Democrat President Joe Biden’s decision to end support of the six-year-long Yemen war, and reassess American arms sales that began under his tenure as Vice President is surprisingly not what is making the headlines around the world this week. Jamal Khashoggi is a name that is familiar not just in journalistic circles but elsewhere too. Khashoggi was a Washington Post Saudi journalist who was killed in 2018 in Turkey. Following Khashoggi’s gruesome murder at the Saudi Embassy, fingers were instantly pointed at Saudi Arabia, and rather spectacularly on Mohammed Bin Salman, a.k.a, MBS. The Trump administration refused to publish a report linking MBS to the murder, despite the American legislature passing an act calling on intelligence services to provide evidence tying MBS to Khashoggi’s killing. However, matters are a bit different under the Democrat White House. Biden, who made it abundantly clear that his administration is not going to base their Middle East Policy on Saudi Arabia, unlike his predecessors, has finally called for the publication of the long blocked report in the public domain. What remains to be seen is how this is going to alter the relationship between the Americans and their strategically important partner in the Middle East.

Jamal Khashoggi had enjoyed a long and distinguished career in the Saudi Kingdom. He was known to have enjoyed close relations with the Royal family and often acted as an official spokesperson for them. . Khashoggi’s relationship with the ruling family and Saudi Arabia was redefined when King Salman’s son Mohammad Bin Salman started accumulating power and was soon made the Crown-Prince, set to inherit his father’s position. It is during this time Khashoggi distanced himself from the helm of power and became a critic of MBS and his policies often calling out the government and central political figures for imposing severe and autocratic policies. Despite his staunch stance, which fell well within the journalistic standards, no one foresaw what would befall Jamal Khashoggi. Khashoggi, having had come to terms with the threat looming over him, had relocated to the United States, in the form of a self-exile and had been a regular contributor to the Washington Post. Khashoggi in the summer of 2018 had travelled to Turkey in search of marital bliss. Tragically, before he could tie the knot, Jamal Khashoggi was reported missing from the Saudi embassy in Turkey and later pronounced dead.

Relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia were extremely warm under the Trump administration. However, the defining feature in this relationship wasn’t the two heads of state, rather the shots were called by Mohammad Bin Salman, and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The two young and like-minded individuals forged a close relationship in the second part of the decade, mainly due to their shared business mindset. In fact, Trump on Kushner’s urgings decided to make his first official overseas visit to Saudi Arabia. From the very onset of his Presidency, Trump cultivated a very close relationship with the Saudi Kingdom making it the fulcrum of his Middle-East policy, and viewing the country as an important ally against America’s long Middle East rival, the Islamic Republic of Iran. The relationship was further strengthened through the Trump Administration’s decision to increase arms sales to Saudi Arabia, whilst backing its campaign in the Yemen war.

Despite Trump and Kushner obviously viewing their Saudi counterparts as their bosom companions, it was still an utter shock to see Trump adopt an ambiguous stance towards the killing of Washington Post Journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Trumps’ decision to blatantly believe what the Crown-Prince had to say, shook the Congress and American Intelligence Services, as the CIA itself concluded with medium-high certainty that Mohammad Bin Salman was aware of and directly involved in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi.

In 2018, the United States Senate, unanimously passed Resolution 69, which recognised that the Government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has, in recent years engaged in concerning behaviour, which includes its conduct in the civil war in Yemen, the apparent detention of the Prime Minister of Lebanon, suppression of dissent in the Kingdom and of course the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. The resolution explicitly recognises the misleading statements issued by the Saudi government, and that the fact the recent actions have undermined trust and confidence in the long-standing friendship between the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The following resolution having been passed unanimously proved that the United States Senate was ready to take up its role in shaping foreign policy which it had long abdicated in favour of the executive. Despite the directness and consensual adoption of the resolution, it fell short of having any effect on American foreign policy. Owing simply to the fact that the Trump Administration actively suppressed its publication and wrote a blank cheque to the Saudi Government.

The United States turned a new page under the Biden Administration, as it seeks to calibrate American ties with the Gulf country. From the inception of Biden’s bid for the Presidency, he has portrayed a hard stance against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. During his campaign trails, he has gone to the extent of calling the country a ‘pariah’ state. In the short time that he has been in office, he has already reduced arms sales to the country, and the report presented to the Congress a few days ago by the Biden-Harris Administration was the proverbial last nail in the coffin. However, it is still early to determine the exact ramifications the report will have on the American-Saudi relationship and more importantly on the Kingdom’s de facto ruler MBS himself. The Biden administration may seem to be on a war footing undeterred by policies followed by their predecessors, but they have been extremely strategic. Apart from the incessant repetition by the White House Press Office, that decision would be taken keeping in mind that current relationship the two states share, Joe Biden prior to releasing the report also spoke to King Salman, the current head of state. Another anomaly that we see, is a dearth of White House officials rushing to the press to give insights into what the publication of the report means for the Saudis.

