations Security Council. The Russian side appreciated India taking its place within the family of nations. Both sides focused on the agenda for the 2021-22 tenure. The Indian delegation along with emphasizing its commitment to deepen cooperation on counter-terrorism at multilateral platforms apprised the Russian delegation on its priorities. Lastly, the two countries decided to work closely together, given the common challenges faced and in keeping with their long-standing Special and Strategic Privileged Partnerships.

Unwarranted references to India in resolutions adopted by the Organisation of the Islamic Conference

On the 29th of November, the Ministry of External Affairs released a statement rejecting the references made to the Republic of India in the recent resolutions adopted by the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) at the 47th CFM session in Niamey, Republic of Niger. The ministry reinstated its belief that the Organisation for Islamic Conference has no locus standi in matters pertaining to domestic governance of the country, which also includes the highly volatile region of Jammu and Kashmir which the current government believes to be an integral and inalienable part of India. India expressed its contempt at the fact that the organization was being used by a country that itself has been under the spotlight numerous times in the past for religious tolerance, radicalism, and prosecution of minorities. The country finally delivered an ultimatum of sorts by suggesting that the Organisation for Islamic Conference refrain from making such unwarranted and factually incorrect references to India.

India- United Kingdom Dialogue

The Prime Minister of India, Shri Narendra Modi spoke to His Excellency Mr. Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on the 27th of November. The two leaders started their consultation by shedding light on the current situation in regards to COVID 19 in their specific countries and used the opportunity to promise cooperation between India and the UK in the area of vaccine development and manufacturing. The two leaders explored the possibility of further strengthening relations between the two countries, in areas related to trade and investment, scientific research, mobility of students and professionals, and defense and security. The two sides recalled their commitment to platforms like the International Solar Alliance and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure while agreeing that delegations from both countries should work towards creating a roadmap for the India-UK partnership.

India commitments at Afghanistan Conference 2020

The Afghanistan Conference, organized in Geneva, co-hosted by the United Nations, The government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, and the government of Finland, saw the participation of an Indian delegation, been led by S. Jaishankar. The External Affairs Minister announced at the conference that India had just concluded with Afghanistan an agreement for the construction of the Shatoot dam, which would provide safe drinking water to 2 million residents of Kabul city. India had earlier built the 202-km Phul-e-Khumri transmission line that provided

electricity to Kabul city. The Ministry of External Affairs recently also announced the launch of Phase-IV of the High Impact Community Development Projects in Afghanistan, which envisages more than 100 projects worth US$ 80 million that India would undertake in Afghanistan. In his statement, Jaishankar emphasized India’s long term commitment to the development of Afghanistan and the benefit of its people as a contiguous neighbour and strategic partner. The delegation also highlighted India’s efforts to provide alternate connectivity through Chabahar port and a dedicated Air Freight Corridor between India and Afghanistan. Lastly, Jaishankar voiced his concerns in regards to the increasing level of violence in Afghanistan and reiterated India’s call for an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire.

India-EU consultation on disarmament and non-proliferation

The European Union and India held the sixth round of consultations on disarmament and non-proliferation. The consultation saw the sides exchange vital information on areas of nuclear, chemical, biological disarmament and non-proliferation, outer space security issues, strategic stability. Environment and other developments of mutual interest. The main aim of the consultations was to enhance mutual understanding and appreciation between India and the EU on international security issues.

4th NSA Level Meeting on Trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation

The Indian National Security Advisor Shri Ajit Doval, visited Colombo to participate in the 4th NSA Level Meeting on Trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation. The meeting previously had been held in the Maldives in 2011, Sri Lanka in 2013, and India in 2014. The NSA level meetings have served as a platform for cooperation among Indian Ocean countries. Apart from the Defence Secretary of Sri Lanka and NSA Shri Ajit Doval from India, Defence Minister H.E. Mariya Didi will also participate in the meeting representing the Maldives. The meeting will provide an opportunity for discussion on issues pertaining to cooperation in maritime security in the Indian Ocean region. On the sidelines of the Trilateral Meeting, NSA is also expected to have other high-level bilateral engagements.

