However, the 2^nd February verdict was enough for the Russians to come out in support of him. Thousands of supporters of Alexei Navalny poured onto the streets and marched towards central Moscow. These protestors clashed with police in body armour who was also armed with staves to control the protest. According to OVD-Info, an independent monitoring group state that over 1,000 protestors were arrested across the country the following day. [3]

It is indeed a controversial decision as Navalny is one of the most prominent Kremlin critics and Vladimir Putin’s foe. It is not the first time that some Kremlin critic is being put behind bars. Mikhail Khodorkovsky [4] and chess world champion Garry Kasparov [5] are some of the people who were forced to leave Russia in fear of their lives for criticising Putin. However, Boris Nemtsov was not that lucky as he was shot dead in Kremlin, 2015. [6] It makes Alexei Navalny the last critic of the Kremlin to be standing alive and on Russian soil.

During the court visit, one could not miss noticing Alexei Navalny’s wife, Yulia. The verdict included the deduction by the judge of 10 months from the originally designated three-and-a-half-year sentence as Alexei Navalny had already spent that duration in house arrest. Yulia stepped out after the court session when Navalny smiled and shrugged his shoulders and yelled: “Don’t be sad! Everything is going to be all right”. [7] She waved back with Navalny’s two lawyers, Vladimir Kobzev and Olga Mikhailova. They have approached the European Court of Human Rights but to no avail. [8] However, all of these come as no news as Alexei Navalny is a nobody but one of the rising figures in Russian politics and a massive challenge to President Vladimir Putin.

Who Is Alexei Navalny?

Alexei Navalny is a lawyer turned activist. He is a very prominent critic of President Putin and his administration. However, to several Russians, he is not just a challenger to President Putin but is instead considered a contender to the leadership position. President Putin is a former KGB colonel who intends to continue controlling Kremlin for a few more decades. On the other hand, Navalny is seen as a revolutionary leader. 

Navalny is a rising figure who has been a symbol of protest against President Putin’s grey bureaucratic hold and his colleagues from KGB in the Kremlin. Navalny is seen as an opponent by several Russian elites. He worked as an organiser for the liberal Yabloko faction in 2007. However, he was kicked out of the party in 2007 for participating in a march with radical nationalists in Moscow. [9] 

He came second in the mayor elections of 2013 with 27% votes, although he alleged that it was due to the authorities’ ballot-rigging. Even though Sergei Sobyanin won the election, it cannot be denied that it was the first official challenge given by Navalny to President Putin. [10] As a result, alleged corruption allegations were put on his to debarred from the 2018 elections. Not just him, even his allies are frequently prevented from holding any office. Now, in the Duma elections that will take place in September 2021, he and his allies want to challenge the United Russia party. [11]

At the same time, Kremlin is getting ready to keep him away from one of the other reasons. Earlier as well, he has been jailed because of his connection to protests. He has also been convicted twice for financial misdeeds, although he claimed that they were politically motivated. Not only that, but he has also had significant eye damage due to a disinfectant thrown onto his face. [12]

How Is Alexei Navalny a Challenge to President Vladimir Putin?

Alexei Navalny gained prominence by using social media to reach out to people regarding matters concerning Russian politics. He makes videos on the Russian elites’ various details that they would like to keep in the dark. Navalny has over 2.5 million Twitter followers and about 6 million YouTube followers. He uses these social media platforms to expose the truth about the sources of the Russian elites’ wealth. One such video is that of President Putin’s secret Black Sea palace. [13] The video has garnered over 110 million views. Several other anti-corruption videos are made by him that tend to hit these Russian elites’ personal lives and big-shot names in Kremlin. [14] Thus, Navalny is no new to raids, lawsuits, threats, and jail stint. 