In the past few years, it has been evident to lawmakers on Capitol Hill and the intelligence services that Mohammed Bin Salman, wasn’t the top choice to be the leader of America’s closest ally in the Middle East. However, America’s top choice, Muhammad bin Nayef Al Saud, who served as the interior minister and was responsible for successfully countering the Al-Qaeda in the Kingdom, now lives in Canada in exile. The release of the report has just provided ammunition to the gun lying uncocked with the US Congress. Since the report by the Biden-Harris administration, we have already seen the imposition of the ‘Khashoggi Ban’, which is a new VISA policy, that sets new restrictions pursuant to section 21(a)(3)(C) of the Immigration and Nationality Act. The largely unanswered question that remains is how the American officials aim to publicly cooperate with a man who they have held responsible for an act of such nature. A possible divorce driven by public sentiment, or even a temporary souring of relations between the two countries could be a blessing in disguise for the IS and Al-Qaeda. However, another international actor set to benefit is the Islamic Republic of Iran. Ramifications of Joe Biden’s decision to halt arms sales to the Saudis were evident when Iran-backed Houthis rebels were quick to capitalise on this and decided to advance on several fronts. However, in the near future, we need to consider the possibility that America’s decision to distance itself from Riyadh, could very well open doors for China, Russia and may even push the Saudi officials to develop closer ties with the Israelis.

The release of the report, along with growing opposition to the Yemen war and President Biden’s insistence on speaking with King Salman, instead of his son MBS, has heralded a new era in US-Saudi relations. An era that is marked with a host of strategic calculations on the part of the United States, that are aimed at keeping Saudi Arabia at an arm’s length, while being able to exploit its strong position in the Middle East. Like many other acts of geopolitical significance that are often ignored in the hope of a natural solution, I fear this is not applicable in this case. Khashoggi’s death has stirred up feelings against the Saudi Kingdom and the leadership which could very well be directed towards America if they fail to act decisively in the near future.

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India-Turkmenistan Foreign Office Consultations

Virtual Foreign Consultations between the Indian Republic and Turkmenistan was held on the 13th of January, 2021. The Indian delegation was led by Shri Vikas Swarup, Secretary (West), while the delegation from Turkmenistan was led by H.E Mr. Vepa Hajiyev, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan.

The primary rationale behind the consultations was to undertake a systematic review of bilateral relations between the two countries. This included political, economic, commercial, defense, and consular cooperation. Both sides used the opportunity to exchange views on regional and international issues of mutual interests and agreed to enhance cooperation in the United Nations and the multilateral arena.

3rd Senior Officials Meeting of Arab-India Cooperation Forum

On the 12th of January 2021, the third India-Arab Cooperation Forum took place. The Forum meeting was co-chaired by Shri Sanjay Bhattacharyya, Secretary (CPV&OIA), and Ambassador Mohamed Abu Al-Kheir, Assistant Foreign Minister and Permanent Representative of Egypt to the League of Arab States with the participation of Senior Officials from the Arab States and India, as well as the General Secretariat of the League of Arab States.

The Representative hailed the strong foundation, great potential, and wide-ranging prospects for Arab-India cooperation. They also used the opportunity to recall the historic ties between the Arab world and India. Through the Forum, the leaders stressed the need for political solutions to regional issues and crisis in the Middle East, particularly the Palestinian issues, the crisis in Syria, Libya, and Yemen, and underscored the need for cooperation in combating terrorism and ensuring freedom of navigation and maritime security, according to the principles of international law.

The Arab side congratulated the Republic of India on its election as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for a two-year term (2021-2022), while looking forward to India’s continuing pivotal role at the international stage, particularly concerning regional issues of mutual concern. They agreed on the early scheduling of the joint activities of the Forum, including the 3rd Session of Arab-India Cultural Festival, the Symposium on Arab-India Cooperation in the field of Energy, the 1st Arab-India University Presidents Conference, the 2nd

Symposium on Arab-India Cooperation in the field of Media, and the 6th Session of Arab-India Partnership Conference.

India and France hold Strategic Dialogue

Shri Ajit Doval, National Security Advisor, led the Indian delegation during the India-France Strategic Dialogue. The French delegation was led by Mr. Emmanuel Bonne, Diplomatic Advisor to the French President.

The Strategic dialogue between the two countries included discussions on a variety of issues including counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, defense cooperation, and the Indo-Pacific region. Both sides reaffirmed the high priority they accord to the India-France strategic partnership and highlighted the convergence of views between the two countries.

Following his meeting with Shri Ajit Doval, the French advisor called upon the Prime Minister, Shiri Narendra Modi, the Defence Minister, and the External Affairs Minister. He also addressed the Vivekananda International Foundation on “France and India: Partners for a stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

India-Germany Leaders’ Video-Teleconference

The Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi held a video conference with his German counterpart, Federal Chancellor Dr. Angela Merkel. The Prime Minister started the exchange by appreciating, Dr. Merkel’s long-standing role in providing stable and strong leadership at the European and global stage, and thanked her for strengthening the India-Germany Strategic Partnership.

The two leaders discussed key issues of mutual importance including the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, bilateral ties, regional and global issues, particularly India-EU relations. The Prime Minister used the opportunity to brief his German counterpart on the developments in India with regard to vaccine development and assured her of India’s commitment to using its capacity for the betterment of all countries.

The Prime Minister welcomed Germany’s decision to join the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and expressed his desire to further strengthen cooperation with Germany under the platform of Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI). The two heads of state agreed to hold the sixth Intergovernmental Consultations at an early date in 2021, and to create an ambitious agenda for the same, given that this year marks the 70th anniversary of setting up bilateral relations between India and Germany.