Bahrain, UAE, and Seychelles

External Affairs Minister, Dr. S.Jaishankar undertook a visit to Bahrain, UAE, and Seychelles from the 24th to the 29th of November, during which he met his counterparts and the leaders of the countries. Jaishankar’s visit to Bahrain is his first to the country since he took on the role as External Affairs Minister of India. Jaishakar used the opportunity to convey condolences on behalf of the Government of India and the people of India to the Bahrininin leadership on the demise of Prime Minister HH Prince Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa. The Minister will hold talks with the Bahrain leadership on bilateral issues as well as regional and international issues of mutual interest.

The External Affairs Minister visited the United Arab Emirates next, during which he met the Foreign Minister of UAE, HH Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan. During the interaction between the two leaders, they focused on taking forward the excellent cooperation between Indian and the United Arab Emirates under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The meeting reached a productive outcome as the two leaders were able to discuss ways in which Indian workers could resume their jobs in the UAE, as more than 3 million Indians live and work in the country. India and the UAE have maintained close contact during the pandemic. Prime Minister Modi has spoken to the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi HH Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during the pandemic. The two heads of state also co-chaired the India-UAEJoint Commission Meeting in September 2020.

Lastly, Jaishankar visited the Republic of Seychelles on the 27th and the 28th of November 2020. The Foreign Affairs Minister met with the newly elected President, H.E. MR. Wavel Ramkalawan to present greetings of Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, and discussed with him what the priorities for the Indian government are and focused on exploring new areas and avenues for strengthening India-Seychelles bilateral relations.

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15th East Asia Summit

The 15th round of the East Asia Summit was held on the 14th of November. The Indian Republic was represented by Dr. S. Jaishankar. The summit was chaired by the Prime Minister of Vietnam H.E Nguyen Xuan Phuc, who also serves as the chair of the ASEAN. The External Affairs Minister used the platform to reaffirm the importance of the East Asia Summit, while speaking about the need to adhere to international laws, respecting territorial integrity, and promoting a rule-based global order. His comments tie into India’s recent experience of a border skirmish with its Eastern neighbor, and at the same time, his comments shed light on the country’s plans. The importance that the Indo-Pacific holds for the Indian Subcontinent, was evident by Jaishankar’s remarks, where he referred to the region as an integrated and organic maritime space.

Jaishankar further expressed concerns about actions and decisions in the South China Sea that have led to an erosion of trust. While talking further about the South China Sea, he called for a joint initiative post the COVID 19 pandemic to tackle the challenges cutting across international boundaries such as terrorism, climate change, and the pandemic. Lastly, the discussion moved to the issue that the world has been continuously grappling with. Jaishankar in his remarks about the COVID 19 briefed the EAS leaders about India’s response to the pandemic and highlighted India’s efforts to support the international community. All nations present at the summit issued a joint call to keep all global supply chains open for an expeditious and sustainable economic recovery.

17th ASEAN Summit

India was represented at the ASEAN by Prime Minister, Mr. Modi. The ASEAN Summit was chaired by H.E. Nguyen Xuan Phuc, the Prime Minister of Vietnam. In his opening remarks, the Indian Prime Minister chose to shed light on the importance of ASEAN, by highlighting its centrality to India’s Act East Policy. The Prime Minister underscored the importance of strengthening convergence between India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative and the ASEAN Outlook on Indo- Pacific, to ensure a free, open, inclusive, and rules-based Indo-Pacific region.

The Indian delegation to further cooperation with ASEAN nations reiterated India’s broader support to the international community and extended an offer to contribute US$ 1 million to the ASEAN COVID 19 Response Fund. The Prime Minister further talked about the importance of greater physical and digital connectivity between ASEAN and India and repeated India’s offer of a US$ 1 billion Line of Credit to support ASEAN connectivity. Lastly, the heads of state and international leaders present at the Summit, while recognizing India’s contribution to the peace and stability in the region, decided to adopt the new ASEAN-India Plan of Action for 2021-2025. The member states present insisted on the significance of keeping up and advancing harmony, dependability, wellbeing, and security in the South China Sea and guaranteeing opportunity of route and overflight.