Alexei Navalny is evident in his objectives if he comes to power- to end corruption by state officials. Rampant state corruption has been one of Putin’s governance highlights, and President Putin is right in the centre of it stashing billions of dollars from strategic enterprises. It led Navalny to become a shareholder activist in 2007. He used his financial knowledge to purchase several shares of state-run firms that have a suspicious background. [15]

He has several foundations based out form other countries to expose the corruption taking place in the Russian power centre. Moreover, he is not a one-person army. Several people are ready to fight this menace in Russia. Vladimir Ashurkov and Leonid Volkov is the director of the London based anti-corruption foundation [16] and is an aide of Navalny in Lithuania. [17] 

So, President Putin has the state machinery in his realm as his tool to keep control over his critics. However, Alexei Navalny uses social media and his dark humour as a tool to keep up with other people. Many have come and gone, but Alexei Navalny is still standing. He has done something that no one could do before- get under President Vladimir Putin’s skin. He has been brave and has stood firm even when put in the worst of situations. President Putin so far, been unable to break him.

That is the reason why Kremlin has been trying to eliminate him for a year with different methods. Jail, lawsuits, raids, threats. Nothing has worked so far. So, the Kremlin decided to use the shadiest method under their belt to silence him once and for all. Last year, Navalny was poisoned in Siberia by an undercover team of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) spy. They had applied “Novichok Nerve Agent” in the internal parts of Navalny’s underpants. It had earlier been used in 2018 on Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia Skripal in Salisbury. [18] However, Alexei Navalny was able to survive due to timely hospital treatment. Navalny was even able to expose the FSB assassins. [19]

With this attempt, the Kremlin finally thought they had got rid of Navalny. Even though he survived, they assumed that he would not return to Russian soil from Berlin, where he was recovering. Nevertheless, Navalny again proved them wrong when he flew back to Moscow on 17^th January. It was seen as a direct challenge to President Putin. It was then he was detained from the passport control at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport within hours of his arrival. [20]

His lawyer Olga Mikhailova told the Echo of Moscow radio station that she could not meet her client. In other words, Navalny was denied legal representation. [21] All of this culminated into street protests in over 100 towns and cities in Russia. [22] From Crimea to Vladivostok on the Pacific, the streets were flooded with supporters. Protestors even gathered in- 50C in Yakutsk to show solidarity with their hero. [23]

International Condemnation of Alexei Navalny’s Arrest

Not just Russians, but there has been an international outcry for human rights violation by both USA and European diplomats and leaders in this case. NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden who is now a Russian citizen, Jack Sullivan, Joe Biden’s incoming national security adviser, and even Mike Pompeo are prominent names who voiced their opinion against the state brutality on Alexei Navalny. Not just them, but even US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and German Foreign Minister, Heiko Maas, have described this act as being “deeply concerning”, “cowardice”, and a “bitter blow” to the rule of law in Russia respectively. [24]

In a video conference with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel made a statement from Berlin- “We consider this expulsion unjustified and think it is another facet of the things that can be seen in Russia at the moment that are pretty far from the rule of law.” [25]

Showing solidarity with Germany, Poland, and Sweden, Macron stated, “I think this was a huge mistake even for Russian stability today.” Sweden’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mats Samuelsson said that “it considers this entirely unjustified, which we have also conveyed to the Russian side”. Stockholm “strongly rejects Russian claims that the diplomat took part in a demonstration in Russia” and “reserves the right to take appropriate response measures,” he said. [26]

Way Ahead

Nonetheless, nothing seems to change the minds of the Russian officials in this case. To make matters worse, Kremlin went ahead with expelling EU diplomats on 5th February. The Russian Foreign Ministry accused diplomats of Sweden and Poland stationed in St. Petersberg and a diplomat of Germany stationed in Moscow of taking part in the protests on 23rd January to show support to Alexei Navalny. all the three diplomats were declared “persona non grata” and were ordered to leave shortly. [27]

These have further worsened the situation and the EU’s possible attempt to re-engage talks with Moscow that EU Foreign Affairs Chief Josep Borrell was spearheading. In retaliation to this, on 9^th  February 2021, Germany, Poland and Sweden on Monday each declared a Russian diplomat in their country “persona non grata.” All the Russian ambassadors were told to leave the country immediately. [28]

Whatever is happening or will happen, one thing is for sure Alexei Navalny did not lose anything from his prison sentencing. Locking up Navalny for a long time is bound to make him a martyr.

