India-Russia consultation on UNSC issues

A delegation from the Indian Republic, being led by Shri Vikas Swarup, from the Ministry of External Affairs, met with a delegation being led by Mr. Sergey Vasilyevich Vershinin, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. The consultations focused on India’s acceptance of the non-permanent seat of the United Nations Security Council. The Russian side appreciated India taking its place within the family of nations. Both sides focused on the agenda for the 2021-22 tenure. The Indian delegation along with emphasizing its commitment to deepen cooperation on counter-terrorism at multilateral platforms apprised the Russian delegation on its priorities. Lastly, the two countries decided to work closely together, given the common challenges faced and in keeping with their long-standing Special and Strategic Privileged Partnerships.

Unwarranted references to India in resolutions adopted by the Organisation of the Islamic Conference

On the 29th of November, the Ministry of External Affairs released a statement rejecting the references made to the Republic of India in the recent resolutions adopted by the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) at the 47th CFM session in Niamey, Republic of Niger. The ministry reinstated its belief that the Organisation for Islamic Conference has no locus standi in matters pertaining to domestic governance of the country, which also includes the highly volatile region of Jammu and Kashmir which the current government believes to be an integral and inalienable part of India. India expressed its contempt at the fact that the organization was being used by a country that itself has been under the spotlight numerous times in the past for religious tolerance, radicalism, and prosecution of minorities. The country finally delivered an ultimatum of sorts by suggesting that the Organisation for Islamic Conference refrain from making such unwarranted and factually incorrect references to India.

India- United Kingdom Dialogue

The Prime Minister of India, Shri Narendra Modi spoke to His Excellency Mr. Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on the 27th of November. The two leaders started their consultation by shedding light on the current situation in regards to COVID 19 in their specific countries and used the opportunity to promise cooperation between India and the UK in the area of vaccine development and manufacturing. The two leaders explored the possibility of further strengthening relations between the two countries, in areas related to trade and investment, scientific research, mobility of students and professionals, and defense and security. The two sides recalled their commitment to platforms like the International Solar Alliance and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure while agreeing that delegations from both countries should work towards creating a roadmap for the India-UK partnership.

India commitments at Afghanistan Conference 2020

The Afghanistan Conference, organized in Geneva, co-hosted by the United Nations, The government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, and the government of Finland, saw the participation of an Indian delegation, been led by S. Jaishankar. The External Affairs Minister announced at the conference that India had just concluded with Afghanistan an agreement for the construction of the Shatoot dam, which would provide safe drinking water to 2 million residents of Kabul city. India had earlier built the 202-km Phul-e-Khumri transmission line that provided

electricity to Kabul city. The Ministry of External Affairs recently also announced the launch of Phase-IV of the High Impact Community Development Projects in Afghanistan, which envisages more than 100 projects worth US$ 80 million that India would undertake in Afghanistan. In his statement, Jaishankar emphasized India’s long term commitment to the development of Afghanistan and the benefit of its people as a contiguous neighbour and strategic partner. The delegation also highlighted India’s efforts to provide alternate connectivity through Chabahar port and a dedicated Air Freight Corridor between India and Afghanistan. Lastly, Jaishankar voiced his concerns in regards to the increasing level of violence in Afghanistan and reiterated India’s call for an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire.

India-EU consultation on disarmament and non-proliferation

The European Union and India held the sixth round of consultations on disarmament and non-proliferation. The consultation saw the sides exchange vital information on areas of nuclear, chemical, biological disarmament and non-proliferation, outer space security issues, strategic stability. Environment and other developments of mutual interest. The main aim of the consultations was to enhance mutual understanding and appreciation between India and the EU on international security issues.

4th NSA Level Meeting on Trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation

The Indian National Security Advisor Shri Ajit Doval, visited Colombo to participate in the 4th NSA Level Meeting on Trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation. The meeting previously had been held in the Maldives in 2011, Sri Lanka in 2013, and India in 2014. The NSA level meetings have served as a platform for cooperation among Indian Ocean countries. Apart from the Defence Secretary of Sri Lanka and NSA Shri Ajit Doval from India, Defence Minister H.E. Mariya Didi will also participate in the meeting representing the Maldives. The meeting will provide an opportunity for discussion on issues pertaining to cooperation in maritime security in the Indian Ocean region. On the sidelines of the Trilateral Meeting, NSA is also expected to have other high-level bilateral engagements.