20th Summit of SCO Council of Heads of State

The 20th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was held on the 10th of November in a virtual format. India was represented by the Prime Minister, while the Summit was being chaired by the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin. The Summit was attended by an array of partners, that comprised the Secretary-General of the SCO Secretariat, Executive Director of the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure, and the President of the four Observer States of the SCO, which includes: Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran, and Mongolia.

This was the third meeting that the Indian Delegation attended, since becoming a fully participating member of the SCO back in 2017. The Prime Minister used the forum to intimate other members of India’s plan in the United Nations, as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Mr. Modi emphasized India’s plans to focus on the theme of ‘reformed multilateralism’ to bring about desirable changes in global governance.

Further, the Prime Minister made known the country’s firm belief in regional peace, security, and prosperity and its future ambitions of raising a voice against terrorism, smuggling of illegal weapons, drugs, and money laundering. In terms of strengthening the Republic’s relationship with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Member nations, the Indian Delegating reflected on India’s strong cultural and historical connection with the SCO region and reiterated India’s firm commitment towards strengthening connectivity in the region with initiatives like International North-South Transport Corridor, Chabahar Port, and Ashgabat Agreement.

In his concluding remarks, the Indian Prime Minster expressed his willingness to host the next regular meetings of the SCO Council of Heads of Government on the 30th of November. Lastly, the Indian Prime Minister congratulated President Emomali Rahmon of the Republic of Tajikistan for taking up the chairmanship of the SCO next year and assured full cooperation from India’s end.

India-Mexico Meeting

The Indian External Affairs Minister met with H.E. Ambassador Ernesto Araujo, the External Relations Minister for Brazil. The Indian Delegation started the talks by conveying their condolences to the Brazilian families who lost loved ones in the terrorist attacks in France. The Ministers discussed opportunities for cooperation in the post-COVID world and emphasized the importance of Brazil-India cooperation in terms of economic recovery efforts, healthcare, cybersecurity, and supply chain resilience. The Ministers also discussed a wide range of regional and multilateral issues especially in the context of India’s upcoming membership of the UNSC, the role of G4, and India’s priorities in the UNSC.

India-Italy Virtual Summit

A virtual bi-lateral summit, between the Prime Minister, Shri. Narendra Modi and the Italian Prime Minister Prof. Giuseppe Conte was held on the 6th of November, 2020. Recalling the Italian Prime Minister’s visit to India two years ago, Mr. Modi appreciated the rapid strengthening of India- Italy relations. The summit acted as a common platform for the two leaders to review their bi-lateral frameworks and discuss a wide range of issues including political, scientific, and defence technology. Lastly, on the multilateral level, both sides agree to coordinate closely at platforms such as G-20, to face global issues such as the COVID 19 and the economic downturn caused by the same.

Removal of Sudan from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism and normalization of relations with Israel

On the 9th of November, the External Affairs Ministry released a statement, declaring that Sudan has been removed from the list of countries that are sponsors of terrorism. The Ministry acknowledged that the Indian-Sudanese relations are historic and special and forged based on shared values. The Indian Government also congratulated the Transitional Government and the people of Sudan on the signing of the Juba Peace Agreement, and hope that these positive developments will usher in democratic changes and contribute to enhancing Sudan’s development, peace, security, and stability.

Conclusion

India in the last month has taken significant steps towards establishing an environment of mutual respect and peace, while trying to set initiative a dialogue in the region which can act as a potential check on increasing Chinese aggression. With there being a constant mention of the shared problem of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the recent news coming out regarding the Pfizer and the Moderna vaccine, achieving 90% and 94.5% effectiveness, the country would have to focus on both production and distribution of the same if it is approved. Lastly, the next few months or even the coming years will be marked by a constant struggle aimed at economic recovery. It will be interesting to see how India’s strategic diplomatic ties help the country get back on its feet.

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Though there has been a lack of political enthusiasm, the common threat of irking China and structural issues that have acted as obstacles for blossoming Indo-Taiwanese relations, Taiwan has engaged silently diplomatically in India. PM Narendra Modi and President Tsai Ing-wen, have engaged in furthering the bilateral relationship.

