Relations Post COVID Pandemic

The ongoing pandemic has created a time of uncertainty, but one certain thing is that once the pandemic ends, there will be an air of distrust in the global market towards China, and their economic, as well as political prowess, will take a hit. This is seen as an advantage for India and a favourable condition for the USA in a cold conflict which has been going on for the better part of the last two years. This has been fueled further by Donald Trump who has continuously referred to COVID as the ‘Chinese Virus’ in his official briefings.  Trump has been asking his allies within Europe to take a similar stance of blaming China for the health and economic distress. India has played the ball with caution and not followed suit by joining America’s call for blaming the situation fully on to China. Rather, India had been in close contact with health officials from both China and the USA during the early stages of the pandemic. This aligned with India’s long-existing value of international cooperation.  Nonetheless, some things need to be kept in mind when India will be forming their policy about the two countries after the pandemic ends, or possibly slows down. First of all, one needs to expect that the relationship between China and the USA will remain sour. This comes from a simple deduction that China has ambitions that go far beyond India, Russia or South Asia for that matter. China is trying to take up the position of a superpower in the international community as is understood by the international community. Further, the USA has already noticed this ambition and has been trying to keep it in check. Whether it is in the form of a trade war or simple political jargon, the USA is trying to retaliate. India, in this scenario, needs to keep its patience. There is no doubt that India has economic interests in both countries, but it will not be hard to argue that India tends to side with America, when it comes to making a choice between the two. An important aspect of post-COVID relations is the economy. For now, we see that China has already started recovering from the pandemic in economic terms as China has started recovering the losses it incurred during the early months of the pandemic. The same cannot be said about India or even the USA. Even though it is clear that the two countries are still going through the pandemic and have not reached their respective peaks, the current signs show that it won’t be soon that they start to recover economically. As Modi has always claimed that the purpose of foreign policy will be to achieve economic prowess, it can be argued that India needs to make use of its foreign policy to economically recover from COVID. A point for worrying is that India will not be able to compete with China in terms of economic recovery on its own because of the simple lack of skill labour capacity. China’s labour socialism has developed labour skill at a level which India, at this point cannot compare with, statistically speaking. Global economists agree that national labour capacity will be the key for recovery post COVID. Even though Modi’s use of the term ‘Atma-Nirbhar’ may be good for showing a certain national self-dependence, on the ground, India cannot compare with China. Similarly, the USA is in a stronger position in terms of labour capital than India, but it is too early to judge that against China. On the other hand, various international politics scholars also believe that India’s bargaining power will increase in a more than likely limited cold war between USA and China, post-COVID. This stems from the simple fact that India has a huge consumer market in which both countries would want to invest in. Therefore, India needs to make use of its market. Lastly, in a post COVID world, India needs to focus on the global flow of labour and capital, with its established strategic partners in Europe, Middle East and South-East Asia. The USA might not be as equally dependent but they too will need to foreign cooperation. A few days back PM Modi invited American investment in India and that is a positive move. Since India has been trying to move away from China, in terms of economic dependence at least, Modi makes the right move by inviting increased cooperation and investment from America.

Defence Alliances Post the Galwan Clash

The ‘Boycott China’ movement of Indians may reflect that Indians might want to move towards self-dependence but such transformation is to be considered as a long term solution. The crux remains that India needs to maintain its economic relation with China as long as it practically can. If things boil beyond control, India needs to think of an economic plan while at the same time it thinks about its border measures.

Conclusion

India, China and the USA will become a much more interesting international dynamic in the coming years with China’s growing ambition. Nonetheless, India’s priority has to be to economically recover from COVID. Improving economic ties with the West is the clear cut answer to that along with an increased focus on entrepreneurial self-dependence. Moving on, a closer defensive relation with the US also seems to be the way ahead, without severing economic ties with China, for as long as possible. India needs to be more vigilant on the border if it doesn’t want to be walked over by China again. Such strategic partnerships will help India to grow economically, as well as maintain its existing influence over South Asia and possibly expand upon it, in the years to come.

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Some major updates to cover in today’s Indian Foreign Policy Report are as follow:

United Nations Economic and Social Council

On the 75th anniversary of the United Nations ECOSOC, this week, the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi delivered the keynote address at the virtual gathering. This happened to be the second time, that Mr Modi had the opportunity to address the council, as he had delivered the keynote address back when the council was celebrating its 70th anniversary in the year 2015. However, this does happen to be the first opportunity the Prime Minister has had to address the gathering of member nations since India was overwhelmingly elected as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. The summit was themed around Multilateralism post- COVID-19 and the kind of United Nations we need on the 75th anniversary.