Bahrain, UAE, and Seychelles

External Affairs Minister, Dr. S.Jaishankar undertook a visit to Bahrain, UAE, and Seychelles from the 24th to the 29th of November, during which he met his counterparts and the leaders of the countries. Jaishankar’s visit to Bahrain is his first to the country since he took on the role as External Affairs Minister of India. Jaishakar used the opportunity to convey condolences on behalf of the Government of India and the people of India to the Bahrininin leadership on the demise of Prime Minister HH Prince Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa. The Minister will hold talks with the Bahrain leadership on bilateral issues as well as regional and international issues of mutual interest.

The External Affairs Minister visited the United Arab Emirates next, during which he met the Foreign Minister of UAE, HH Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan. During the interaction between the two leaders, they focused on taking forward the excellent cooperation between Indian and the United Arab Emirates under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The meeting reached a productive outcome as the two leaders were able to discuss ways in which Indian workers could resume their jobs in the UAE, as more than 3 million Indians live and work in the country. India and the UAE have maintained close contact during the pandemic. Prime Minister Modi has spoken to the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi HH Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during the pandemic. The two heads of state also co-chaired the India-UAEJoint Commission Meeting in September 2020.

Lastly, Jaishankar visited the Republic of Seychelles on the 27th and the 28th of November 2020. The Foreign Affairs Minister met with the newly elected President, H.E. MR. Wavel Ramkalawan to present greetings of Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, and discussed with him what the priorities for the Indian government are and focused on exploring new areas and avenues for strengthening India-Seychelles bilateral relations.

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While it has been regarded as a continuum of economic and developmental prospects for Pakistan, it has also, significantly, given birth to a series of domestic economic and political issues in Pakistan. It is an instrument whereby China seeks to establish its hegemony through the combined use of hard and soft power, relying greatly on its “debt-trap diplomacy”. The debt outcome of the CPEC project is already about $80 billion, with 90% of it to be paid for by Islamabad in the form of the national debt. Even though Islamabad is still presenting a rosy picture of CPEC and its developmental prospects for Pakistan, it is well known that it will not be able to pay China back and will eventually lose its sovereignty and become another linchpin in the Chinese debt trap strategy. Experts and media reports have already been referring to it as a “Trillion Dollar Blunder”.

This mega billion dollar project has turned out to be more of a Non-Performing Asset (NPA) for China than a boon, especially when the world has been badly hit by the pandemic. The CPEC has proven to be more of a bogus project that hardly offers any profits with lagging industrialisation efforts and only a quarter of the decided projects completed over the last five years. With China facing an economic slowdown and depleting dollar reserves, it is itself in desperate need of the USD and is trying to woo foreign investors to its financial markets. With the trade war with the US and the Chinese export market facing an all-time low due to the diplomatic distancing and the Western countries’ ire over China’s role in the spread of Coronavirus pandemic, a big blow has been landed on to the Belt and Road Initiative, especially the CPEC project that is greatly faltering and has turned out to be China’s biggest NPA. With the global supply chains being badly hit, the OBOR Initiative is no longer a marker of China’s long-term vision and magnanimity; rather it is regarded as an investment blunder of colossal scale. The CPEC, which sowed dreams of a developed Pakistan with the most profitable and developed infrastructure has and the region into a hub of trade and commerce has instead turned it into a centre of gargantuan infrastructure with negative profitability and zero utility. The Chinese banks and financial institutions have been shirking away from funding the CPEC, as it is evidently nil on profit, given Pakistan’s inability to repay the Chinese loans. 