Contextualising the Indo-Taiwanese Relationship

The Indo-Taiwanese relations were almost non-existent for more than four decades after the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was recognised by India. Marking the beginning of their ‘unofficial’ ties,  in 1992, the Taiwan External Trade Development Council (TAITRA) set up a liaison office in Mumbai and, in 1995, India opened its representative office in Taipei and named it the India-Taipei Association (ITA) for economic engagement. In a month, Taiwan opened its office in New Delhi and called it the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre (TECC). Now, the TECC offices are operational in Chennai, Kolkata, and Mumbai. Although they were not formal diplomatic missions, they do function as de-facto representatives of their respective governments and carry out activities like issuing of visas, carrying out trade and economic relations and facilitating people-to-people contacts. This was the beginning of bettering bilateral relations between India and Taiwan in the sphere of trade and commerce, development and research, science and technology, education, people-to-people contacts, and other related fields and thus, in the post Cold-War period, this marked an important watershed moment in the history of Indo-Taiwanese relationship. This was a pointer towards India’s ‘Look East Policy’, enunciated by the then Prime Minister, Narasimha Rao and was a marker of Taiwan’s pragmatic diplomacy.

Taiwan’s ‘pragmatic diplomacy’ is also known as ‘flexible diplomacy’ and ‘substantive diplomacy’ and focuses on enhancing its international profile and facilitating its external engagements by using ‘unofficial’ and ‘non-diplomatic’ channels in the broader economic and cultural arenas, without attempting conventional state-to-state diplomacy, so as not to invite ire from the PRC. New Delhi, in this context, has emerged as a significant factor for Taiwan’s substantive diplomatic practices. Given their shared concerns vis-à-vis China and the commonality of their democratic values, especially during the current strategic uncertainty, this seems like the perfect ripe moment to enhance relations between the two.

In 2014, Taiwan’s representative to India had attended PM Modi’s swearing-in ceremony, and in 2016, India carefully well thought-out sending a representative to President Tsai’s inauguration but eventually decided against it. Most countries, including India, have found it challenging to balance the political and strategic implications of fostering closer relations with Taiwan due to the uncertainty of China’s reaction, leading to a complex diplomatic maze. In this context, Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy (NSP) under Tsai Ing-wen seeks to expand links with countries across South and Southeast Asia with a great emphasis on building economic, investment and people-to-people ties, as well as a greater focus on India especially while New Delhi “acts east”. Given the swaying relationship between India and Mainland China, it is practical for India to shift towards greater stress on soft balancing by cultivating a fruitful relationship with Taiwan. The Indian government’s ‘Act East Policy’ provides for greater engagement between India and Southeast Asia, making Taiwan important for India’s future economic growth.

In terms of increasing economic and commercial engagement, the TECC and the ITA formalized an MoU in 2017 on the “Promotion of Industry Collaboration”, preceded by twenty-one MoUs signed earlier that year by Taiwan’s Chinese National Federation of Industries and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry. In 2018, the first India-Taiwan Trade Forum was convened in Taipei with the Taipei World Trade Center inaugurating its New Delhi office in conjunction with the debut of the Taiwan Expo (a business exposition) in South Asia over the summer of 2018 with New Delhi serving as its inaugural venue. Despite all these developments on the economic front, there have been domestic and structural problems in formalising the relationship, especially due to New Delhi’s position on acknowledging the ‘One-China policy’. New Delhi has overall remained ambiguous on the matter and the investment and trade have remained relatively modest but there have been efforts to increase investment by Taiwanese firms in India and notable joint initiatives and manufacturing clusters have been proposed under the ‘Make in India’ campaign.

