Relations Post COVID Pandemic

The ongoing pandemic has created a time of uncertainty, but one certain thing is that once the pandemic ends, there will be an air of distrust in the global market towards China, and their economic, as well as political prowess, will take a hit. This is seen as an advantage for India and a favourable condition for the USA in a cold conflict which has been going on for the better part of the last two years. This has been fueled further by Donald Trump who has continuously referred to COVID as the ‘Chinese Virus’ in his official briefings.  Trump has been asking his allies within Europe to take a similar stance of blaming China for the health and economic distress. India has played the ball with caution and not followed suit by joining America’s call for blaming the situation fully on to China. Rather, India had been in close contact with health officials from both China and the USA during the early stages of the pandemic. This aligned with India’s long-existing value of international cooperation.  Nonetheless, some things need to be kept in mind when India will be forming their policy about the two countries after the pandemic ends, or possibly slows down. First of all, one needs to expect that the relationship between China and the USA will remain sour. This comes from a simple deduction that China has ambitions that go far beyond India, Russia or South Asia for that matter. China is trying to take up the position of a superpower in the international community as is understood by the international community. Further, the USA has already noticed this ambition and has been trying to keep it in check. Whether it is in the form of a trade war or simple political jargon, the USA is trying to retaliate. India, in this scenario, needs to keep its patience. There is no doubt that India has economic interests in both countries, but it will not be hard to argue that India tends to side with America, when it comes to making a choice between the two. An important aspect of post-COVID relations is the economy. For now, we see that China has already started recovering from the pandemic in economic terms as China has started recovering the losses it incurred during the early months of the pandemic. The same cannot be said about India or even the USA. Even though it is clear that the two countries are still going through the pandemic and have not reached their respective peaks, the current signs show that it won’t be soon that they start to recover economically. As Modi has always claimed that the purpose of foreign policy will be to achieve economic prowess, it can be argued that India needs to make use of its foreign policy to economically recover from COVID. A point for worrying is that India will not be able to compete with China in terms of economic recovery on its own because of the simple lack of skill labour capacity. China’s labour socialism has developed labour skill at a level which India, at this point cannot compare with, statistically speaking. Global economists agree that national labour capacity will be the key for recovery post COVID. Even though Modi’s use of the term ‘Atma-Nirbhar’ may be good for showing a certain national self-dependence, on the ground, India cannot compare with China. Similarly, the USA is in a stronger position in terms of labour capital than India, but it is too early to judge that against China. On the other hand, various international politics scholars also believe that India’s bargaining power will increase in a more than likely limited cold war between USA and China, post-COVID. This stems from the simple fact that India has a huge consumer market in which both countries would want to invest in. Therefore, India needs to make use of its market. Lastly, in a post COVID world, India needs to focus on the global flow of labour and capital, with its established strategic partners in Europe, Middle East and South-East Asia. The USA might not be as equally dependent but they too will need to foreign cooperation. A few days back PM Modi invited American investment in India and that is a positive move. Since India has been trying to move away from China, in terms of economic dependence at least, Modi makes the right move by inviting increased cooperation and investment from America.

Defence Alliances Post the Galwan Clash

The ‘Boycott China’ movement of Indians may reflect that Indians might want to move towards self-dependence but such transformation is to be considered as a long term solution. The crux remains that India needs to maintain its economic relation with China as long as it practically can. If things boil beyond control, India needs to think of an economic plan while at the same time it thinks about its border measures.

Conclusion

India, China and the USA will become a much more interesting international dynamic in the coming years with China’s growing ambition. Nonetheless, India’s priority has to be to economically recover from COVID. Improving economic ties with the West is the clear cut answer to that along with an increased focus on entrepreneurial self-dependence. Moving on, a closer defensive relation with the US also seems to be the way ahead, without severing economic ties with China, for as long as possible. India needs to be more vigilant on the border if it doesn’t want to be walked over by China again. Such strategic partnerships will help India to grow economically, as well as maintain its existing influence over South Asia and possibly expand upon it, in the years to come.