There is a huge gap in the announced projects of 2015 and completed projects of 2020, with only 32 of the 122 announced projects seeing the light of the day. The CPEC project is lagging behind as it has been facing many shortcomings like lack of funds, trade asymmetries, domestic issues, bad loans for China which does not want to fund the CPEC projects and opposition from Baloch rebels and local who will be directly impacted by this rollout. Large energy projects have been shelved as this NPA faces major bottlenecks due to unsustainable debt levels. China is reluctant to provide assistance as the venture does not provide any returns and is a fund drain. Moreover, Pakistan’s long standing challenges have been aggravated by the CPEC; it entails economic, environmental, social and political costs the state which faces an exacerbated energy deficit, creating a greater dependence for fossil fuels that are harming the environment as well. The CPEC was roped in on its premise of turning Pakistan into a higher-value manufacturing hub, however, what is seen at present is that the huge majority of special economic zones (SEZs) are empty, and the information and communication technology (ICT) projects that were to provide the backbone have been halted and limited. 

Conclusion

Thus, the CPEC is a gamble for China and Pakistan, contrary to their narrative of completing the CPEC at all means. It has already increased Pakistan’s current account deficit and China does not want to invest more where there is no way of recouping their investment and the Return of Investment (RoI) rate shows a gloomy picture. For the Dragon, given the calamitous economic situation Pakistan is in, even the chances of recovery of principal amounts spent by the Chinese financial institutions is a far-fetched dream and thus, the “iron-brotherhood” may be in a jeopardy. The Chinese funds kept Pakistan afloat and prevented it from sinking into the economic doom, however with the funds getting halted and dried up, CPEC faces cost escalations being beneficial for none. Rather than an asset, it has become a liability and has been added to the list of China’s NPA.

References: 

Chinese banks’ reluctance towards CPEC hint towards their funding gap. (2020, August 27). Wion .

Afzal, M. (2020). “At all costs”: How Pakistan and China control the narrative on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Brookings.

Business Standard . (2018, April 17). Pak’s current account deficit rises due to CPEC: ADB report. Business Standard.

Hillman, J. E., McCalpin, M., & Brock, K. (2020). The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor at Five. CSIS.

The EurAsian Times. (2020, July 4). CPEC Project A ‘Trillion-Dollar Blunder’, Pakistan Calls It ‘Outstanding Initiative’. The EurAsian Times.

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In a city where house rents can reach even up to Rs.1.2 lakhs per month, Dharavi provides an affordable option. Rents here can be as low as Rs.250 per month. The issue of unaffordable rental housing began with the introduction of the Maharashtra Rent Control Act of 1999. The rent control markedly reduced the incentives for landlords to maintain rental properties as they would receive nominal returns for doing so. Rent control and restrictive land policies also discouraged private investment in housing. Price control has also led to a shortage of flats in Mumbai by decreasing the prospect of profits for developers, thus pushing more people into slums like Dharavi.

What Is The Redevelopment Project?

Dharavi is located at the intersection of two main train lines and just a few kilometers away from the Bandra-Kurla Complex. The Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport lies less than 5 miles away and famous landmarks namely the Gateway to India and Colaba are also nearby. As a result, the value of the properties has soared and developers and the government have begun looking at ways to redevelop the area to capture the value of the land.  The current plan, which was put forth by Mukesh Mehta, was accepted by the government in 2004 and proposed the idea of increasing the floor-space index of Dharavi from 1.33 to 4, thus concentrating current residents into multi-story buildings.

Under the scheme, which was tweaked many times (the latest amendment was in October 2018), private developers can purchase slum land from the government at a low price and redevelop the land. After purchasing the land and obtaining the consent of 70 percent of the residents of the slum, the developer can clear the land and provide the eligible slum residents with free of cost housing. Those residents who can prove that they have been living in the slum prior to January 1, 2000, will get free tenement, and those who are residing in hutments built before January 1, 2011, will have to pay the construction cost of the tenement. The families will get a redeveloped unit measuring a minimum of 350 square feet. Those above 300 square feet will get 400 square feet, and those over 500 will get an additional area of 35 percent. In return, the developer can construct commercial and residential buildings on the rest of the land and sell them on the market. Through this model, some of Mumbai’s most prominent development projects have been built on former slum land. For instance, Imperial Towers were built on former slum land where the current model of slum redevelopment was first used.

