After months of instability in Italian politics, Italy’s government finally collapsed on 13th January 2021. Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi withdrew his small party Italia Viva’s support. This move has put the country in a difficult political situation as the government is now short of a parliamentary majority. However, the real problem is that this kind of political instability in Italian politics is rising when Italy is battling COVID-19. According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, there have been more than 2.3 million Covid-19 cases and 79,819 deaths recorded. [1]
Nevertheless, such a political crisis is not new to the country. Italy has always been at the centre of political turmoil for decades. It is quite evident with the fact that the country has seen about 60 governments since WWII. Conte and Renzi’s drift has been known to the public for a long time, and hesitation escalating was very much anticipated. So far, the drift was kept at bay by this centre-left coalition due to the coronavirus emergency. However, the pandemic situation has also now escalated, and it seems that it outlasted the political goodwill. [2]
Why Did the Problem in Italian Politics Start?
The reason for this drift started due to the approach of Conte and Renzi concerning financial matters. [3] Back in 2020, the GDP of Italy slumped by about 10% due to COVID-19. [4] Adding on to that, was a stimulus package that was given by the European Union (EU) worth €750 billion that was allocated to several EU nations. In July 2020, Italy was allowed to get the lion share of the EU stimulus package, amounting to over €200 billion (about $243 billion) in a grant and low-interest loans. [5] Because of such loans, Italy is now the second most debt-ridden economy after Greece. [6]
For weeks, Matteo Renzi had criticized the plan laid out by Conte to use the EU funds to use these handout purposes and less on serving the health needs. Even when the plan was improved on Tuesday night as per the request, Matteo Renzi was still not satisfied. Finally, the usage of €200 billion worth of that package was approved during the night of about 12th and 13th January 2021 by the lawmakers. However, the lawmakers of the Italia Viva abstained from voting on it. Also, two members of resigned including Elena Bonetti, the former minister for family and equal opportunities. Both Conte and Renzi have a different opinion on how this recovery money given by the European Union should be used.
It increased the difference between Renzi and Conte, as the issue became a matter of political vote bank and both the centrists are competing for the same voters. [7]
Matteo Renzi’s move has been met with a mixed response, ranging from anger to confusion to chaos. One opinion poll even suggested about 70% of the Italians feel that this move by Renzi is not due to the difference of opinion, but rather for his political gain. Some experts also state that this move by Renzi may be due to him being side-lined by the coalition in recent times. [8] So, Renzi was doing nothing but using this opportunity to improvise on his political gains.
However, on Wednesday, Renzi argued in a news conference that dealing with the pandemic also meant “solving problems, not concealing them,” He has taken issue with Conte’s strategy for rebuilding Italy’s tattered economy.
Nonetheless, it cannot be denied that Matteo Renzi is a very well-known political figure in Italian politics and holds an even more crucial role in the current government headed by Giuseppe Conte.
Why Renzi Is Crucial to the Italian Government?
Italia Viva was formed by Matteo Renzi in September 2019, after he quit the centre-left Democratic Party. After the populist right-wing League Party’s departure, Renzi and his party played a significant role in forming the coalition government by Conte. The coalition government comprises the centre-left Democratic Party, Five Star Movement (MS5) and the left-leaning parliamentary group called Free and Equal.
According to recent polls, even though Renzi has only 3% public support, his party Italia Viva has 30 lawmakers in the lower house and 18 lawmakers in the upper house, thereby making them a junior coalition partner.
Way Ahead
Renzi had elected as the Prime Minister in 2014. So, he understands how the situation prevails while on that post and how politics needs to be done to rule the state. Not only that, but he also has been known for mediating conflicts among parties having varied political inclination- ensuring that the far-right parties are out of power by making sure that a coalition is created between populist and centre-left parties.