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The Process of the Presidential Election

Before talking about the two candidates, it is important to understand how the election process works since it is very different from that of India. The election for the President of the USA is done separately from the legislative (The Senate and House of Representatives). The two main parties, Republicans and Democrats have small primaries and caucuses which are meetings of sorts in various states all over the country to decide the candidate from their party. When the two candidates are chosen, debates and campaigning is done, followed by voting. An electoral college is formed by the states of America and elections are held. Different states have different strengths for their college, keeping in mind the population of the particular state. The total number of seats is 538 and to become the President, a candidate needs to cross 270 seats. Since the division of seats is done on population, states like California and New York carry much more weight. The process from this point is more confusing. If a candidate wins the majority of the seats in a particular state, instead of the number of seats he has won goes into his account, but rather it is the total number of seats in the state that go into his account and it is said that he has ‘won the state’. For example, California has the most number of seats with 55 and hypothetically, if Biden wins 38 seats in the state, he gets the majority of the state. Not only that, in the total count he will get 55 seats to his name. Overall, whichever candidate reaches 270 seats in the college becomes the President. Now, let us look at the candidates.

 As of now, we have two candidates. Donald Trump from the Republican Party and Joe Biden from the Democratic Party as the leading candidates. The campaign has not gone into full swing as of now and the presidential debates are yet to be held. All this said; let’s look at the two candidates.

 The Incumbent – DONALD TRUMP

Starting with the incumbent Donald Trump; he has had little to no opposition when it comes to being endorsed by the Republican Party. The main reason behind this is the simple fact that he is the incumbent and has maintained a certain level of support in his key demographics. He has higher approval ratings than any other politician from the Grand Old Party (GOP) or the Republicans. Nonetheless, not every member has shown unequivocal support. Former presidential candidate from the Republican Party, Mitt Romney had voted to convict Trump during the infamous impeachment trials of early 2020. The economy has played to his advantage, at least before the pandemic and Trump does not shy away from taking the credit. Nonetheless, there are a few things that have played a role in the fall of his approval ratings. At the forefront, we have the mismanagement of the coronavirus outbreak in America. Currently, 4.1 million people have contracted the disease and considering that Trump has previously ridiculed the ability of the virus to spread and not impose restrictions has reflected the lack of leadership. Second, we have an issue that has not been at the forefront of Presidential elections for the last 3-4 races. The issue of race and institutionalized racism has taken America by a storm and Trump has not managed to control it. He has not openly talked about facing the issue of race but has called the protestors thugs and terrorists. Even though bold stances like this worked in 2016, they do not seem to be effective this time around when the issue is as sensitive as a race. With these things in mind, let’s look at the Democratic nominee and former Vice President under the Obama administration, Joe Biden.

The Nominee – JOE BIDEN

Joe Biden was relatively late to coming forward with his candidature if we compare it to the likes of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, who had been talking about their campaign for long before the start of the democrat party’s caucuses.  This lack of early preparation was seen during the Iowa caucus and the primary in New Hampshire in which Biden didn’t perform very well. But eventually, things started to fall in place, with the regular debate over Sanders electability and Warren’s early withdrawal, Biden was eventually selected to be the Democratic presidential nominee. All this proposes the question that is Biden the best that Democrats have to offer, to go against Trump. Now even though a lot of voters think that his policies may not be as radical or as glaring as those of Sanders and Warren, he has been gaining the popular vote time and again. The political scientists within the party say that people just consider Biden to be more electable. Even though there are some question marks over his leadership ability and his ability to talk to people in a sense which creates a different political wave (something Trump did pretty well in 2016). Nonetheless, we have seen during the Obama presidency what Biden is capable of in terms of team management and keeping his administration smooth. Further, Biden is gaining more edge in political leadership after he had openly criticised the current President over his handling of the pandemic and the protests. All this is something that the political scientists have talked about the two leaders and there are differences in opinion. But one thing that is not as subjective is the polling data that various news agencies have collected.