Exchange of list of prisoners between India and Pakistan

Keeping with the provisions of the 2008 Agreement, The Indian Republic and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan exchanged lists of civilian prisoners and fishermen in their respective custody. The Indian government handed over a list of 263 Pakistani civilian prisoners and a list of 77 fishermen. The Pakistan government’s list included 49 Indian Civilians and a total of 270 fishermen, who according to the Islamic Republic are Indians or believed to be Indians.

Upon the exchange of lists, the Indian government asked to expedite the release and repatriation of 3 Indian civilian prisoners and 185 Indian fishermen, whose nationality has been confirmed and conveyed to Pakistan. Additionally, the Indian government has requested consular access to Indian fishermen and 22 civilians prisoners who are believed to be Indians. In keeping with the 2008 agreement, the Indian government requested access for Indian medical personnel to assess the mental conditions of the believed to be Indian prisoners.

At the exchange, the Indian government reaffirmed its priority towards all humanitarian matters, including those pertaining to prisoners and fishermen in both countries. In view of the COVID 19 pandemic, the Indian government requested the Pakistan government to ensure the safety, security, and welfare of all Indians and believed- to-be Indian civil prisoners and fishermen.

India Delivers Humanitarian Assistance & Disaster Relief Support to Fiji after Tropical Cyclone Yasa

The Fiji islands were hit by a category 5 Tropical Cyclone Yasa in December. The Cyclone caused massive damage to the islands. In light of this natural calamity, the Indian government decided to provide humanitarian assistance through material aid. The relied material provided by the Indian government included shelter and hygiene kits, the government additionally also agreed to provide immediate assistance to the cyclone-affected communities.

A massive undertaking of this nature was possible owing to the work carried out by the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and were airlifted to the Fiji Islands, with the help of Air India and the Fiji Islands, through Sydney, Australia. India stood by Fiji during times of crisis and devastation, as this was not the first time that India provided the country assistance. Back in 2016, India was the leading nation to undertake humanitarian work on the islands following Tropical Cyclone Winston in 2016. India’s actions speak of its commitment to provide Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief support to friendly Foreign Countries as a first responder. India’s leadership role in the Indo-Pacific is in line with the Indo-Pacific Oceans initiative announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2019.

Telephone Conversation between Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and Prime Minister of UK The Rt Hon Boris Johnson

The Indian Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi conducted a telephone conversation with the British Prime Minister, The Rt Hon Boris Johnson. Mr. Johnson appreciated the Indian government’s invitation to the Republic Day, but regretted his inability to attend, given the changed COVID 19 context in the UK.

The leaders reviewed ongoing cooperation between the two countries. Prime Minister Modi, congratulated Mr. Johnson and his government for achieving the

highest vaccination numbers in Europe. The two leaders agreed to cooperate in the near future to make the COVID 19 vaccines available for the world. Lastly, the heads of state reiterated their shared belief in the potential of the India-UK partnership in the post-Brexit, post-Covid context, and agreed to work towards a comprehensive roadmap for realizing this potential.

Conclusion

Keeping aside the boiling tensions in the United States, we have noted a trend in geopolitical actions, wherein states have adopted a more cooperative attitude. This is particularly true with India, as can be seen through the points that we have covered in the report. In the coming months, it would be interesting to see the nature of the relationship that the Indian government develops with the Biden- Harris administration, and this would affect its policies in the Indo-pacific and the Middle East.

Also Read: INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY REPORT — EDITION #8

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The Iranian regime has considered the United States to be a staunch adversary since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The killing of Fakhrizadeh was the last nail in the coffin. The Iranian leadership faces a perilous conundrum in a precarious environment.

With the recent election of Joe Biden as the forty-sixth president of the United States and Hassan Rouhani’s term drawing to an end in 2021, we must shed light on what the future holds for the adversaries. Recent months have recorded a tremendous increase in hostilities between the two countries. Within this highly complex geopolitical web, Iran though cornered has not lost all hope. There are two significant advantages that the regime enjoys in the region. There exists a general understanding in the Gulf that U.S allies, which includes Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, do not have the capacity to engage with Iran in a full out conflagration. The second advantage that Iran enjoys is its regional proxy networks.

The Iranian regime has aimed at executing a one state, two systems formula for conflict-ridden states. Through this strategy, Tehran does not wish to rebuild institutions in accordance with international convention, instead chooses an approach centred around a host of armed non-state actors, that help the regime establish networks and institutions that parallel national institutions. The presence of weak national institutions provides the regime with the opportunity to subjugate governing structures and political systems. With the election of Joe Biden to the Presidency of the United States, there is renewed optimism that real diplomacy and engagement will dictate relations between the US and Iran, as compared to wishful demands for Iran’s total capitulation.

The last four years under the Trump Administration has marked the most contentious period in US-Iran history since the 1980s. The fragile state of relations between the US and Iran is clear by the fact that the two countries have been on the brink of war twice. The first being in the aftermath of Iran shooting down a US drone in 2019 and the second being the start of 2020 when the US orchestrated the assassination of the Quads Force commander Qasem Soleimani. The situation under the Biden administration might be expected to take a veritable turn, as there could be a substantial reduction in tensions by easing sanctions on the Iranian economy, and a return to an approach involving multilateral diplomacy that initially led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015. But the question still remains, if the Biden White House can draw its European Allies-Britain, France, and Germany to rebuild a coalition, of a similar nature as seen during the Obama era.

