Going into 2020, every international relation scholar had an idea of the tripartite relationship between India, China and the USA and what one could expect from the governments of the said countries. The trade war that had been going on between the USA and China had put India in a difficult position, where it needed to maintain positive relations with the two countries. That said, the unpredictability of the Trump administration and China’s omnipresent goal of attaining power over the South Asia region had made it a very thin line for the Indian diplomats to walk on. This is how the relations between the three countries, with India at the centre, were before 2020. But, this year has changed how the relations between these countries are understood and how any future policy will be undertaken. Why is this so? Firstly, we have the coronavirus, which originated from China and has created an air of distrust for the Chinese all over the world and the US has taken advantage of the situation. Moving on, we have the conflict in Galvan valley which came after months of stand-off. This has made the Indo-Sino relation much more complicated. Lastly, India’s relationship with the USA has been equally complicated. We had the Trump visit back in February and then during the pandemic, we had Trump making comments where he nearly threatened India over its resistance in exporting Hydroxychloroquine. This is one instance of a complicated relationship.
Relations Post COVID Pandemic
The ongoing pandemic has created a time of uncertainty, but one certain thing is that once the pandemic ends, there will be an air of distrust in the global market towards China, and their economic, as well as political prowess, will take a hit. This is seen as an advantage for India and a favourable condition for the USA in a cold conflict which has been going on for the better part of the last two years. This has been fueled further by Donald Trump who has continuously referred to COVID as the ‘Chinese Virus’ in his official briefings. Trump has been asking his allies within Europe to take a similar stance of blaming China for the health and economic distress. India has played the ball with caution and not followed suit by joining America’s call for blaming the situation fully on to China. Rather, India had been in close contact with health officials from both China and the USA during the early stages of the pandemic. This aligned with India’s long-existing value of international cooperation. Nonetheless, some things need to be kept in mind when India will be forming their policy about the two countries after the pandemic ends, or possibly slows down. First of all, one needs to expect that the relationship between China and the USA will remain sour. This comes from a simple deduction that China has ambitions that go far beyond India, Russia or South Asia for that matter. China is trying to take up the position of a superpower in the international community as is understood by the international community. Further, the USA has already noticed this ambition and has been trying to keep it in check. Whether it is in the form of a trade war or simple political jargon, the USA is trying to retaliate. India, in this scenario, needs to keep its patience. There is no doubt that India has economic interests in both countries, but it will not be hard to argue that India tends to side with America, when it comes to making a choice between the two. An important aspect of post-COVID relations is the economy. For now, we see that China has already started recovering from the pandemic in economic terms as China has started recovering the losses it incurred during the early months of the pandemic. The same cannot be said about India or even the USA. Even though it is clear that the two countries are still going through the pandemic and have not reached their respective peaks, the current signs show that it won’t be soon that they start to recover economically. As Modi has always claimed that the purpose of foreign policy will be to achieve economic prowess, it can be argued that India needs to make use of its foreign policy to economically recover from COVID. A point for worrying is that India will not be able to compete with China in terms of economic recovery on its own because of the simple lack of skill labour capacity. China’s labour socialism has developed labour skill at a level which India, at this point cannot compare with, statistically speaking. Global economists agree that national labour capacity will be the key for recovery post COVID. Even though Modi’s use of the term ‘Atma-Nirbhar’ may be good for showing a certain national self-dependence, on the ground, India cannot compare with China. Similarly, the USA is in a stronger position in terms of labour capital than India, but it is too early to judge that against China. On the other hand, various international politics scholars also believe that India’s bargaining power will increase in a more than likely limited cold war between USA and China, post-COVID. This stems from the simple fact that India has a huge consumer market in which both countries would want to invest in. Therefore, India needs to make use of its market. Lastly, in a post COVID world, India needs to focus on the global flow of labour and capital, with its established strategic partners in Europe, Middle East and South-East Asia. The USA might not be as equally dependent but they too will need to foreign cooperation. A few days back PM Modi invited American investment in India and that is a positive move. Since India has been trying to move away from China, in terms of economic dependence at least, Modi makes the right move by inviting increased cooperation and investment from America.
Defence Alliances Post the Galwan Clash
The Galwan clash, which led to the martyrdom of 20 Indian soldiers, came after a months-long standoff and even though one could not have predicted death at such a level, no one can deny that the Indian policymakers always had an idea about China’s rising geopolitical ambitions. That said, when it comes to the relationship in terms of defence, there is only one direction in which India can go in. China’s continuous military and diplomatic support to Pakistan can only mean that India needs to strengthen ties with the USA when it comes to issues like this. The USA also sees India as a strategic partner which can help reduce Chinese influence. Reports came in that the US had provided intel to the Indian army after the Galwan clash. This may be a good sign for the time being. India also has to keep in mind that a regime change might be coming in America, and be prepared if Biden comes in. This is not to say that the US will withdraw its support, but they surely will be rethinking their priorities. Nonetheless, maintaining a strategic partnership with the US is fundamental for India, in case of any future clash or standoff. The defence alliance is one thing, but there is another aspect behind all of this. The future of India’s economic relationship with China cannot be left aloof. The Indian government has banned 59 Chinese apps and will be looking to take more radical economic actions against the Chinese in the future. But the question remains, can India sustain itself in a situation where India bans Chinese products? China is India’s second-largest trading partner and at least 70% of India’s drug intermediary needs are fulfilled by China. Finding an alternative to such high trade interdependence will be difficult for both. But China is ahead in a case of any such predicament as well, thanks to its growing improved relations in the Central and South Asia region, owing to its Silk Road initiatives. India’s smartphone industry is also to some extent dependent on China. Even though China is not very high in terms of foreign investment in India, denying such investment will only play in a poor way for India.
The ‘Boycott China’ movement of Indians may reflect that Indians might want to move towards self-dependence but such transformation is to be considered as a long term solution. The crux remains that India needs to maintain its economic relation with China as long as it practically can. If things boil beyond control, India needs to think of an economic plan while at the same time it thinks about its border measures.
Conclusion
India, China and the USA will become a much more interesting international dynamic in the coming years with China’s growing ambition. Nonetheless, India’s priority has to be to economically recover from COVID. Improving economic ties with the West is the clear cut answer to that along with an increased focus on entrepreneurial self-dependence. Moving on, a closer defensive relation with the US also seems to be the way ahead, without severing economic ties with China, for as long as possible. India needs to be more vigilant on the border if it doesn’t want to be walked over by China again. Such strategic partnerships will help India to grow economically, as well as maintain its existing influence over South Asia and possibly expand upon it, in the years to come.