Status of Polling Data and Opinion Polls

The latest polling data, as of 9th June by RealClearPolitics shows a lead in favour of Biden by 6 points as he stands on 46%, as opposed to Trump’s 40% approval rate. Similarly, NPR (+8), NY Times (+14), Fox News (+12) and Quinnipiac(+15) all suggest Biden having a huge lead over the president. It is important to mention that the past few months have shown Trump’s worst approval ratings during his tenure, going down to 38%. He, without a doubt, will improve his ratings and consequently improve his numbers in the poll. So, it is not advisable to consider Biden to be the new President, just yet. Also, a data as general as this one is not usually considered to be a clear indicator of who will be winning, as was seen back in 2016 when Hilary had an advantage of 4-5% by the same data  To better understand the polling data we need to divide the data into two different categories. The first is the situation in the swing states and secondly, the situation of the key demographics and the handling of various issues. An important note is that a lot of states are considered to be predominantly Red (Republican) and Blue (Democrats) states. This division is done, keeping in mind the dominance of the said party in the state in the previous elections as well as the general polling data. The states which do not fall under this category are the swing states. In the upcoming election, seven states have been identified by most of the political scientists as the swing states. These are Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Different networks consider different states to be swing states but on average these 7 states have been the most common. It is important to note that Trump won all of these states back in 2016. It is also worth mentioning that Biden has led the state of Texas which has been predominantly a red state, and so Trump is expected to win the state back even though a lot of journalists have started to consider Texas to be a swing state. Data between 17th and 22nd June collected by NY Times/Siena poll shows a huge advantage for Biden.  Comparing the current numbers to that of 2016, we see that Trump has completely lost Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which he won by margins of less than 1 point, and is now trailing by 11, 11 and 10 respectively. Moving on North Carolina and Arizona have shown a smaller advantage as Biden leads by 9 and 7 points respectively. Florida is an interesting state which is considered vital for Trump’s re-election and he won it narrowly in 2016 by 1.6 but is currently trailing by 6 points. All this said, one has to keep in mind two things. First that most of these polls showed an advantage for Hilary as well but she lost these battleground states but second, her advantage was not as big as that of Biden. One would not be surprised if Trump manages to cut down the advantage in these swing states and also manage to win one or two conservative states, but will this be enough for him to regain presidency?

Going by the same source, looking at the key demographics, Biden leads by 74 points with black voters, 39 points with Hispanic voters, 34 points with young voters (18-29), 22 points and 18 points with independent voters. This shows a key advantage that will play in the favour of Biden. Back in 2016, Trump won the election with a huge advantage, running up to 70 points, with independent voters, men, older voters and white people. This time the gap has cut so much that Biden leads in 3 of Trump’s key demographics i.e. independent, men and older voters. This seems like a much more negative trend than one would have predicted. Moving on, key issues like COVID and racial issues have highly favoured Biden. People have started to doubt Trump’s leadership in these two aspects and considering that these are the two main issues of 2020 for America, Biden does seem to be favoured. On the other hand, Trump is preferred when it comes to immigration, economy and job creation. Trump has made it a point to claim the growth of the US economy before the pandemic to his benefit and that seems to be in his favour.

Conclusion

Even though we are just 3-4 months before the elections happen, all of these are predictions and pre-election polls. A lot of things like the presidential debates, widespread campaigning and the actual Election Day turnout, all can change the way things stand today. This was seen back in 2016 to work in favour of Trump but that was because the difference between the two candidates was too small. That may not be the case this time but nothing can be said with certainty. Kanye West has pulled out of the race and it will be fair to say that he did not have much ground before as well. As of now, even though the polls indicate one thing, anything can happen. There is without a doubt a bit of uncertainty and just like 2016, the door is still open for both candidates to win the White House. 