In 2013, when he was arrested, a large crowd had gathered that forced the authorities to leave him. Since then, President Putin is stringent on dissent moves like this. Nevertheless, keeping him long now will surely increase the protest and may lead to political instability. If he is released now, he will be a massive challenge in the Duma elections scheduled in September 2021. Either way, it seems like Alexei Navalny’s win and a loss to the “Vladimir, the Underpants Poisoner.” [29]

REFERENCES

[1] The Moscow Times. “As It Happened: Navalny Sentenced to 2 Years and 8 Months in Penal Colony.” The Moscow Times, The Moscow Times, 3 Feb. 2021, www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803.

[2] Times, The Moscow. “Russia to Try Navalny on WWII Veteran Slander Charges.” The Moscow Times, The Moscow Times, 5 Feb. 2021, www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-to-try-navalny-on-wwii-veteran-slander-charges-a72841.

[3] Roth, Andrew. “Alexei Navalny: 1,000 Arrested after Protests over Jailing of Russian Opposition Leader.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 3 Feb. 2021, www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/02/russian-opposition-leader-alexei-navalny-jailed.

[4] “Mikhail Khodorkovsky Freed after Pardon from Vladimir Putin.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 20 Dec. 2013, www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/20/mikhail-khodorkovsky-freed-putin-pardon-russia

[5] Williams, Stuart. “Garry Kasparov Quits Russia.” Mint, 6 June 2013, www.livemint.com/Politics/7iTyaOSRom9xGeF2OmaYUI/Former-chess-champion-Garry-Kasparov-quits-Russia-over-fears.html.

[6] “Who Killed Boris Nemtsov? We Will Never Know.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 3 Mar. 2015, www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/02/boris-nemtsov-never-know-who-killed-moscow-vladimir-putin-russian-opposition.

[7] Feehan , Katie. “Russian Police Raid Navalny’s Offices after Wife of Putin’s Greatest Critic Flees Moscow for Germany.” Daily Mail Online, Associated Newspapers, 12 Feb. 2021, www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9252195/Russian-police-raid-Navalnys-offices-wife-Putins-greatest-critic-flees-Moscow-Germany.html.

[8] Staff, Reuters. “Russia Dismisses European Court of Human Rights’ Call to Free Navalny.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 17 Feb. 2021, www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-politics-navalny-court-release-idUSKBN2AH1XI.

[9] Coalson, Robert. “Is Aleksei Navalny a Liberal or a Nationalist?” The Atlantic, Atlantic Media Company, 29 July 2013, www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/07/is-aleksei-navalny-a-liberal-or-a-nationalist/278186/.

[10] “Alexei Navalny and the 2013 Moscow Mayoral Election | Princeton University Library.” Princeton University, The Trustees of Princeton University, 27 Jan. 2021, library.princeton.edu/news/general/2021-01-27/alexei-navalny-and-2013-moscow-mayoral-election.

[11] “Russian Presidential Election: Alexei Navalny Barred from Competing.” BBC News, BBC, 25 Dec. 2017, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42479909.

[12] Kramer, Andrew E. “Kremlin Critic Aleksei Navalny Says Attack Left Him Mostly Blind in an Eye.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 2 May 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/05/02/world/europe/russia-aleksei-navalny-opposition.html.

[13] Putin’s Palace. History of World’s Largest Bribe. 19 Jan. 2021, www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI.

[14] Don’t Call Him “Dimon”. 2 Mar. 2017, www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrwlk7_GF9g.

[15] Schreck , Carl Schreck. “Russia’s Erin Brockovich: Taking On Corporate Greed.” Time, Time Inc., 9 Mar. 2010, content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1970475,00.html.

[16] AFP . “Alexei Navalny: Russian Opposition Leader Navalny Aides Push EU for New Russia Sanctions: World News – Times of India.” The Times of India, TOI, 9 Feb. 2021, timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/navalny-aides-push-eu-for-new-russia-sanctions/articleshow/80767361.cms.

[17] Welle, Deutsche. “Navalny Ally Leonid Volkov: ‘Our Aim Is to Outsmart Putin’: DW: 15.02.2021.” DW.COM, www.dw.com/en/navalny-ally-leonid-volkov-our-aim-is-to-outsmart-putin/a-56573967.

[18] Harding, Luke. “’A Chain of Stupidity’: the Skripal Case and the Decline of Russia’s Spy Agencies.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 23 June 2020, www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/23/skripal-salisbury-poisoning-decline-of-russia-spy-agencies-gru.