Shortcomings Of The Model

While Mehta’s proposal was accepted in 2004, there has not been much development in the project. The primary obstacle being massive opposition from current residents who feel that the proposed amount of space is not enough.  There is no space allocated for the operation of informal businesses, raising fears that their sources of income would be shut down. Government negligence is also a big impediment responsible for the delay of the project.

The informal nature of Dharavi’s economy has limited the government’s ability to understand its capacity and the positive externality it creates by independently handling municipal waste and encouraging sustainability in Mumbai through recycling. The government has made no offer to compensate residents for the loss of their businesses. The government’s proposals have focused entirely on the strategies for rehousing of slum-dwellers, with little thought of how they will seek meaningful livelihoods once their small businesses are closed down.

These buildings will most definitely resolve the issue of hygiene and sanitation to a great extent but it still encountered resistance from the residents. They feel that a tower structure will destroy the community sentiment that has allowed the proliferation of Dharavi’s micro-industries. The huge population of Dharavi and its proximity to the business district can also pose implementation challenges.

The current model does not provide specific standards on the quality of rehabilitation buildings. The discretion is left to developers. Some of the rehabilitation buildings are designed in a way that compromises the living standards of residents. There is the danger that these buildings will become “vertical slums”.

Due to the eligibility criteria for the provision of free housing, the ineligible population is left with no option but to stay in an unauthorized manner in slums. Many of them will have to settle in a new slum after their previous slum is demolished by the government.

As the current model provides free housing to the slum dwellers, developers have to cover the cost of rehabilitation housing by increasing the prices of the commercial and residential buildings built on the rest of the land which ultimately leads to the increase of housing prices on the formal market.

Past Policy Failures

Policy failure has been a recurring theme in the story of the redevelopment of Dharavi. In 1971, the Maharashtra Government created the Slum Improvement Programme (SIP) which was intended to provide some basic facilities to the area like water, electricity, toilets, and sewage disposal but could not do so due to no comprehensive census of slums of Mumbai.

In 1976, the government attempts to give the slum dwellers with legitimate status. For this purpose, they created photo identities. However, the scheme ended due to a lack of records of residents. Also, part of the slum was not owned by the government and was under de facto control of the slum lords who did not want to give it up by allowing redevelopment.

In 1985, Slum Upgradation Programme (SUP) which was funded by the World Bank came into effect. Slum land was leased out to cooperative groups of slum dwellers at affordable prices and loans were granted for environmental and housing improvements. However, it was unable to overcome a key hurdle which was that a large portion of the slum was on private holdings.

In 1995, the government put in place the Slum Rehabilitation Authority (SRA) to address the issue of slums in the state through a Slum Rehabilitation Scheme (SRS). The scheme took into account many of the shortcomings not addressed by the previous schemes. Though the plan was not successful as it required consent of 75 per cent of the slum population but was unable to do so. Several residents who did receive the redevelopments under the scheme rented them out for an additional source of income and continued to stay in their shanties. Out of 100,000 units, only 3486 units consented for the programme by the year 2000.

Some Amendments

Dharavi has grown into its own ecosystem over the years. Residents rely on the micro-enterprises, some of which make use of the outdoor spaces to operate their businesses. It is imperative to residents that their livelihoods are supported during this change. In order for the upgrade to work for the residents, it’s crucial that the redevelopment also considers the economic and social activities that flourish in slums. The businesses need to be provided with some liberty. By creating an area for industrial and commercial purposes, Dharavi can grow beyond imagination.

The housing stock which is created in the formal market is mostly in the luxury or semi-luxury segment which does not cater to the demand for affordable houses by low and middle-income groups of the population. The government should consciously create housing stock for low and middle-income groups. Under the current laws, 19 percent of the total houses in Maharashtra are lying vacant. The government must create an environment to bolster the rental market.

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“Health is the core of human development”

– Gro Harlem Brundtland

Economy and health are inseparable. Healthy people can live a prosperous life leading to more productivity, saving and investment, boosting economic growth and development. When an economy is interrupted by an unusual happening, economic effects follow up. Morbidity rate – the percentage of people infected, mortality rate- death rate, duration of the pandemic’s existence, number of workweeks lost, level of inequality during and after pandemic are some of the variables which can be used to estimate the economic effects of the pandemic.