However, there exist several hurdles in this entire process of renewed diplomacy that the Biden administration may or may not adopt towards the Iranian Regime. The first such obstacle that the United States faces is the lack of time. Iran is due to have its presidential elections in 2021, which would in all probability see Housan Rouhani step down. The Presidential election may act as a thorn for the United States government as there has been a substantial weakening of the pragmatic forces within the Iranian polity. According to Iranian-American scholar Mohamad Tabbar, Iranian politics has undergone a tectonic shift, which has resulted in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps assuming the leadership of this change. The Iranian military is also preparing for the upcoming presidential elections and a veteran of the IRGC is likely to take over the executive branch. These perceived changes within the Iranian political structure gives the Biden White House, approximately six months to deal with and straighten out US’s relations with Iran. The Biden Administration is predicted to be faced with surmounting pressure from its allies in the Middle-Eastern Region, this opposition to US engagement with Iran is a result of the growing concern that this would lead to a broader rapprochement between Iran and the US, which could diminish the importance of American allies to Washington D.C.

Another significant challenge faced by the Biden administration will be shoring up support for the JCPOA within the country itself. The JCPOA has always faced tough criticism in Congress, members of the two houses never warmed up to the idea of an agreement with the Iranian regime. The biggest point of contention for parties and other actors in American politics has been varying expectations. Many believe that Iran should not be permitted to have a nuclear civil program, while many are of the opinion that the country needs to change its behaviour in the regime before a revised deal can be entered. Some believed that the provisions of the original JCPOA focused solely on the short term, and felt that it was necessary to tie down Iran’s nuclear ambitions in the long run. Getting Congressional support for a revised JCPOA is not going to be a cakewalk. More importantly, entering into a revised agreement with Iran, Biden will have to ensure that both Iran and the United States will be able to uphold the provisions without any margin of error.

Lastly, American relations with Iran rely a great deal on the other parties that were originally a part of the JCPOA. This includes the “P=5+1”, that is Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany. Since the P-5 and Germany are all signatories to the JCPOA, the deal belongs to all of them. This essentially means that it is vital the United States can get each and every member on board with the revised provisions of a new agreement with Iran. However, this process of gaining support from European partners might be significantly more strenuous as compared to the last time, the countries agreed to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. This is mainly a result of a series of changes on the geopolitical stage. The U.K has now left the European Union, with the achievement of a trade deal. The Russians on the other hand have gotten more assertive. Whereas China seems to be at loggerheads with the Americans over its increasing presence in the Indo-Pacific.

Having assessed the current situation, it is evident that Iranians are relieved to have survived the last four years under Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure campaign”, and there exists a glimmer of hope that Biden’s election represents the opening of a new chapter. This, however, does not mean that Iran will be ready to compromise on America’s insistence. The regime will expect a revived JCPOA that recognizes the economic damage that has been caused over the past four years. There seems to be appearing a rift between the Iranian moderates and the hardliners. Amidst this confusion, it would be interesting to see how an agreement, if there is one, influences the Iranian Presidential elections. Moreover, in the event of a failure to achieve an agreement before the 2021 election, it would be difficult to ascertain the effect this might have on the two countries, and how the Biden White House would handle the Iranian Regime and what would be future of US-Iran relations.

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There is no denying the fact that the United Kingdom had a significant impact on the European Union’s Foreign Policy. Brexit, in terms of the Middle East, the UK has shared the same concerns as the leadership in Brussels. This has included securing the flow of oil, ensuring non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and combating radical groups. However, cooperation with continental Europe has not always been the UK’s top priority when it came to Foreign Policy. As seen most notably in 2003 when the British government, under Labour Prime Minister joined the US-led coalition in invading Iraq, abasing strong criticism from Germany and France. To analyze Great Britain’s withdrawal from the confederacy, we look at three specific effects.

EU’s Loss of Power — Brexit & Middle East

We have already established the centrality of the British in the European Union’s economic development, foreign policies, and trade activities. Given the UK’s heightened power with the confederation, Brexit has not only left a gaping wound within the EU but has also shown the fragility of the union. Cracks within the European Union are so evident that political experts and heads of state, have entertained the possibility that the confederation may eventually break down completely. Since the Brexit referendum, there have been various right-wing discussions across European countries. The most glaring example of this is Poland. There has been a set of disagreements between the Polish government and the European Commission over contentious judiciary reforms.

The seriousness of the disagreements between the two entities is reflected through the words of the European Council President Donald Tusk who said, “The Matter is dramatically serious. The risk is deadly serious. Polexit is possible.” A similar situation of contention has developed between Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Hungarian right-wing government, which has been at odds with the EU, ever since the union voted overwhelmingly to label Orban’s government as a “systemic threat to the rule of law”. Given the current state of the Union, a weaker and inward-looking Europe is predicted to be less involved in the Middle East. The nature of Europe’s dealings with actors in the Middle East will significantly be altered as it strikes to bargain with authoritarian figures in maintaining border security and stability while paying lip service to its values and ideals. In terms of seeing the actual effects of Europe’s or the UK’s dealings with the states of the Middle East, post-Brexit, it will be interesting to see if the EU still enjoys its power to promote its values of the rule of law and democracy, given the significant erosion in soft power after the Brexit.