With the decision of Renzi, there are only a few alternative options that can be viable for moving ahead in this situation. First, that Conte and Renzi come to a compromise by keeping the current coalition government. In other words, without escalating the situation, Conte needs to convince Renzi to support the government. It is still possible as Renzi is still. However, if this does not happen, the country would be on the brink of losing a government in the middle of a pandemic. Alternatively, the Conte government can go through a no-confidence motion. If he loses, the situation of Conte’s government will be like Schrödinger’s cat. In other words, Conte would only be left as the caretaker of the government, and he would also not have much power over Renzi. However, a coalition is still possible. After all, with a lack of public support, Renzi would not want to put his 48 lawmaker seats at risk. Nonetheless, if this not, the situation may move ahead in a different path.
Second, if the coalition government does not move ahead, then considering the pandemic, a government of national unity will be sought to be created by President Sergio Mattarella.
Third, the country could go ahead with the national vote. It would mean that the country may end up going into an election right in the middle of the pandemic. In case of an election, either Conte would win the third term as the Prime Minister, or the far-right wing parties would form the government. The far-right in Italian politics comprises of the League Party and the Brothers of Italy. They have been gaining support for the past few years and hold about 40% of the electoral vote. So, in case an election happens and the far-right wins, then there Italy will have the most anti-European government in Western Europe. [9]
In this way, one can state that Italy is currently in such a political situation that it will not be suitable for the nation if escalated. [10] Hence, sorting out the differences is the best possible way out of this situation.
References:
[1] Italy – COVID-19 Overview – Johns Hopkins. coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/italy
[2] Harlan, Chico. “Italy’s Government Falls into Chaos, Further Complicating the Covid Response.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 13 Jan. 2021, www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/italy-government-renzi-conte/2021/01/13/dd65f6bc-55c6-11eb-acc5-92d2819a1ccb_story.html.
[3] Roberts, Hannah. “Italy’s Coalition Fights for Control of EU Recovery Cash.” POLITICO, POLITICO, 5 Jan. 2021, www.politico.eu/article/matteo-renzi-giuseppe-conte-coalition-government-recovery-fund-cash-coronavirus/.
[4] Amaro, Silvia, and Sam Meredith. “Italy’s Government in Crisis after Former PM Pulls Support for Ruling Coalition.” CNBC, CNBC, 13 Jan. 2021, www.cnbc.com/2021/01/13/renzi-italys-government-in-crisis-after-former-pm-pulls-support.html.
[5] Speak, Clare. “How Italy Plans to Spend €209 Billion of EU Money.” Thelocal.it, 17 Sept. 2020, www.thelocal.it/20200917/more-growth-lower-tax-for-families-italy-sets-out-plan-for-spending-eu-recovery-fund.
[6] Samuelson, Robert. “Opinion | Why Italy’s Debt Matters for Everybody.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 24 May 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-italys-debt-matters-for-everybody/2020/05/24/12b2f310-9baf-11ea-ac72-3841fcc9b35f_story.html.
[7] Roberts, Hannah. “Italy’s Coalition Fights for Control of EU Recovery Cash.” POLITICO, POLITICO, 5 Jan. 2021, www.politico.eu/article/matteo-renzi-giuseppe-conte-coalition-government-recovery-fund-cash-coronavirus/.
[8] Bozza, Claudio. “Sondaggio: Crisi Di Governo Incomprensibile per Un Italiano Su 2. E per Il 73% Renzi Persegue i Suoi Interessi.” Corriere Della Sera, Corriere Della Sera, 13 Jan. 2021, www.corriere.it/politica/21_gennaio_13/crisi-governo-italiano-due-non-capisce-motivi-il-73percento-renzi-persegue-suoi-interessi-59b0ac42-5515-11eb-89b9-d85a626b049f.shtml.
[9] Zampano, Giada. “Giorgia Meloni Is Rising Star on Italy’s Far-Right Stage.” AP NEWS, Associated Press, 18 Oct. 2019, apnews.com/article/fa37b62daab246f2a9ccb0887284aaee.
[10] “Italy’s Government in Crisis after Junior Coalition Partner Quits.” Euronews, 13 Jan. 2021, www.euronews.com/2021/01/13/italy-s-government-close-to-collapse-amid-row-over-covid-recovery-cash.