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In India, four months have passed since the initial nationwide lockdown implemented by the Government of India on 25th March 2020 and now preparation for Unlock 2.0 is beginning, with relaxed restrictions barring a few services such as of Cinema halls, theatres, bars, educational institutes, swimming pools, and other similar services.

Amidst the new policies announced and regulations updated, the role of women, and the economic impact on them is undervalued at an unprecedented rate in India. In a recent policy brief on ‘The Impact of COVID-19 on Women’ by the United Nations on 9^th April 2020, it was stated that “Women will be the hardest hit by this pandemic but they will also be the backbone of recovery in communities.” 

The threat of the pandemic worsening the pre-existing gender inequalities is rising, with a risk of erasing the limited gains of women liberation made in the past few decades in India and worldwide. It is widely known the abysmal manner in which the center handled the migrant labour situations, but often the cases of women migrant labours are overlooked in the broader term of this case.

Women’s Position in Coronavirus

Unpaid care work has increased for women, within households, and informal care jobs. Established gender norms have added responsibilities to women performing the majority of the household chores and care work, and sadly these are not paid and invisible in the economic sense of nature. Women perform 9.6 times more unpaid care work than men, according to a report by the International Labour Organization.

Teachers and nurses are underpaid in the formal care sectors, and even though educational institutes are closed, some teachers still have to go to school for administrative purposes. Sanya Bannerjee, a preschool teacher in a well-reputed school in Vadodara, Gujarat is a single mother of an 8-year-old son. She recounts her experience, “We teachers don’t have to go to school every day, maybe twice or thrice a week. I have to leave my son with the neighbors as the school crèche is closed. I cannot avoid my work as it is my only source of income now. Earlier, I used to take tuitions, but that has stopped since March. I am worried about the health of my son, but I have to go to work for both of us.”

Around the world, women earn less than men and are more likely to be employed in the informal sector, especially in south-Asian countries. With reduced social security and entrenched gender norms, their ability to absorb economic shocks is less than that of men. The pandemic and the economic crisis in India has created a detrimental atmosphere for the single-parent household.

Deepali a domestic helper from Khar, Mumbai says, “I haven’t worked for three months. Out of four houses, only one house paid my salary all these months. In the beginning of the year, I had got a job for washing dishes. But you know, these rich people get to know everything first, and they made some absurd reason and asked me not to come to work in the middle of February. Now I cannot go looking for jobs. Many societies here have rules not to allow people like us to enter because we come from Jhopar-Patti areas. It has been very difficult for me to make ends meet. I am desperately in need of work.” Deepali worked in houses in Santa Cruz and Bandra. She adds that once she was given 3kg of dal and rice from an NGO, but now Deepali and her daughter survives on rice water and boiled vegetables.

According to a recent article on the New York Times, it was reported that female labour participation decreased to 21% from 32% from the year 2005 to 2018 in the country. Women are at a much higher risk of losing their existing jobs and the lack of employment opportunities is said to make it tougher for Indian women to re-enter professional workspace.

Women and girls perform three times more unpaid care and domestic work than men. In the informal sector, they have limited access to social protection and paid sick leaves. While this invisible economy has a positive impact on the formal economy, it has a much greater negative impact on women’s lives.

The mental strain on women worrying about their job security is causing major anxiety-related mental health issues. Due to a low or negligible support system, they are truly in a vulnerable position. The social distancing rules have induced an undesirable effect of a safety norm since it has created a greater physical divide for women to reach out for help. Lack of a support system and negligible safety nets has created a catastrophic environment for women like Deepali and Sanya. 

The discussion of the drawbacks of policies by the government in this period of the pandemic in gender-neutral terms has downplayed the economic impact on women’s lives.  The national media and prominent political figures often wash away the unique issues and situations faced by women due to the systemic social disadvantage. It is imperative to address challenges faced by women and form policies keeping their needs at the center of it.