UK’s Interventionist Policy

The second aspect that we focus on is the prediction that the United Kingdom may adopt an interventionist policy following Brexit — Even though, in regards to the Middle East, historically the UK has followed an independent foreign policy. Breaking away from the European Union, grants the country freedom from its regional commitments to mainland Europe and could lead to a more pragmatic and self-interested approach to its dealing with Middle Eastern states.

With the UK adopting a more selective role in the region, it is expected that the country will pursue short term goals over long term goals. This might include its interests in fighting terrorism and promoting UK business, rather than focusing on establishing a peace process in states like Syria. This however does not mean that the British will overlook the peace process completely. Being an important stakeholder in the Middle East Peace Process is vital for the country to maintain its relevance and influence in the region. If anything, a post-Brexit future may be the most ideal time for Britain to assert itself in the Middle East region, especially as the EU could be further weakened by Britain’s future departure and its internal problems. In terms of the business expansion in the Middle East, the Global Risk insight has predicted that the country will extensively focus on the Gulf region, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Regional and International Actors

Given the probability of the EU adopting a more inward-looking policy and the UK following a more self-interested pattern in its interactions with Middle Eastern Actors, there is a possibility that this could result in a greater role for global powers such as China, to develop strategic partnerships and political alliances with the countries in the region. There could also be an increased role of regional actors in combating security dilemmas and economic issues through the involvement of the Gulf Cooperation Council. In terms of the Council, the GRI has predicted that blocks such as the GCC will step-in to essentially develop security and economic frameworks to address regional issues. However, this seems a bit too idealistic given the current political issues the Middle East is plagued with, and the splintering of various member states into their network groups, such as the Saudi-Emirati Coordination Council.

Conclusion

From our discussion on the effects of Brexit, it is clear that the process has not only redefined relations between the Middle East, the United Kingdom and the European Union and reshuffled the intentional economy, but also has the potential of significantly altering Europe’s and the UK’s relations individually with other international actors. There exists tremendous insecurity and anxiety in markets around the world, as experts stand by to see the effects of these changes. A great amount of diffidence can be felt in the case of both the EU and the UK, as both remain unsure of how Joe Biden, the President-elect of the United States of America might react to the current situation. Had the Brexit deal gone through under Trump we could have expected him to adopt a more pro-British stance, but with Biden, the ball can be in anyone’s court. Only time will truly tell.

Featured Image: AFP/Getty Images

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India-Russia consultation on UNSC issues

A delegation from the Indian Republic, being led by Shri Vikas Swarup, from the Ministry of External Affairs, met with a delegation being led by Mr. Sergey Vasilyevich Vershinin, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. The consultations focused on India’s acceptance of the non-permanent seat of the United Nations Security Council. The Russian side appreciated India taking its place within the family of nations. Both sides focused on the agenda for the 2021-22 tenure. The Indian delegation along with emphasizing its commitment to deepen cooperation on counter-terrorism at multilateral platforms apprised the Russian delegation on its priorities. Lastly, the two countries decided to work closely together, given the common challenges faced and in keeping with their long-standing Special and Strategic Privileged Partnerships.

Unwarranted references to India in resolutions adopted by the Organisation of the Islamic Conference

On the 29th of November, the Ministry of External Affairs released a statement rejecting the references made to the Republic of India in the recent resolutions adopted by the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) at the 47th CFM session in Niamey, Republic of Niger. The ministry reinstated its belief that the Organisation for Islamic Conference has no locus standi in matters pertaining to domestic governance of the country, which also includes the highly volatile region of Jammu and Kashmir which the current government believes to be an integral and inalienable part of India. India expressed its contempt at the fact that the organization was being used by a country that itself has been under the spotlight numerous times in the past for religious tolerance, radicalism, and prosecution of minorities. The country finally delivered an ultimatum of sorts by suggesting that the Organisation for Islamic Conference refrain from making such unwarranted and factually incorrect references to India.

India- United Kingdom Dialogue

The Prime Minister of India, Shri Narendra Modi spoke to His Excellency Mr. Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on the 27th of November. The two leaders started their consultation by shedding light on the current situation in regards to COVID 19 in their specific countries and used the opportunity to promise cooperation between India and the UK in the area of vaccine development and manufacturing. The two leaders explored the possibility of further strengthening relations between the two countries, in areas related to trade and investment, scientific research, mobility of students and professionals, and defense and security. The two sides recalled their commitment to platforms like the International Solar Alliance and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure while agreeing that delegations from both countries should work towards creating a roadmap for the India-UK partnership.