Effects on supply

At the very initial stage when the disease starts spreading it creates panic among workers and there are possibilities for the rise in the rate of absenteeism. When the situation turns worse and the government intervenes by preventive and curative actions through lockdown and quarantine then it leads to loss of working weeks, shut down of businesses and industries at least till the restrictions are eased. Even after industries resume its functions, there will be a restriction on the number of workers, possibilities of workers getting affected by the disease or being deceased or laid off. This will not only affect a separate industry but there will be a break in the supply chain due to the breakdown of linkages– the flow of intermediate inputs in production. In the present time where many countries have trade liberalization, international flow of goods and services may also get severely affected. Businesses will hesitate to make an investment. Tourism, aviation, automotive, real estate, manufacturing industries of non-essential commodities may face loss while health care product industries, E-commerce may become some of the potential gainers at least for a short term.

Effects on wage

The Black Death of the 14^th century wiped out a quarter of Western Europe’s population, had economic effects like a drop in GDP, hike in the price of basic commodities and hit in the agriculture sector. But on the perspective of income, some thought to have positive or no effect on income per capita at least in France and England. Even 1918 influenza has had a positive impact on income per capita in the US. 

In a simple economic model, when the supply of labour is reduced in the manufacturing sector, initially there will be an increase in the marginal product of labour and capital per worker, increasing the real wage for a short term. The same way in a research it was found that over the period of 1914 to 1919 there was a greater increase in the manufacturing wage growth in the cities and states of the United States where influenza mortalities were greater. This may be possible only in short term but in the long run, fall in demand, loss of skilled workers, political pressure to control the wage, higher mobility of workers, reduction in human capital may result in equalization of wage. There is no clear view on both short and long term effects, as it depends on various circumstances.

Effects on demand

The anxiety created by the pandemic situation may result in loss of consumer confidence, people may hand back to spend. The economic cost may rise irrespective of whether the morbidity and mortality rate is high or low. The anxiety created during SARS (2003) outbreak which relatively had low mortality rate led to the economic cost of over 11 billion dollars in the areas where tourism and business were affected. The precautionary measures to avoid the spread of disease may isolate people from other activities like going to gymnasium, theatre, hotels etc. There may be effects on savings too.

Poverty and Inequality

Generally, the most vulnerable section, prone to diseases, is the poor due to lack of good sanitation, health care facilities and insufficient nutritious food. Even if the pandemic affects people indiscriminately the degree of an economic burden to be borne by the poor will be more.  During the lockdown, they have to face a hard time as most of their lives depend on day to day wages. Poor people may not have life insurance due to non-affordability or lack of information/awareness, in such a case if the principal earning person dies in that family the economic situation of that family will become worse and it will prolong until another person from the family enters into the working population with sufficient income. Education may become a distant dream, as the unfavourable economic situation may force them to send their children to work than to school, but education is one of the significant factors for the development of an individual as well as the economy a whole. 

The historians noted an improvement in economic equality after Black Death of 14^th century but currently, the pandemic situation which we are facing is quite different, now technology has taken lead. Right from health care services to education to work, for time being, is dependent on the internet. In the case of education students who cannot afford to electronic devices with internet connections or from remote rural areas will be set back. Half of the world’s population does not have access to the internet. If the gender gap prevails in access to the internet then it will increase the disparity between men and women. According to research, nearly 15% of the workforce on an average from 35 advanced and emerging countries, among 189 member countries of IMF is unable to do their works remotely. Even when vaccines are developed, distributional inequality may arise both within and between countries. Not only during its existence but even after COVID-19 vanishes a fear emerges that it may have an impact on inequality in different ways.

Loss of life can never be comparable at any cost.  

“Hope is important because it can make the present moment less difficult to bear. If we believe that tomorrow will be better, we can bear a hardship today.”