During the address, the Prime Minister called for a reformed multilateralism with a reformed United Nations at its centre. He also stressed on India’s motto, ‘Sabkasaath, Sabkavikaas, Sabkavishwas’, that resonated with the SDG principle of leaving no one behind. The Prime Minister also used this opportunity to reflect on India’s perseverance in improving the socio-economic situation in the country. On that note, he said, “While marching forward on the path to development, we are not forgetting our responsibility towards our planet.” In terms of India’s effort in battling the virus, the Prime Minister praised the system in place by commenting, “Our grassroots health system is helping India attain one of the best recovery rates around the world, in the fight against COVID.”

A large majority of the Prime Minister’s speech revolved around International cooperation and India’s role and partnership with the ECOSOC and other international bodies. The present member states, made note of a significant impact on the global SDGs, due to India’s contribution to the improvement of socio-economic conditions and the support it provided to other developing countries. The Prime Minister also focussed on the role of the first responder that India has been carrying out in the region an example of which would be, India’s Operation Sagar, carried out in the Indian Ocean Region to provide both material and medical assistance to countries. Lastly, the Prime Minister spoke about the importance of financial inclusion and the necessity of providing housing and healthcare, by giving the example of the on-going development efforts in India, especially the ‘Swacch Bharat Abhiyan’ campaign.

Indo-Pak Relation

Relations between the two neighbours; India and Pakistan experienced a new low in the last few days as the Charge d’Affairs of Pakistan was summoned by the Indian Government, following an unprovoked ceasefire violation by Pakistani forces on the night of the 17th of July, 2020 in the

Krishna Ghati Sector in Jammu and Kashmir. Keeping in mind the soaring number of ceasefire violations by Pakistan which have resulted in the death of 21 Indians and have injured close to 94 civilians, has pushed India to strongly condemn the deliberate targeting of innocent civilians by the Pakistani forces. The Indian Government has also seized this opportunity to show their contempt at the subvert and continued Pakistani support for cross border terrorist infiltration into India. India has called upon Pakistan to adhere to the 2003 Ceasefire Understanding between the two countries, which requires them both to maintain peace and tranquillity along the Line of Control and the international border.

India Ideas Summit

The India Ideas Summit, being organized by the India-US Business Council, which is celebrating its 45th anniversary, had the prime Minister deliver the keynote address. The theme of this year’s summit is ‘Building a Better Future’. The summit essentially aims at developing a strategic working relationship between the United States and the Indian Republic. The summit will include both Indian and American government policymakers and state-level officials. Minister of External Affairs, Dr S Jaishankar, U.S Secretary of State Mr Mike Pompeo, Senator of Virginia and the co-chair of the Indian Caucus, Mr Mark Warner and the U.S ambassador to the United Nations, Ms Nikki Haley will be among those attending the summit. The summit essentially aims to discuss India-US cooperation and the relations between the two countries in a post COVID world.

India-Spain Foreign Office Consultations

India this week was a part of the 6th Foreign Office consultation with Spain, held on the 21st of July. The Indian delegation was led by Mr Vikas Swarup, Secretary (West). Meanwhile, the Spanish side had, Ms Cristina Gallach, Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, Ibero-America, and the Caribbean, at its helm. The two countries along with discussing reforms and opportunities for enhancing bilateral economic cooperation exchanged views on the COVID 19 response and post- COVID recovery priorities. Lastly, the two sides revised agreements under consideration and mutually agreed to forward the bilateral agenda, including exchange by both sides.

Release of Nidan Singh Sachdeva

Nidan Singh Sachdeva, who was kidnapped last month from the Chamkani district in Pakita province on 22nd June 2020, was recently released from captivity. Nidan Singh belongs to the Hindu-Sikh community of Afghanistan. The Indian Government conveyed its appreciation to the Government of Afghanistan and various tribal leaders of the region for their help. The kidnapping of Nidan Singh has revealed the ongoing targeting and persecution of minority members by terrorists who are controlled by their external supporters. Lastly, in a decisive measure, India has decided to facilitate the return of those minority members who face external security threats.

Conclusion

Even though the country is experiencing a worsening of conditions with its neighbours, keeping in mind the recent development of tensions with Pakistan, over the unprovoked fire at the Line of Control, the country has extended a helping hand towards both nations like Afghanistan in the Middle East and at the same time European nations such as Spain. In the last few years the country has developed military relations with the United States, but in recent times it has looked at the possibility of venturing into developing an economic partnership with the superpower. Lastly, India’s image as developing power worldwide has been further augmented by its election into the United Nations Security Council and the keynote address delivered by the Prime Minister at the Economic and Social Council.

Read Also: INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY REPORT – EDITION #4

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