[19] “’Do You Remember the Underwear’s Colour?’ – Navalny’s Call with Duped Spy.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 21 Dec. 2020, www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/what-does-alexei-navalny-say-the-duped-russian-spy-admitted-about-his-poisoning.

[20] “Alexei Navalny Detained at Airport on Return to Russia.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 17 Jan. 2021, www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/17/alexei-navalny-detained-at-airport-on-return-to-russia.

[21] AFP. “Alexei Navalny Lawyer Says Denied Access to Moscow Police Cell.” Hindustan Times, 18 Jan. 2021, www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/alexei-navalny-lawyer-says-denied-access-to-moscow-police-cell-101610962827751.html.

[22] Desk, Sentinel Digital. “The Russian Affair – Sentinelassam.” The Sentinel Assam, The Sentinel Assam, 17 Feb. 2021, www.sentinelassam.com/editorial/the-russian-affair-524975

[23] Troianovski, Anton, and Andrew Higgins. “Pro-Navalny Protests Sweep Russia in Challenge to Putin.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 23 Jan. 2021, www.nytimes.com/2021/01/23/world/europe/russia-protests-navalny.html.

[24] Times, The Moscow. “World Reacts to Navalny’s Arrest.” The Moscow Times, The Moscow Times, 20 Feb. 2021, www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/18/free-navalny-western-leaders-tell-russia-a72637.

[25] Ap. “Relations between EU and Russia Worsen over Navalny Jailing.” The Economic Times, Economic Times, 6 Feb. 2021, economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/relations-between-eu-and-russia-worsen-over-navalny-jailing/articleshow/80717773.cms.

[26] Staff, Reuters. “Russian Court Made ‘Huge Mistake’ in Jailing Navalny -Macron.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 4 Feb. 2021, www.reuters.com/article/us-france-macron-russia-idUSKBN2A42NJ.

[27] PTI. “Relations between EU and Russia Worsen over Navalny Jailing.” The Week, The Week, 14 Dec. 2020, www.theweek.in/wire-updates/international/2021/02/06/fgn49-eu-russia-ld-navalny.html.

[28] Jordans, Frank. “EU Countries Expel Russian Diplomats in Navalny Dispute.” AP NEWS, Associated Press, 8 Feb. 2021, apnews.com/article/eu-countries-expel-russia-diplomats-69e018425fa2d0bc9dde29aa1fad8c60.

[29] Rfe/rl. “’Vladimir The Underpants Poisoner’: Navalny Mocks Putin In Court.” RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, ‘Vladimir The Underpants Poisoner’: Navalny Mocks Putin In Court, 2 Feb. 2021, www.rferl.org/a/russia-navalny-speech/31082857.html.

Featured Image by – Elena Ignatyeva, AFP

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Background of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

The region of Nagorno-Karabakh has for several decades been constantly buffeted by the winds of political instability, which emanated from the last days of the Soviet Union. Tensions originally arose when Armenias, which constitute a majority of the population in the region demanded a complete unification with the nation of Armenia. However, prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, when both Armenia and Azerbaijan were under the military-economic sway of the Soviet Union, the Armenian Parliament passed legislation, declaring the region of the Nagorno-Karabakh to be a part of Armenian territory. This was however categorically rejected by the Soviets, and led to a six-year-long war, which was only resolved in the early 1990s, by Russian intervention. In claim over the region, the Armenian authorities have cited the 1991 referendum, whereas the Azeri side has repeatedly highlighted the United Nations resolution that declares Nagorno-Karabakh, though a predominantly Armenian region, to be an integral part of Azerbaijan. As mentioned already, the region houses a majority of the Armenian population, owing to which several separatist movements have gained momentum, and have managed to declare the region as the ‘Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast’. Since the Six-Day War that recorded the killing of over 30,000 individuals, the conflict in the region has continued sporadically. However, what is unique in terms of the current conflict is the manner in which it has drawn in regional powers and has turned Nagorno-Karabakh into a region of Russian and Turkish interests.