Upgrading the Relationship: QUAD Angle

The need of the hour for India is focusing on a practical and long term pragmatic approach for fomenting better ties with Taiwan. We have to strategically balance the ‘One-China policy’ of Mainland China (based on one country, two systems model) and cultivating a beneficial and normal relationship with Taipei. New Delhi should not use Taiwan as a pressure point or Achilles Heel against the PRC as this hampers India’s goals and Taiwan’s development. The focal point for bettering the Indo-Taiwanese relationship should be based on enhancing people-to-people, cultural and business exchanges rather than focusing on the government-to-government gimmicks. Education, tourism and technological innovations can leverage the relationship. India should actively engage with Taiwanese NGOs to create an impact over the coming years and focus on roping in an international networking capacity. Small and medium-sized enterprises too can act as significant job creation initiatives and serve as great vehicles to exchange knowledge and human capital. Taiwan can also help in meeting India’s agricultural modernisation needs and its recent support during the pandemic in healthcare facilities is a pointer in the direction of up-gradation of the relationship in a pragmatic understanding. This soft power diplomacy through developmental assistance, cultural, healthcare, academic and tourist exchanges will surely benefit and give a thrust to long term robust India-Taiwan relations.

There have been under-utilised opportunities in the bilateral relationship. New Delhi needs to engage in proper policy approach to benefit most from a healthy relationship with the core area of the Chinese economy. The reshaping of the relationship with Taiwan has not only been a prerogative of New Delhi, the other three members of the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue): USA, Australia and Japan have also upgraded their relations with Taipei.

Taiwan is significant for the QUAD countries as it is the core area that can be used to deter Chinese aggression due to its strategic location and partnership with the QUAD countries would act as a diplomatic weapon for both parties against the belligerent Dragon’s ever-rising provocations. Moreover, it is an important source of information on China, as evidenced in the case of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, the QUAD needs to protect Taiwan from diplomatic isolation and help it develop its military and defensive capabilities while also providing it opportunities for investment in a safe and incentive-based environment in the QUAD so that they can safely relocate their economic and investment ventures from Mainland China without incurring losses.

Conclusion

India needs to act in a strategic manner and shed its inhibitions and self-imposed restraint on engaging with Taiwan. The bilateral relationship is extremely rewarding if managed appropriately by both parties. They have to act more decisively and New Delhi has to formally acknowledge Taiwan as a development partner and the role it can play in steering the direction of Indo-Taiwanese relationship. It is an opportune moment, also thus for the QUAD to recognise Taiwan as a reliable partner and counter China’s growing footprint in South Asia that it wants to establish its hegemony over, through its bellicose and pugnacious ways.

References:

Karackattu, J. T. (2019). The Case for a Pragmatic India-Taiwan Partnership. Carnegie India.

Nagao, S. (2020, August 2). The Quad must strengthen and support Taiwan. Sunday Guardian Live.

Singh, D. T. (2019). The New Southbound Policy and India-Taiwan Relations. Vivekananda International Foundation.

Tien-Sze, F. (2014). Taiwan’s Relations with India: Issues and Trends. China Report.

Times Now Digital. (2020, October 10). Quad and beyond: Is it time for India to take a tougher stance on Tibet and Taiwan?

Featured Image Source: Google Images | Image by: Reuters

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While it has been regarded as a continuum of economic and developmental prospects for Pakistan, it has also, significantly, given birth to a series of domestic economic and political issues in Pakistan. It is an instrument whereby China seeks to establish its hegemony through the combined use of hard and soft power, relying greatly on its “debt-trap diplomacy”. The debt outcome of the CPEC project is already about $80 billion, with 90% of it to be paid for by Islamabad in the form of the national debt. Even though Islamabad is still presenting a rosy picture of CPEC and its developmental prospects for Pakistan, it is well known that it will not be able to pay China back and will eventually lose its sovereignty and become another linchpin in the Chinese debt trap strategy. Experts and media reports have already been referring to it as a “Trillion Dollar Blunder”.

This mega billion dollar project has turned out to be more of a Non-Performing Asset (NPA) for China than a boon, especially when the world has been badly hit by the pandemic. The CPEC has proven to be more of a bogus project that hardly offers any profits with lagging industrialisation efforts and only a quarter of the decided projects completed over the last five years. With China facing an economic slowdown and depleting dollar reserves, it is itself in desperate need of the USD and is trying to woo foreign investors to its financial markets. With the trade war with the US and the Chinese export market facing an all-time low due to the diplomatic distancing and the Western countries’ ire over China’s role in the spread of Coronavirus pandemic, a big blow has been landed on to the Belt and Road Initiative, especially the CPEC project that is greatly faltering and has turned out to be China’s biggest NPA. With the global supply chains being badly hit, the OBOR Initiative is no longer a marker of China’s long-term vision and magnanimity; rather it is regarded as an investment blunder of colossal scale. The CPEC, which sowed dreams of a developed Pakistan with the most profitable and developed infrastructure has and the region into a hub of trade and commerce has instead turned it into a centre of gargantuan infrastructure with negative profitability and zero utility. The Chinese banks and financial institutions have been shirking away from funding the CPEC, as it is evidently nil on profit, given Pakistan’s inability to repay the Chinese loans. 

