Agriculture

Agriculture is one of the top sectors in Africa with immense growth potential. The sector contributes to over 15% of Africa’s GDP and has shown a good growth rate due to prior government policies that prioritise the sector to retain its sustainability and competitiveness. The top-earning agricultural products are coffee, cocoa, maize and wheat with Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia and Uganda as the top producers.

Large areas of arable land, increasing use of technology, massive youth dividend, increasing government support and a large demand base make agriculture an attractive sector for investment despite the problem of erratic rainfall pattern in some places.

By the year 2050, it has been predicted that Africa’s population will almost double with a growth rate of 2.7% per annum. To meet the growing needs of the population, substantial investment from its global peers is absolutely necessary. That will also help the sector to grow and enhance its status as a global competitor, help in economic diversification and also mitigate the prominent problems of undernourishment, poverty and hunger that exist in the region.

Manufacturing Sector

Africa possesses an abundance of raw materials that can be easily turned to manufactured products for greater reliance on local products and increased exports of the same. The top three manufacturers in Africa are Egypt, South Africa and Morocco.

The growth of manufacturing can greatly drive economic growth and development in Africa. However, the sector faces challenges like lack of skilled-workforce, infrastructure gaps including low power supply and inadequate regulatory measures to address the prominent challenges. The import to export ratio of manufactured products in Africa is very high as Africa mostly exports unprocessed commodities. The growing manufacturing sector is making great advances in this aspect. It has already increased the total export goods from 18.7% in 2012 to 35.6% in 2017 and caused a significant decrease in imports implying greater importance to domestically manufactured products.

There has also been a shift in the focus of FDI projects from the dominant extractive industry to consumer-facing industries like retail, technology, media, etc. This trend is expected to continue in the near future.

Retail Sector

The African Development Bank is expecting the current 350-million-strong middle class to grow to under one billion by 2040. The growing middle-class demography is contributing to the growth and modernization of the retail sector which is greatly devoid of supply competition and requires investment to meet the growing consumer base. The market for essential goods constitutes the majority of consumer spending owing to the low-income levels in the economy and as the income-level status is not expected to undergo a drastic change in the recent future, the comparatively smaller market for luxury products will have a low growth rate.

As a large amount of consumer spending in Africa taking place in informal markets, due to the absence of prominent formal retail presence, is unaccounted for, Africa is projected as an economy with low household retail-spending despite that not being the case.

“The Brookings Institute’s latest analysis on trends of the African consumer market shows that consumer expenditure has grown at a compound annual rate of 3.9% since 2010 and reached US$1.4 trillion in 2015. This figure is expected to increase to US$2.5 trillion by 2030.”

There are several cyclical challenges related to the retail sector, like low GDP growth, high inflation, dwindling credit extension. The challenges can be used as opportunities to enhance the growth of the sector by focusing on the development of the retail infrastructure and modern logistics spaces to satiate the demand for high-quality space from retailers looking to expand in Africa.

Finance

Finance is one of the top sectors in Africa which regulates the funding of all the other sectors. Financial innovation guarantees the diversification of banking sector services and facilitates the incorporation of capital market instruments to reduce investment risk.

Rwanda, The Gambia and Senegal have shown massive progress in financial system rankings. However, there has been an overall decline in Africa’s global financial standing from 2017 – 2018 due to a fall in the pace of reform of this sector.

The impact investing industry has shown substantial growth and is quite relevant as several countries in Africa lie below the global average score for Human Development (0.8) with declining levels of official assistance. The industry has made an abundant impact across a wide range of sectors like Healthcare, Agriculture, Housing, Education and others. This provides ample opportunities for investment in several initiatives which will reap both financial and environmental returns.

Some of the prominent threats to this sector include underdeveloped market infrastructure due to limited funding, difficulty in gathering viable investment to meet financial and social targets, limited capital supply, unclear regulatory environment, inconsistent impact-measures and so on. These might prove to be a disincentive to many and hinder their investments. However, a far-sighted investor might implement innovative measures to meet the pending gaps and turn these challenges into opportunities to optimise social and environmental investments.