 -Thich Nhat Hanh

Even when Spanish flu led to the death of nearly 3-5% of the population and having a severe impact on the economy by increasing the unemployment and poverty, history shows that humankind with resilience fought back and got recovered soon. There is a greater chance of being flexible to the unforeseen circumstances to bounce back to normality. Fiscal and monetary measures used by the government, funds from international organizations, improvement in public health, infrastructure, education, cooperation by the people, love and compassion for others, giving a helping hand to the needy and most importantly faith in healing to have a better future will definitely lead us to recovery.

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With the similar objective of promoting investments through transparent and expedient approvals by implementation of an online system, further delegation, rationalization and standardization of the process as part of ease of doing business in March 2020, the environment ministry proposed a draft notification to replace the 2006 EIA. Currently, the notification is at the stage of public comments. This draft raised key concerns among the communities as it primarily provides for a reduction of time period from 30 days to 20 days for the public to submit their responses during a public hearing for any application seeking environmental clearance.

It also requires that the public hearing process be completed in 40 days compared to 45 days under the 2006 notification. In addition to this projects can receive clearance post-facto, i.e. a project operating in violation of the EPA can now apply for clearance and it also increased the discretionary power of state government to waive the process of getting clearance for strategic projects (where it can include long list of projects).

Background of Environment Impact Assessment and Public Hearing

Saving our planet, lifting people out of poverty, advancing economic growth… these are one and the same fight. We must connect the dots between climate change, water scarcity, energy shortages, global health, food security and women’s empowerment. Solutions to one problem must be solutions for all.

– Ban Ki-Moon

India issued the country’s first Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) notification in 1994, under the Environment (Protection) Act (EPA) of 1986. This was later replaced by a modified draft in 2006. In both forms, the EIA performs the important function of assessing and regulating the impact of new projects on the environment and empowers the public to participate in the process of approvals.

The Environmental Impact Assessment report, Environment Management Plan and details of public consultations have to be submitted by the project proponents to the Expert Appraisal Committee (EAC) for appraisal of the project. The 2006 notification made clearance of a four-step procedure with screening, scoping, public consultation, and appraisal as mandatory steps to be followed by project proponents before clearance could be granted. After these four steps have been followed, the recommendation for acceptance or rejection of EC is sent to the regulatory authority, which is the MoEF for category ‘A’ and State Level Environment Impact Assessment Authority (SEIAA) for category B projects. Public consultation is the third step in the process of environmental clearance.

The enactment of this procedure was influenced by series of environmental problems which can be exemplified through the cases such as Bichri village where many villages, agricultural land water of the wells, surface water, cattle, and human beings were badly affected because of the industrial operation in the district of the Udaipur, state of Rajasthan and Tanneries case where public hearing before setting up of the factory was considered as an important measure. In the Samarth Trust Case, the Delhi high court had considered EIAs “a part of participatory justice in which the voice is given to the voiceless and it is like a jan sunwai, where the community is the jury”.

Sustainable Development

It is often argued that the process of environment clearance is leading to piling up of files and delays in projects. Developers complain that the EIA regime dampened the spirit of liberalization, leading to red-tapism and rent-seeking. This is the present state of implementation of existing mechanisms in Kerala, the administration took 1,049 days to clear the construction of the IT park project of M/s L&T Tech Park Ltd, instead of 105 days.

Amidst this, in the case of Vellore Citizens Welfare Forum vs UOI  it is held that companies are vital for the country’s development, but having regard to pollution, the doctrine of ‘Sustainable Development’ must be adopted by them as a balancing concept. If final clearance is granted after taking into account the environmental, social, and health concerns, then it can be said that the government is using this process as a tool to ensure sustainability which implies that the delay in clearance should be encountered while balancing it with the above concerns.

Reduced capacity to clearance and administrative inefficiency in granting clearance was often highlighted right from Sterlite to LG polymers’ case which has shown us the dampening spirit of the government towards already existing environmental laws.

Conclusion

A solution to development should also solve the problem of mounting environmental challenges. Introduction of environmental impact assessment is the hallmark of participatory governance in the country and dilution of this in any way hampers the primary aim of promoting a sustainable environment. Encountering bureaucratic inefficiency would always be a welcoming step but granting discretionary powers to the same authority would always raise concerns among the communities.

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