There is a huge gap in the announced projects of 2015 and completed projects of 2020, with only 32 of the 122 announced projects seeing the light of the day. The CPEC project is lagging behind as it has been facing many shortcomings like lack of funds, trade asymmetries, domestic issues, bad loans for China which does not want to fund the CPEC projects and opposition from Baloch rebels and local who will be directly impacted by this rollout. Large energy projects have been shelved as this NPA faces major bottlenecks due to unsustainable debt levels. China is reluctant to provide assistance as the venture does not provide any returns and is a fund drain. Moreover, Pakistan’s long standing challenges have been aggravated by the CPEC; it entails economic, environmental, social and political costs the state which faces an exacerbated energy deficit, creating a greater dependence for fossil fuels that are harming the environment as well. The CPEC was roped in on its premise of turning Pakistan into a higher-value manufacturing hub, however, what is seen at present is that the huge majority of special economic zones (SEZs) are empty, and the information and communication technology (ICT) projects that were to provide the backbone have been halted and limited. 

Conclusion

Thus, the CPEC is a gamble for China and Pakistan, contrary to their narrative of completing the CPEC at all means. It has already increased Pakistan’s current account deficit and China does not want to invest more where there is no way of recouping their investment and the Return of Investment (RoI) rate shows a gloomy picture. For the Dragon, given the calamitous economic situation Pakistan is in, even the chances of recovery of principal amounts spent by the Chinese financial institutions is a far-fetched dream and thus, the “iron-brotherhood” may be in a jeopardy. The Chinese funds kept Pakistan afloat and prevented it from sinking into the economic doom, however with the funds getting halted and dried up, CPEC faces cost escalations being beneficial for none. Rather than an asset, it has become a liability and has been added to the list of China’s NPA.

References: 

Chinese banks’ reluctance towards CPEC hint towards their funding gap. (2020, August 27). Wion .

Afzal, M. (2020). “At all costs”: How Pakistan and China control the narrative on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Brookings.

Business Standard . (2018, April 17). Pak’s current account deficit rises due to CPEC: ADB report. Business Standard.

Hillman, J. E., McCalpin, M., & Brock, K. (2020). The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor at Five. CSIS.

The EurAsian Times. (2020, July 4). CPEC Project A ‘Trillion-Dollar Blunder’, Pakistan Calls It ‘Outstanding Initiative’. The EurAsian Times.

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Historical Context

Observations have shown that with the onset of the Age of Discovery in Europe, increased interest of Russia and China in Central Asia somewhat led to the breaking away of India’s connections with the region. Even after Independence, India’s foreign policy majorly focused on its immediate neighbours, or solidarity-based relations with the African countries, or even robust economic ties with Russia — but, the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent and the distancing of the region geographically did play a role in the deterioration of the relations with the region from India.

Further, in the post-Cold War era, after the Soviet Union split Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in the 1990s, India took upon the task of developing its relations with the resource-rich region while also undertaking its own domestic economic reforms of bringing about liberalisation, privatisation, and globalisation. Former Indian Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao visited four out of the five republics – Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in 1993, followed by Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan in 1995. In addition to the collective values that India shared with the countries, collective development and economic growth, as well as formulating approached to combating common threats such as terrorism, religious extremism, and crime that these nations shared with India. A few experts also believe that the stage which was set by these conversations was even reflected in India’s Look North policy of recent times. 