Infrastructure

Infrastructural inadequacy causes a huge hindrance to investment and growth in all sectors of Africa. There is a wide gap between the infrastructure needs of the continent and the amount being spent on fulfilling the need. There is an urgent need to bridge the gap through sufficient investment to meet the growing needs of Africa.

In countries like East Africa, Ethiopia and Tanzania, infrastructure investments in the form of new roads, energy support, transportation networks and others have led to guaranteed growth and transformation of the prevailing sectors. Construction has been primarily responsible for high economic expansion in Egypt. Infrastructural developments lead to employment generation via contractors, boosting aggregate demand. Investment in infrastructure by foreign players can prove to be very beneficial as it would provide the required sophistication to the local industry by supplying goods needed for large projects.

Real estate has evolved significantly, providing higher returns on investments, thus, becoming increasingly attractive to potential investors. Despite having good growth potential, real estate has certain risks attached to it like complex legal considerations, such as property ownership rights, social instability resulting from inequality, and others. However, the growth drivers like sustained high demand driven by urbanisation, improved capital regulation, technological advancements in banking leading to a boost in investment rates, and expected GDP growth supporting the demand for housing easily overshadow the challenges.

Conclusion

For many years, Africa’s growth potential has been understated and misunderstood. It has been treated as a non-friendly investment destination due to the several challenges posed. However, there has been a worldwide lack of understanding of the ease of converting the insurmountable challenges to opportunities. Africa’s growing population and the prevailing problem of excess demand need to be met via increased investment and innovation which will, in turn, lead to increased employment, decreased poverty and increased infrastructural development. Thus, despite Africa’s slowing global growth, if the prevailing challenges are addressed adequately, growth is inevitable.

The post INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN AFRICA: AN OVERVIEW appeared first on WISER WORLD.

Following the PM’s address, our Finance Minister, Dr. Nirmala Sitharaman, through a set of conferences, laid out the specifics of the package divided into 5 tranches. This article seeks to explore the details, benefits and drawbacks of the same. 

The Package in Details

Some of the Key Highlights of the Package for various sectors in several tranches have been provided below:

EARLIER MEASURES 

The “Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana” provided the following:  

• Foodgrains and gas cylinders to the needy for three months.
• ₹500 to women Jan Dhan account holders for three months.
• Relief to construction workers via a Welfare Fund.
• Insurance cover to health workers.
• District Mineral Fund to facilitate greater medical testing.
• Increased minimum daily wage rate 
• An increased limit of collateral-free loans for Women Self Help Groups.

Apart from the aforementioned activities, the Indian government has also provided relaxation in Statutory and Compliance matters such as extending the last date for Income Tax Returns and filing GST returns, allowing for 24*7 customs clearance till 30th June 2020, and others. It has also sanctioned Rs. 15,000 crores for Emergency Health Response Package and issued pending income-tax returns up to Rs. 5 lakhs.

RBI’s Monetary Measures:

• Reducing Cash Reserve Ratios.
• Providing Targeted Long Term Repo Operations for fresh deployment in investment-grade bonds, commercial paper, and non-convertible debentures. 
• Increasing banks’ borrowing-limit under the Marginal Standing Facility.
• Special refinance facilities for NABARD, SIDBI and the NHB at policy repo rate.
• 3 months of moratorium on payment of all installments and interest on working capital facilities.

MSMEs AND OTHER BUSINESSES

• Availability of collateral-free, automatic loans with 4-year tenure.
• 25% reduction in the rate of Tax Deduction at Source (TDS) and Tax Collection at Source (TCS) 
• Equity infusion and Equity Support for MSMEs.
• Providing a new definition of MSMEs with additional turnover criteria to incentivise them to grow.
• Amendments of General Financial Rules to disallow Global tenders up to Rs.200 crores.
• Extension of the due date of all income-tax return for FY 2019-20.

