There is no denying the fact that the United Kingdom had a significant impact on the European Union’s Foreign Policy. Brexit, in terms of the Middle East, the UK has shared the same concerns as the leadership in Brussels. This has included securing the flow of oil, ensuring non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and combating radical groups. However, cooperation with continental Europe has not always been the UK’s top priority when it came to Foreign Policy. As seen most notably in 2003 when the British government, under Labour Prime Minister joined the US-led coalition in invading Iraq, abasing strong criticism from Germany and France. To analyze Great Britain’s withdrawal from the confederacy, we look at three specific effects.

EU’s Loss of Power — Brexit & Middle East

We have already established the centrality of the British in the European Union’s economic development, foreign policies, and trade activities. Given the UK’s heightened power with the confederation, Brexit has not only left a gaping wound within the EU but has also shown the fragility of the union. Cracks within the European Union are so evident that political experts and heads of state, have entertained the possibility that the confederation may eventually break down completely. Since the Brexit referendum, there have been various right-wing discussions across European countries. The most glaring example of this is Poland. There has been a set of disagreements between the Polish government and the European Commission over contentious judiciary reforms.

The seriousness of the disagreements between the two entities is reflected through the words of the European Council President Donald Tusk who said, “The Matter is dramatically serious. The risk is deadly serious. Polexit is possible.” A similar situation of contention has developed between Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Hungarian right-wing government, which has been at odds with the EU, ever since the union voted overwhelmingly to label Orban’s government as a “systemic threat to the rule of law”. Given the current state of the Union, a weaker and inward-looking Europe is predicted to be less involved in the Middle East. The nature of Europe’s dealings with actors in the Middle East will significantly be altered as it strikes to bargain with authoritarian figures in maintaining border security and stability while paying lip service to its values and ideals. In terms of seeing the actual effects of Europe’s or the UK’s dealings with the states of the Middle East, post-Brexit, it will be interesting to see if the EU still enjoys its power to promote its values of the rule of law and democracy, given the significant erosion in soft power after the Brexit.

UK’s Interventionist Policy

The second aspect that we focus on is the prediction that the United Kingdom may adopt an interventionist policy following Brexit — Even though, in regards to the Middle East, historically the UK has followed an independent foreign policy. Breaking away from the European Union, grants the country freedom from its regional commitments to mainland Europe and could lead to a more pragmatic and self-interested approach to its dealing with Middle Eastern states.

With the UK adopting a more selective role in the region, it is expected that the country will pursue short term goals over long term goals. This might include its interests in fighting terrorism and promoting UK business, rather than focusing on establishing a peace process in states like Syria. This however does not mean that the British will overlook the peace process completely. Being an important stakeholder in the Middle East Peace Process is vital for the country to maintain its relevance and influence in the region. If anything, a post-Brexit future may be the most ideal time for Britain to assert itself in the Middle East region, especially as the EU could be further weakened by Britain’s future departure and its internal problems. In terms of the business expansion in the Middle East, the Global Risk insight has predicted that the country will extensively focus on the Gulf region, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Regional and International Actors

Given the probability of the EU adopting a more inward-looking policy and the UK following a more self-interested pattern in its interactions with Middle Eastern Actors, there is a possibility that this could result in a greater role for global powers such as China, to develop strategic partnerships and political alliances with the countries in the region. There could also be an increased role of regional actors in combating security dilemmas and economic issues through the involvement of the Gulf Cooperation Council. In terms of the Council, the GRI has predicted that blocks such as the GCC will step-in to essentially develop security and economic frameworks to address regional issues. However, this seems a bit too idealistic given the current political issues the Middle East is plagued with, and the splintering of various member states into their network groups, such as the Saudi-Emirati Coordination Council.

Conclusion

From our discussion on the effects of Brexit, it is clear that the process has not only redefined relations between the Middle East, the United Kingdom and the European Union and reshuffled the intentional economy, but also has the potential of significantly altering Europe’s and the UK’s relations individually with other international actors. There exists tremendous insecurity and anxiety in markets around the world, as experts stand by to see the effects of these changes. A great amount of diffidence can be felt in the case of both the EU and the UK, as both remain unsure of how Joe Biden, the President-elect of the United States of America might react to the current situation. Had the Brexit deal gone through under Trump we could have expected him to adopt a more pro-British stance, but with Biden, the ball can be in anyone’s court. Only time will truly tell.

