Historically, India shares economic ties with the Arabian peninsula, especially with the gulf regions alongside its eastern shores. The maritime trade route between the Indus valley civilization and civilization of Dilmun, located on the island of Bahrain and adjacent to the shore of Saudi Arabia was the first such route to be recorded in the history of the world. Dilmun had acquired a trade monopoly between the civilization of Mesopotamia and the Indian subcontinent by 2000 BCE. Historical facts and records demonstrate that traders from Dilmun stayed in south Asia and vice versa for extended periods. Those goods which were largely missing in the middle east like spices and cotton were acquired by merchants from Dilmun.
Later, the trade between Arabian peninsula and India was dominated by Arab traders from Oman and yamen. At the same time, Indian ocean trade between East Africa, middle east and India were dominated by Oman. Trade between Arabia and India became the backbone of Arabian peninsula by the end of the first millennium CE.
Interestingly, Arabia had less to export to India and most of the goods flowed from India to Arabia. Expect, the pearl industry which was an important export until the discovery of oil in the Gulf region. In places like Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Dubai, pearl diving was a way of life.
Relations between India and the Gulf region became stronger during the British raj when in addition to an economic component a military component was acquired by them. British had begun to dominate the subcontinent, by the mid 19th century, the control and influence exercised by them on Arab territory came as a result of their need to protect the sea lanes. The British conquered Aden in 1839, which was administered as a province of British India. A protectorate was established by the British in Abu Dhabi in the year 1820 and later on over Dubai, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and other states that would later form the United Arab States (UAE). The British affairs of Arab were managed by British officials in India and were garrisoned on British command by Indian soldiers.
The relationship between India and the Gulf region began to change and reverse with the independence of India and the discovery of oil in the Gulf region. The balance of trade began to shift as a result of exporting oil. Today, 80% of oil is exported in India from the region and independent India failed to te the gulf economically as British India did. Despite the economic turn faced by India, it continued to maintain important relations with the region relative to others. By the 21st century, India’s export to the gulf region were more than the European Union. I.e. In the financial year 2012-13, India’s export to GCC stood at $51 billion according to financial times. About 15% of exports in India go to the Gulf. India was also the largest trading partner of Dubai until china overtook it in 2013. The strong relation between the two is maintained even today.
INDIAN IMMIGRANTS AND THE GULF
India is the top recipient of remittances alongside being the largest country of international migrants. Since the ‘oil boom’ from the 1970s, Indian migrants to the gulf became a valuable source of income and backbone of economies for high-migration states through remittance transfer. During this period, the migrants have largely contributed to the economic development of the gulf region.
However, In recent years’ condemnation of treatment provided to domestic expatriate workers and blue-collar in the region has cast the migration in a less favourable light, demanding greater attention from the government of India to worker welfare and diaspora issues. Regardless of this, complaints of abuse, hardship and exploitation persist.
The return of workers has increased and the outflow of migrants has slackened due to fluctuation in the oil market, economical slowdown and changing gulf policies. The coronavirus pandemic too clouds the future of gulf-India migration relations, which would be a challenge for the government of India as well as the workers and their families dependent on them due to healthcare and livelihood challenges that they would have to face.
The usual return to jobs after the travel ban ends is far from assured. Return of labours and New jobs depend upon the economic capacity of the gulf. Indian migrants who would return to gulf would be required to present their medical certificates as per the mandate of Kuwait authorities. However, once the pandemic ends, Gulf states could impel sweeping wide-ranging departures. A more likely scenario is an adjustment of reliance on foreign workers followed by a cut in government contracting and levying of high employer and visa fees. Either would give a blow to the economy of India as well as to the families and communities of people who have long served the gulf states as a lifeline.
KUWAIT EXPAT QUOTA BILL
Among the large number of migrant workers that India sends to the world, a total of 9 million Indian migrants are employed in the Gulf region. USD 82 billion in form of remittance were received by India during 2019 as per world bank report. Due to the pandemic, many workers are left in a vulnerable condition as the countries of destination are failing to provide new economic opportunities because of which the migrant workers are returning to India. Kuwait’s total population stands at 4.3 million, out of which 3 million are migrant labours among which over a million belong to India. As a result of the rising pressure over the economies, Kuwait became the first among the GCC countries to introduce a bill aiming to deport migrant workers from the country. During the first week of July, Kuwait decides to roll out a bill to reduce the number of foreigners in the country as proposed by the PM.
According to the new ex-pat quota bill approved by the Kuwait authorities on reducing the number of foreign labourers in the Gulf region, eight lakh Indians can be forced to leave their jobs and return to India. The legal and legislative committee of the national assembly has determined that the bill is constitutional. The bill allows a maximum of 15% Indians in the region, while the Indian community consists of 1.45 million of its population making it the largest ex-pat community in Gulf. Due to the pandemic and a slump in oil prices, government and the lawmakers call for a reduction in the number of ex-pat community in the country. Kuwait remains the largest source of remittances for India, the country received nearly $4.8 billion from Kuwait as remittances in the year 2018. Most of the COVID positive cases in Kuwait come from foreigners as the disease spreads between the migrants living in overcrowded housing.
IMPACTS OF THE NEW BILL
Some important facts on both sides- India and Kuwait need to be considered at this point. Now that the Kuwait government is planning on sending back foreign workforce, the authorities would need to perform a rain-check and see if the local population have the requisite skills and knowledge to perform the jobs. These semi-skilled work involves low pay and therefore attracts migrant workforce, the willingness of the local community to take up the jobs would impact the market of Kuwait.
While the Indian government has launched SWADES (Skilled Workers Arrival Database for Employment Support) to record data relating to skills of migrant workers returning to India, which can be used by recruiters to appoint and use workers in India. However, the current market is already suffering from the pandemic and a considerable number of people have lost their jobs, in such situation it won’t be easy to reintegrate these returnee workers in the domestic market. Many of the labourers are returning without getting paid what was due to them which would be another roadblock in the reintegration efforts. These workers would join the people who have returned through Vande Bharat mission and are looking for jobs in the country. Return migrants should be included in the employment and social development programs offered by central and state governments irrespective of where they come from. A number of these people might consider re-immigrating, for this, the Indian government must check the markets and deport migrants to that area where demand is high.
CONCLUSION
At this point, India needs to strengthen its ties concerning migrant labours with Kuwait and other GCC countries, where most of the Indian workforce resides. While maintaining bilateral ties is important, a roadmap needs to be prepared for the development of international migration policy for labours which would take into consideration both returnees and migrant workers from the country. In a regional meeting under the aegis of MEA (ministry of external affairs) organised by India together with Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, the strengthening of bilateral relations during this times to protect migrants workers was deemed to be a priority, which was supported by the International Labour Organisation (ILO).