Despite the historical links with the Central Asian Economies and India moving quickly to establish diplomatic ties with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan after their emergence as independent countries almost three decades ago, trade has not grown beyond $2 billion, with them. In recent years, foreign-affairs analysts have begun observing what they call the “New Great Game” in Central Asia — Russia, the US, European Union (EU), China, Turkey, Iran and India are all trying to assert their power and hegemony in the region. Not only does the region provide for a large market, but it also has prospects for developing hydropower, fossil fuel resources, and other lucrative prospects. According to experts, India, for its part, has so far chosen to take the ‘constructivist’ approach. This entails a strategy of, interests are not solely based on economic or strategic benefits but attempt to involve an intersectional and even culture-oriented involvement.

Current Developments

India’s continued interest in Central Asia can be attributed to the geopolitical relevance of the region due to three factors — Chinese presence and influx in the region through its expansionist infrastructure projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a continued historical context of Russia’s dominance in the region, and the overall regional security dynamic. Keeping these in mind, India had unveiled its Connect Central Asia Policy in Bishkek in 2012 in order to draw attention to the expansion of the region’s economic interests in congruence with India’s plans of integrating its external neighbourhood.

The lack of connectivity of India with the region of Central Asia has been a long withstanding issue in this context. For instance, the long-delayed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, backed by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), was first proposed in the mid-1990s and all four actors officially signed an intergovernmental agreement in 2010. But, since then, the project has been stalled due to the status of Afghanistan and mistrust between India and Pakistan.

To combat this connectivity gap, India has undertaken positive action in the past as well quite recently. India, Iran and Russia signed the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) agreement which aimed to offer connectivity between India and Central Asia through Iran. As is noted by this resource, while the INSTC is routed via Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, India has also explored the possibility of connecting with Central Asia via Iran’s Chabahar port and thereafter overland corridors passing through Afghanistan. The importance bestowed by India to the Chabahar port, despite the uncertainties which the US-Iran tensions bring to the conversation, can be accorded by the budgetary allocation to the project, which is amounting to INR 1 Billion in 2020-21 announcement.

Way Forward

Since China has been able to leverage its geography, finances and population to ensure that its projects can contribute toward making its dream of a new and improved Silk Road a reality, India is also committed to expanding the scope of its economic relations with the region. India has immense potential in developing small and medium scale industries in the region which is presently being provided through India’s program of ITEC (Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation). The ITEC programme covers information technology, management, journalism, diplomacy, entrepreneurship, and banking. New Delhi also signed the Strategic Partnership Agreements (SPA) with three of the five nations of the Central Asian Economies — Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — in order to stimulate defence cooperation and deepen trade relations.

As a report in a Russian newspaper observed, “Indian presence in the region should balance the growing Chinese influence and prevent it from becoming the region of Beijing’s undivided dominance.” This idea can be brought to effect by India by leveraging its membership at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

India and the Central Asian Economies can prioritize energy, pharmaceuticals, automotive, agro-processing, education, urban infrastructure and transport, civil aviation, IT and tourism sectors to strengthen economic links. The Central Asian economies and India have had a long history of association which can be efficiently revived to mutual benefit by the means of strategic and economic cooperation and connectivity, both notions that can be leveraged by the stakeholders in a post-pandemic world.

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CULTURAL, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL LINKS

As vast the relationship between India and Maldives is, there are a few special characteristics which define the relationship in a summarized sense. First, talking about the cultural relationship, mention has to be made of the immense use of soft power by India to advance its relationship with the Maldives. The cultural development between the two countries has come from various forms of capacity building. India has assured a good relation with Maldivian students and provided them with a high level of skills training and capacity building. Scholarships and easy access for them is a key positive in the relation between the two countries. The Maldives has based its economy highly on tourism and India has not shied away from help. The Indian Cultural Centre was established in July 2011 in Male and it has brought the countries much closer than before. The Indian diaspora in the Maldives forms a crucial part of the population in the Maldives with a population of around 26,000. Around 30% of the doctors and 25% of teachers are of Indian origin.