India commitments at Afghanistan Conference 2020

The Afghanistan Conference, organized in Geneva, co-hosted by the United Nations, The government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, and the government of Finland, saw the participation of an Indian delegation, been led by S. Jaishankar. The External Affairs Minister announced at the conference that India had just concluded with Afghanistan an agreement for the construction of the Shatoot dam, which would provide safe drinking water to 2 million residents of Kabul city. India had earlier built the 202-km Phul-e-Khumri transmission line that provided

electricity to Kabul city. The Ministry of External Affairs recently also announced the launch of Phase-IV of the High Impact Community Development Projects in Afghanistan, which envisages more than 100 projects worth US$ 80 million that India would undertake in Afghanistan. In his statement, Jaishankar emphasized India’s long term commitment to the development of Afghanistan and the benefit of its people as a contiguous neighbour and strategic partner. The delegation also highlighted India’s efforts to provide alternate connectivity through Chabahar port and a dedicated Air Freight Corridor between India and Afghanistan. Lastly, Jaishankar voiced his concerns in regards to the increasing level of violence in Afghanistan and reiterated India’s call for an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire.

India-EU consultation on disarmament and non-proliferation

The European Union and India held the sixth round of consultations on disarmament and non-proliferation. The consultation saw the sides exchange vital information on areas of nuclear, chemical, biological disarmament and non-proliferation, outer space security issues, strategic stability. Environment and other developments of mutual interest. The main aim of the consultations was to enhance mutual understanding and appreciation between India and the EU on international security issues.

4th NSA Level Meeting on Trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation

The Indian National Security Advisor Shri Ajit Doval, visited Colombo to participate in the 4th NSA Level Meeting on Trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation. The meeting previously had been held in the Maldives in 2011, Sri Lanka in 2013, and India in 2014. The NSA level meetings have served as a platform for cooperation among Indian Ocean countries. Apart from the Defence Secretary of Sri Lanka and NSA Shri Ajit Doval from India, Defence Minister H.E. Mariya Didi will also participate in the meeting representing the Maldives. The meeting will provide an opportunity for discussion on issues pertaining to cooperation in maritime security in the Indian Ocean region. On the sidelines of the Trilateral Meeting, NSA is also expected to have other high-level bilateral engagements.

Bahrain, UAE, and Seychelles

External Affairs Minister, Dr. S.Jaishankar undertook a visit to Bahrain, UAE, and Seychelles from the 24th to the 29th of November, during which he met his counterparts and the leaders of the countries. Jaishankar’s visit to Bahrain is his first to the country since he took on the role as External Affairs Minister of India. Jaishakar used the opportunity to convey condolences on behalf of the Government of India and the people of India to the Bahrininin leadership on the demise of Prime Minister HH Prince Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa. The Minister will hold talks with the Bahrain leadership on bilateral issues as well as regional and international issues of mutual interest.

The External Affairs Minister visited the United Arab Emirates next, during which he met the Foreign Minister of UAE, HH Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan. During the interaction between the two leaders, they focused on taking forward the excellent cooperation between Indian and the United Arab Emirates under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The meeting reached a productive outcome as the two leaders were able to discuss ways in which Indian workers could resume their jobs in the UAE, as more than 3 million Indians live and work in the country. India and the UAE have maintained close contact during the pandemic. Prime Minister Modi has spoken to the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi HH Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during the pandemic. The two heads of state also co-chaired the India-UAEJoint Commission Meeting in September 2020.

Lastly, Jaishankar visited the Republic of Seychelles on the 27th and the 28th of November 2020. The Foreign Affairs Minister met with the newly elected President, H.E. MR. Wavel Ramkalawan to present greetings of Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, and discussed with him what the priorities for the Indian government are and focused on exploring new areas and avenues for strengthening India-Seychelles bilateral relations.

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Existing Turmoil in Lebanon

“It’s an economic crisis, a financial crisis, a political crisis, a health crisis, and now this horrible explosion,” said Tamara Alrifai, the spokesperson for UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East.

The Beirut explosion is another nail in the coffin of Lebanon which is currently in the depths of several ongoing crises since 2019.

Lebanon experienced the biggest blow to its stability in October 2019 when the Lebanese pound severely depreciated by 75% of its official value on the black market and is now trading at nearly 9,000 to the dollar in comparison to the official peg of 1,507.5 to the dollar.

The currency devaluation poses a serious problem in an import-dependent country like Lebanon because imports have become extremely costly and people have to sell their personal belongings to be able to afford even the necessities like milk and bread. It has also led to the shutting down of several businesses. Lebanon’s public debt-to-gross domestic product has been the third highest in the world. About one-third of the country’s population is below the poverty line and the economy experiences an unemployment rate of  25% (source).

There had been massive protests all across the country since October on account of the people not receiving basic amenities promised by the government. There have been a series of blackouts, some lasting more than 22 hours, due to shortage of oil and diesel. The political elite of the country had been pushing the country towards its doom while benefitting from the country’s reserves by their corrupt practices. The Lebanese economy has been hit by hyperinflation on account of economic mismanagement by the government. The financing of huge fiscal deficits of the government by the Central Bank due to the inability of taxes and other techniques to generate sufficient revenue to meet the government expenditure has contributed a great deal to the ongoing hyperinflation.