AGRICULTURE^[3]

• Additional Emergency Working Capital for farmers through NABARD
• Provision of concessional credit to PM-KISAN beneficiaries.
• Promotion of ‘Vocal for Local with Global outreach’ vision via schemes formalising Micro Food Enterprises.
• Facilitating risk mitigation, assured returns and quality standardisation for farmers.
• Implementation of schemes for sustainable development of marine and inland fisheries, development of herbal cultivation, animal husbandry and beekeeping.
• Subsidies on transportation and storage.

MIGRANTS, LABOURERS and OTHERS^[4]

• Setting up shelters providing food and water to migrants by utilising  State Disaster Response Fund.
• Launching schemes to provide free food supply and affordable rental accommodation to migrant workers.
• Providing employment opportunities to the urban-poor by mass production of sanitizers and masks.
• Launching a Special Credit Facility for Street Vendors.
• Universalizing the minimum wage right and implementing the statutory concept of National Floor Wage to reduce regional disparity in minimum wages.
• Boosting the housing sector and the middle-income group through the extension of the Credit Linked Subsidy Scheme.

NEW HORIZONS^[5]

• Fast track Investment Clearance through Empowered Group of Secretaries (EGoS)
• Implementing schemes to upgrade industrial infrastructure and bring about beneficial policy reforms.
• Encouraging private sector participation and boosting investment in several sectors, including space activities.
• Facilitating Efficient Airspace Management for Civil Aviation.
• Improve autonomy, accountability and efficiency in Defence Production.
• Implementing a Tariff Policy Reform pertaining to Consumer Rights, Industry Promotion and Sector-Sustainability.

      GOVERNMENT REFORMS^[6]

• Promoting India as one of the easiest business locations by modifying the Ease of Doing Business Reforms relating to easy registration of property, fast disposal of commercial disputes and simpler tax regime. 
• Facilitating Technology-Driven Education via PM eVIDYA programme
• Increasing investments in the Public Health Sector to not only combat the present pandemic but also prepare for future pandemics.
• Supporting State Governments & promoting state-level reforms.
• Modifying policies to allow for the privatization of various sectors, while upholding the prominence of Public Service Enterprises in defined areas. 

Overall Stimulus Provided by the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Package

Problems

The earlier fiscal relief measures along with RBI’s measures constitute ₹9,94,403 crores, which leaves an effective amount of ₹11,02,650 crores. Thus, the immediate fiscal boost announced with such grandeur by the government is quite less than the promised amount because of the inclusion of RBI’s monetary measures, despite both being independent institutions. Direct investment by the government in the form of a boost to the aggregate demand guarantees immediate impetus to the economy, however, that might not be the case with the government’s indirect measures and RBI’s credit easing because the banks, instead of lending, might park the money back with the RBI, thus, rendering its help ineffective. Even if the banks transmit the liquidity measures from RBI to the citizens, the transmission procedure will not be smooth due to the prevailing inefficiency of monetary policy transfers.

The economic package includes a lot of measures spread over 5 tranches. However, there exists the problem of implementing those measures. A classic example is the provision of collateral-free automatic loans to MSMEs. There is a high risk of non-return to banks in such cases unless the businesses end up earning high-profits amidst a global crisis, that is if the MSMEs get the required loans after overcoming the hurdles of meeting the high credit score criteria, bearing high processing costs followed by tedious procedures, and still not receiving the entire amount applied for. 

Conclusion

Both ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan’ and the ‘Make In India Campaign’ attempt to attract Foreign Direct Investment by laying emphasis on the promotion of local products to help with the declining job market. However, this causes a critical problem in a developing country like India which needs to depend on cost-effective imports of several products in which it does not have a comparative advantage and the domestic production of which will lead to increased manufacturing cost, thus, leading to the loss of a competitive edge in the Global Market. Although, Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan does possess an advantage due to the inclusion of agriculture, which had been neglected all this while.

Although the package is very comprehensive and caters to the needs of all people, past history of failures due to the presence of corrupt bureaucracy raises the question of whether the relief package will have its desired effect. However, if the package is properly implemented and people are educated about the schemes through various drives and trained to utilize the benefits available to them, then there exists the possibility of success of the package through economic upliftment of the nation.

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