Conclusion:

A major economic recession announced by the International Monetary Fund, and it is deemed to be unique than any previous global recession. This likelihood will bring challenges to the vulnerable and weaker members of our society, especially women. The progress in women empowerment over the years is likely to be erased in these difficult times as women are burdened with more unpaid care work, domestic labour and gender pay gaps. Women are distanced from NGOs and other organizations for help in current times, which is likely the cause of the rise of domestic violence. Policies should be formed, taking the sensitive issues faced by women, as they have comparatively weaker social safety nets.

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The first case of novel-coronavirus was reported in the state of Kerala on January 30, 2020 and as of June 31, 2020 the total number of positive cases stands at 5,86,056 including 2,20,728 active cases, 3,47,851 discharged/recovered and 17,411 deaths have been confirmed across India (Source). To effectively prevent the spread of COVID-19, well-organized testing programs, and extensive efforts to isolate infected people, contact tracing and quarantining people they have come in contact with is the need of the hour. Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) on June 31 informed that till then 88,26,585 samples have been tested of which 2,17,931 samples were tested in the last 24 hours.

Right from the outbreak of the COVID-19 several preventive strategies are adopted by the central government in consultation with states. After the lockdown is lifted there lies a huge burden on the states to work on containment of the virus. Recently through social media, COVID-19 comparison ratios are becoming widely popular where certain states and their administration are being widely criticized for their testing rates and inefficiency.

Flatten the Curve – State’s Difficulties.

It is relatively easy to design for the perfect cases, when everything goes right, or when all the information required is available in a proper format

 Donald Norman

Adequate testing and proper information are the only means through which public health intervention by the state can be done both diagnostically and therapeutically to flatten the curve. But the figures released cannot be perceived in isolation, they should be tallied with the population (test per million) of the state or test positivity rate in the state which captures the size of epidemic and scale of testing in number. 

Delhi has one of the highest testing rates per million but in terms of test positivity rate, it is relatively performing low. Also, the test positivity rates show wide variations in Delhi at 23 per cent positivity rate and Telangana at 18 per cent whereas West Bengal is at 3.5 per cent. Test positivity rates show the prevalence of infection and approach adopted where the epidemic is growing and tests are lagging. 

This presents a huge problem with respect to expanding the amount of testing base in the country because even though the testing rates are increasing in the country as a whole, positivity rates are constant at 7.4 to 8.1 per cent. So this presents a picture that there is no proper circulation of data which can show the exact incidence of the disease through which we can estimate whether we are testing enough. Overburdening of Government hospitals and reduced testing needs to be encountered as part of expanding the testing base in the country.

Testing Deregulation as a Way: Private players

With the rise in the risks of community spread of the virus, the Telangana government is often being criticized for its approach of not engaging private labs in testing even after demands pertaining to that was made by ICMR and Telangana High Court. 

Engaging private players in the fight can always be treated as a viable option because of efficiency. Also, these players are controlled by an incentive-based environment where performance is always rated. Germany’s success in testing for the virus proves the mechanism engaging the present approach. Germany has been testing more than one hundred thousand people per week since late February. By April 20, it had tested more than twenty-five persons per thousand. Compare this to India, where the testing rate is less than one person per thousand. One reason for Germany’s success is a relatively freer market for medical testing compared to India. Private companies in Germany were able to mass-produce the test kits early on, as they were less burdened by a central regulatory body like the Indian Council of Medical Research. 

In the name of quality maintenance, there is a heavy licensing mechanism for private labs inserted by Indian Council of Medical Research but it has forgone the key idea that then government organizations private players predict the probabilities of demand in the community concerning testing as they need to make living out of it. It is just the way they predict stock prices.

Conclusion

The primary question that arises most often in the community is “How many tests are enough tests?” and “When will we reach normalcy?”. The only answer for that would be that all states should ideally keep a watch at the indicators such as positivity rate and condition of spread in an epidemic that needs immediate attention. Thus till vaccine comes into the picture we can flatten the curve only by considering the epidemiological indicators and rampant testing through the inclusion of private players.

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