This, along with Lebanon defaulting on its foreign debt, for the first time, in March goes a long way to show the incompetence of the government and its policies. The International Monetary Fund, on being asked for a financial rescue package and restoration of confidence by Prime Minister Hassan Diab, has refused any help unless the government provides a proper plan to revive the economy and shows initiative to combat existing corruption.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has said that there is no near scope for a breakthrough in negotiations and there is uncertainty regarding the capability of the government to implement reforms and bring the economy back to its growth path the country despite having a strong entrepreneurial culture in the past and taking the initiative to host Palestinian and Syrian refugees, thus, easing a humanitarian crisis.
The COVID-19 breakout and synchronized worldwide lockdowns have further contributed to the sharp economic decline of Lebanon and have “exposed the inadequacies of Lebanon’s social-welfare system”

Impact of the Explosion

The double-blast of 4th August will have grave consequences on the already falling economy of Lebanon. Beirut, the largest port in Lebanon was completely destroyed and will remain dysfunctional unless urgent repairs are made which could take up to several weeks or months. Domestic production in Lebanon accounts for only 10% of the country’s consumption. For a nation which is highly dependent on imports for most of its vital consumer goods, the destruction of the Beirut port, which was an entry point for imports to “feed a nation of more than 6 million people”, will lead to an epic downfall of the Lebanese economy and cause adversities in the supply chain. The nearest port of Lebanon, Tripoli, will not prove to be of much use, being one-third of Beirut’s size. Thus, even if the imports were shifted to arrive at Tripoli, they will not be able to accommodate the additional cargo volumes and there will be congestion. 

Beirut’s main grand silo at the port which was the largest grain storage facility in all of Lebanon was completely destroyed by the blast, leaving the country with barely less than a month’s grain reserves. Although the economy minister of Lebanon has said that the inventory of bread and flour is sufficient to avoid a crisis, one can never fully give up on the possibility of a supply chain shock, especially in an economy like Lebanon’s. Hani Bohsali, head of the importers’ syndicate, said, “We fear there will be a huge supply chain problem unless there is an international consensus to save us.” The silo stored around 85% of the country’s cereal, thus, experts are predicting an upcoming food shortage despite the assurance by the government.

Beirut’s main grand silo at the port which was the largest grain storage facility in all of Lebanon was completely destroyed by the blast, leaving the country with barely less than a month’s grain reserves. Although the economy minister of Lebanon has said that the inventory of bread and flour is sufficient to avoid a crisis, one can never fully give up on the possibility of a supply chain shock, especially in an economy like Lebanon’s. Hani Bohsali, head of the importers’ syndicate, said, “We fear there will be a huge supply chain problem unless there is an international consensus to save us.” The silo stored around 85% of the country’s cereal, thus, experts are predicting an upcoming food shortage despite the assurance by the government.

The blast has left nearly 300,000 people homeless. It has led to massive infrastructural damage which would take ages to fix. More importantly, even if the time required to rebuild the city is not taken into consideration for the moment, the repairs would cost the government several billions of dollars, gathering which is an impossible task considering the worldwide reputation and negative credit-worthiness of the nation owing to the prevailing corruption.

Owing to the explosion, several primary healthcare centres and hospitals have been so damaged that they cannot admit patients anymore. However, the number of people requiring immediate physical aid has increased, both, due to the blast and due to a hike in COVID-19 cases owing to the chaos amidst the emergency. The World Health Organization has reported that the explosion led to the destruction of 17 containers filled with hundreds of thousands of medical supplies and protective instruments to combat the deadly virus leading to an urgent need for supplies in that region. There is also the social cost of the explosion which has released harmful fumes in the environment, polluting it and bringing about the danger of genetic breathing disorders for years to come.

The explosion further shows the inadequacy of the government as it did not deal with such a large shipment of explosives, despite repeated warnings, and chose to ignore the matter since 2013. This incident will reignite the civil protests, which had been at bay due to the coronavirus spread, thus causing additional turmoil in the country.

The impact of the explosion can lead to further depreciation of the Lebanese pound, thus, rendering imports costlier than before and putting the economy in a recessionary spiral that could take ages to recover from unless a massive boost is given to the economy via international consensus and support.

Conclusion

The ongoing consequences of the economic crisis will hinder the economy’s ability to bounce back from the 2020 blast.^[14] Despite immediate recovery measures being taken by several international agencies and governments to deal with the emergency at hand and to help provide relief to and boost the well-being of the people in need, the future of Lebanon does not seem to be very promising. Unless the Lebanese politicians realise the severity of the situation, acknowledge their mistakes and present a united front to help the people, the future of Lebanon looks bleak. The resilience of the public will not be enough to come out of this disaster unless backed by government policies. The explosion has led to the complete loss of faith of the people in their administrative bodies and long-term situations will not improve unless fundamental reforms are brought about in the policies of the nation and implemented for the betterment of the people. 

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Later, the trade between Arabian peninsula and India was dominated by Arab traders from Oman and yamen. At the same time, Indian ocean trade between East Africa, middle east and India were dominated by Oman. Trade between Arabia and India became the backbone of Arabian peninsula by the end of the first millennium CE. 

Interestingly, Arabia had less to export to India and most of the goods flowed from India to Arabia. Expect, the pearl industry which was an important export until the discovery of oil in the Gulf region. In places like Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Dubai, pearl diving was a way of life. 

Relations between India and the Gulf region became stronger during the British raj when in addition to an economic component a military component was acquired by them. British had begun to dominate the subcontinent, by the mid 19th century, the control and influence exercised by them on Arab territory came as a result of their need to protect the sea lanes. The British conquered Aden in 1839, which was administered as a province of British India. A protectorate was established by the British in Abu Dhabi in the year 1820 and later on over Dubai, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and other states that would later form the United Arab States (UAE). The British affairs of Arab were managed by British officials in India and were garrisoned on British command by Indian soldiers. 