Featured Image: AFP/Getty Images

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Let’s travel back to the past, what is actually Brexit is and why it’s catching the whole news at once. United Kingdom joining EEC (European economic community) in 1973 as a  predecessor to the European Union brings a lot of spilt. The Guardian wrote in an editorial on January 1, 1973 “ The journey into Europe will be bumpy and discordant.

A Quick Glimpse Into the Past Events Which Led to Brexit

During the WW1 and WW2, the European countries were also going through some conflicts in between them, slowly those conflicts turned out to be bloody wars. Simply, to rescue the neighbouring countries of Europe, EU comes into power with its founding members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. European Union was originally the European Economic Community (EEC) created by the treaty of Paris in 1957. The United Kingdom joined in 1973. The main purpose of the European Union was to form a single European political entity and maintain a peaceful balance between all member countries with four basic freedoms regarding the transportation of goods, trade between member countries, common currency and free movement of people. In simpler terms, the EU consists of a group of European countries that acts as a single economic unit in the world economy.  EU provides a peaceful balance to the countries and help to make a stronger economy of each country and offers opportunities to rely on each other. However, the EU also strictly maintains some rules and regulation on these member countries.

When it comes to the UK leaving EU, there’s a lot of news going on. To cover the huge topic in a go, the understanding of UK and EU is a long but bumpy journey and is much important. The United Kingdom joined the EU for the better economic and peaceful life of the citizen. After two years of UK joining EU brings a debate around into two parties, one section of the UK were not really happy with the UK’s relationship with the EU.  According to that section of society, the EU has been a toxic issue in British politics. They always fear that the EU may hamper the sovereignty of the UK and also can bring fundamental conflict. Britain’s future with the EU had no luck, that was strongly believed by a larger section of society, also many citizens and politician were not happy with the rules and regulation imposed by the EU. Although the other half who were not very happy with the freedom that comes other Britain’s exit of EU, the youth of Britain is torn between their idea of what Britain could be and the reality of what it is. So to make a decision and end the debate and protest between the two parties of The United Kingdom, a referendum took place in 2016. On 23 June 2016, British citizens were called to cast their vote on the subject of the UK’s membership in the European Union that had a remarkable turnout of 72 per cent of the total electoral voted YES to the Brexit.

Xmas with Brexit Trade Deal

For the British and European Parliaments to ratify a trade agreement in an orderly fashion before the Brexit transition period expires on New Year’s Eve. The UK insists that it should trade with the bloc with as few restraints as possible. The EU demands that Britain stick to EU rules to ensure fair competition.

After the long discussions, talks and conference call about 90 minutes between the prime minister Boris Johnson and the president Ursula von der Leyen, with the spirit of Christmas 2020, EU and UK comes to finalize their situation with ‘a lose-lose situation’ the deal is about signed in December 31st 2020.  The  EU’S chief negotiator Michel Barnier express regret saying there is no winner in Brexit. Ursula has said, “parting is always bitter and sweet, after successful negotiation journey throughout Brexit, the deal has been made in the Xmas eve, I feel satisfaction and relief.” A bittersweet moment has emerged in the air of the UK. Although the youth are not happy with the whole idea of Brexit but the deal has been made which is better then no deal, if the deal did not happen the situation in the UK will be worst. The deal prevented some worst situation for the United Kingdom. So after this long time with lots of news, protest and discussion, along with the deal made, the UK has become a completely unchartered territory. Britain is free from the EU, and the European Union has lost a member from its union.  A lot of compromise from both sides made possible the Brexit trade deal.

The deal that has made between the UK and EU stated that European boat will still drop nets in British water, giving up only 25% of their catch quotas as fishing becomes the most important part of the economy of both also the Brexit trade deal.  Due to the Brexit deal, the EU is going to reduce quota as EU vessels can get in and the UK can go back. No tariffs or quotas on the movement of goods tariff-free or free trade as there are non-tariff barriers lots of from filling. So there will be no tariffs and quotas but some bureaucratic barriers to trade. There’s quite more stuff including the UK going to stay in certain EU’s programs, free movements of person will be removed along with goods and services, also the Brexit deal does not provide financial equivalence to UK’s economy. After all this there will be a partnership council is going to take over.

After the Brexit deal the leaders of both UK and EU on the positive side of maintaining the strong relationship between the both UK and EU, also looking forward to more stability and certainty towards a new beginning with a new security and trade deal post Brexit, which runs to 2,000 pages. 

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