This sustenance of Indians in the Maldives has increased the spread of their respective cultures. Even though cultural relations have been always on the rise, the economic and political relations are also to be considered. Politically talking, India has always stepped up whenever there is uncertainty within the Maldives. The 1988 Operation Cactus was the biggest example of Indian aid in times of a crisis. Back in 88, 80 armed militias from the PLO of Tamil Eelam had landed in the island country and had been working on taking over the government. India sent troops and was able to eliminate the threat. This brought the two countries closer than ever. After that, in 2014 during the water crisis in Male, India sent its ships to help produce freshwater. The most recent political crisis was back in 2015 when the first democratically elected president of Maldives, Mohammed Nasheed was arrested on terror charges. India along with the US voiced their displeasure on the arrest. The new President Abdulla Yameen had strained the relations with India, claims the current foreign affairs minister of Maldives, Abdulla Shahid. After Yameen’s defeat in 2018, the political relations were again restored. Maldives FM says that he is confident of the positive relations and this restoration was visible during the COVID crisis.

India, at the very start of the crisis, provided 6.2 tonnes of medical-aid to the Maldives, followed by constant medical and pharmaceutical help.  The economic relations are even more in-depth and have been helpful for both countries. The 1981 Comprehensive Trade agreement has helped the Maldives prosper in the years. Annually, bilateral programmes have been agreed upon where development of infrastructure, health, communication and labour has prospered in the Maldives. Coming back to the 1981 agreement, the export of essential commodities, which was initially modest, have now reached new highs. In 2014, trade stood at 677 Cr Indian Rupees and in 2019 India’s export to the Maldives stood at 212 Million dollars, which clearly shows how trade has developed in the past few decades.

COMPLICATIONS WITH THE ENTRY OF CHINA

In the friendly relationship with India, China entered as a wild card, with the exceptional claims of helping the Maldives grow, economically and infrastructure wise. Once, Yameen came into power in 2014, he made sure that there was a lack of cooperation with India and an inclination towards China. The successive government has accepted that Yameen tried to play both India and China but failed spectacularly. This connotation is partly true. Back in 2014, as a part of its Belt and Road Initiative, China offered loans to the Maldives to help them develop infrastructure. The lack of foresight has come back to haunt the Maldives who had created a huge debt. Currently, the government says that they still owe $600M and with an economy highly dependent on tourism, in the time of a pandemic, find it very difficult to pay the debt off. Reaching this position was difficult as well. It was Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi who had put his ‘Neighbour First’ policy into good use by providing the Maldives $1.4B in financial assistance. The situation of Maldives can be seen in parallel to that of Sri Lanka. India’s southern neighbour also took a loan from China to increase its infrastructural capabilities but when it was unable to pay back the loan, China got a 99-year lease over a  crucial Lankan port.

One could say that India has saved the Maldives from a similar situation but the future is known to none. The current Maldives Foreign Minister has said that they will be reconsidering their current agreements with China.  Nonetheless, he has also at times stated that Beijing has been very generous in social development projects, mainly in the housing sector. In terms of rethinking, Maldives wants to bring China to the negotiation table to find a way out and pave the way for future partnerships. Keeping in mind the previous agreements playing highly in Chinese favour, such future partnerships do not sit well with the Indian government who has expressed concerns. Nonetheless, the Maldives foreign minister has always claimed that India is the closest friend of Maldives. At this point, it can be inferred that China is a short term partner of Maldives, whereas India has always been considered a long term ally. India cannot throw caution in the wind and start diplomatic cold war with the Maldives to force its way out of Chinese relations. For a country like the Maldives, having strategic partners in the geographical proximity is the way forward. They also claimed that the Maldives will be looking to develop relations not only with India and China but also the USA and UAE. India will need to keep Maldives’ natural growth in mind in its future endeavours with the Maldives.

CONCLUSION

India’s relationship with the Maldives has been a natural one for decades and except for a few hiccups in between, it is widely claimed that India is the most crucial partner of Maldives. India needs to realise this and assure long term stability with them. India also needs to keep in mind that the Maldives will be growing in terms of diplomatic power by trying to increase its bilateral partnerships. At this point, India needs to continue doing what it has been for the past few decades and sustaining a long term partnership won’t be difficult. The Indian government needs to keep in mind what Maldives FM thinks the relationship is based on. He says, “It is not a relationship based on size or economy, but one based on ideas and principles.”

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