The relationship between India and the Gulf region began to change and reverse with the independence of India and the discovery of oil in the Gulf region. The balance of trade began to shift as a result of exporting oil. Today, 80% of oil is exported in India from the region and independent India failed to te the gulf economically as British India did. Despite the economic turn faced by India, it continued to maintain important relations with the region relative to others. By the 21st century, India’s export to the gulf region were more than the European Union. I.e. In the financial year 2012-13, India’s export to GCC stood at $51 billion according to financial times. About 15% of exports in India go to the Gulf. India was also the largest trading partner of Dubai until china overtook it in 2013. The strong relation between the two is maintained even today. 

INDIAN IMMIGRANTS AND THE GULF

India is the top recipient of remittances alongside being the largest country of international migrants. Since the ‘oil boom’ from the 1970s, Indian migrants to the gulf became a valuable source of income and backbone of economies for high-migration states through remittance transfer. During this period, the migrants have largely contributed to the economic development of the gulf region. 

However, In recent years’ condemnation of treatment provided to domestic expatriate workers and blue-collar in the region has cast the migration in a less favourable light, demanding greater attention from the government of India to worker welfare and diaspora issues. Regardless of this, complaints of abuse, hardship and exploitation persist.
The return of workers has increased and the outflow of migrants has slackened due to fluctuation in the oil market, economical slowdown and changing gulf policies. The coronavirus pandemic too clouds the future of gulf-India migration relations, which would be a challenge for the government of India as well as the workers and their families dependent on them due to healthcare and livelihood challenges that they would have to face. 

The usual return to jobs after the travel ban ends is far from assured. Return of labours and New jobs depend upon the economic capacity of the gulf. Indian migrants who would return to gulf would be required to present their medical certificates as per the mandate of Kuwait authorities. However, once the pandemic ends, Gulf states could impel sweeping wide-ranging departures. A more likely scenario is an adjustment of reliance on foreign workers followed by a cut in government contracting and levying of high employer and visa fees. Either would give a blow to the economy of India as well as to the families and communities of people who have long served the gulf states as a lifeline.

KUWAIT EXPAT QUOTA  BILL

Among the large number of migrant workers that India sends to the world, a total of 9 million Indian migrants are employed in the Gulf region. USD 82 billion in form of remittance were received by India during 2019 as per world bank report. Due to the pandemic, many workers are left in a vulnerable condition as the countries of destination are failing to provide new economic opportunities because of which the migrant workers are returning to India. Kuwait’s total population stands at 4.3 million, out of which 3 million are migrant labours among which over a million belong to India. As a result of the rising pressure over the economies, Kuwait became the first among the GCC countries to introduce a bill aiming to deport migrant workers from the country. During the first week of July, Kuwait decides to roll out a bill to reduce the number of foreigners in the country as proposed by the PM. 

 According to the new ex-pat quota bill approved by the Kuwait authorities on reducing the number of foreign labourers in the Gulf region, eight lakh Indians can be forced to leave their jobs and return to India. The legal and legislative committee of the national assembly has determined that the bill is constitutional. The bill allows a maximum of 15% Indians in the region, while the Indian community consists of 1.45 million of its population making it the largest ex-pat community in Gulf. Due to the pandemic and a slump in oil prices, government and the lawmakers call for a reduction in the number of ex-pat community in the country. Kuwait remains the largest source of remittances for India, the country received nearly $4.8 billion from Kuwait as remittances in the year 2018. Most of the COVID positive cases in Kuwait come from foreigners as the disease spreads between the migrants living in overcrowded housing. 

IMPACTS OF THE NEW BILL

Some important facts on both sides- India and Kuwait need to be considered at this point. Now that the Kuwait government is planning on sending back foreign workforce, the authorities would need to perform a rain-check and see if the local population have the requisite skills and knowledge to perform the jobs. These semi-skilled work involves low pay and therefore attracts migrant workforce, the willingness of the local community to take up the jobs would impact the market of Kuwait. 

While the Indian government has launched SWADES (Skilled Workers Arrival Database for Employment Support) to record data relating to skills of migrant workers returning to India, which can be used by recruiters to appoint and use workers in India. However, the current market is already suffering from the pandemic and a considerable number of people have lost their jobs, in such situation it won’t be easy to reintegrate these returnee workers in the domestic market. Many of the labourers are returning without getting paid what was due to them which would be another roadblock in the reintegration efforts. These workers would join the people who have returned through Vande Bharat mission and are looking for jobs in the country. Return migrants should be included in the employment and social development programs offered by central and state governments irrespective of where they come from. A number of these people might consider re-immigrating, for this, the Indian government must check the markets and deport migrants to that area where demand is high. 

CONCLUSION

At this point, India needs to strengthen its ties concerning migrant labours with Kuwait and other GCC countries, where most of the Indian workforce resides. While maintaining bilateral ties is important, a roadmap needs to be prepared for the development of international migration policy for labours which would take into consideration both returnees and migrant workers from the country. In a regional meeting under the aegis of MEA (ministry of external affairs) organised by India together with Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, the strengthening of bilateral relations during this times to protect migrants workers was deemed to be a priority, which was supported by the International Labour Organisation (ILO). 

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