Turkish Involvement in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

In recent months, the Turkish Government of Recep Erdagon. has attempted to portray economic might and military prowess, through its increasing presence in the region. Through the perspective of the international community, as the conflict escalates, many actors have questioned the role played by neighbouring nations such as Turkey. However, in the current conflict, the Turkish Republic has been pinned down by allegations regarding the involvement of Syrian fighters through the Turkish backed militias. It has been ascertained that Syrians are being deployed on behalf of the Azeri army, in the form of shock troops to claw back scraps of land. The increasing deaths of Syrians in the conflict and the use of weapons produced and supplied by states like Israel has been questioned and brought under the scanner the issue that how the worsening of the decades-long conflict attracts outside regional powers to the region. Reporters have shed light on the use of Turkish, Russian, and Israeli produced weapons in the war, especially Azerbaijan’s assault on Stepanakert, the capital of the region which has included the use of cluster munitions. While on the Armenian side, the reports from international groups such as Amnesty International have confirmed the use of Russian manufactured rocket artillery systems in the bombardment of the Azeri city of Ganja. The deployment of the Syrian mercenaries has followed a pattern very similar to the conflict in Libya, where both Turkey and the Russian Federation have locked horns in a bitter battle. Turkish officials have chosen to portray their country’s expanding foreign engagements as part of the country’s promotion of its security and energy interests. Interestingly, another view that has been adopted and mainly by the critics is that Erdagon’s government has used international engagement as an excuse to divert people’s attention from domestic problems such as the crumbling economy, the problems facing the healthcare system, and the effort of the government to rally the country behind an external cause is one last attempt to shore up domestic support.

Russian Stakes in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

As aforementioned, the Russian Federation has a long-established history with the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The first war which lasted six years was brought to an end owing to Russian intervention, effectively defining the Line of Contact between the two neighbouring nations. Russia for long has played a rather confusing and contradictory role. When it comes to Russia’s relations with Armenia, it provides military assistance through bilateral ties and Collective Security Treaty Organisations. However, this assistance for Armenia does not expand to the region of Nagorno- Karabakh, since it is an internationally recognized part of Azerbaijan. In terms of the current crises, Putin’s government has chosen to tread a fine line in terms of diplomatic relations with the erstwhile Soviet satellite states, by selling arms and providing economic assistance to both states. The Federation has given out mixed signals of its willingness to intervene in the conflict, by citing the excuse that it has met its moral obligation to aid the two states and that its jurisdiction does not extend to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Moscow has condemned Azerbaijan’s use of Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries in the region, out of the fear of the conflict becoming the trigger for Islamist militants to establish a presence in the outer reaches of Russia. However, Russia has stepped into the conflict to bring an end to chaos once again, just like it did more than three decades ago. Unfortunately, this time introducing a mutually agreed ceasefire is not going to be a cakewalk for the Russian authorities. Even as Russia floated the idea of sending in ‘Military observers’, the suggestion wasn’t responded to by either of the two heads of states involved in the conflict. The fighting scene is the worst since the war in the early 1990s. Several international bodies warn of an emerging humanitarian crisis, which will only be aggravated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

What Next?

It is crystal clear is that the current conflict can draw in regional powers especially NATO powers such as Turkey. In terms of closure to the conflict, the European Union Policy Chief, Josep Borrell, urged the two nations to carry out an immediate cessation of hostilities. While Iran, a strategic player in the region, also an ally of Armenia, offered to mediate. The region has already experienced war in the latter years of the 20th century which lasted a number of years, while on the other hand, 2016 skirmishes only lasted for a few days. Owing to such historical uncertainty it is difficult to chalk out a prediction for the near future. However, the situation may change significantly if a major power were to enter the conflict in the near future.

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Nagorno-Karabakh in the Caucasus in South-East Europe and is significant as an energy corridor. This conflict has started to destabilize an area which is now drawing regional powers. It is rather important to understand why Nagorno-Karabakh or Artsakh has emerged as a conflict between two nations, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh — “Nagorno” is derived from the Russian language which means mountainous whereas “Karabakh” can be broadly understood as a black garden which is an admixture of Turkish and Persian words.

Artsakh is composed of Armenian majority and had declared independence from Azerbaijan in 1991 which had a Muslim majority populace, yet it has received no recognition as sovereignty even in the 21^st century. It was in 1823 that this area had come under the administration of Tsar Nicholas I, which was retained under the Soviet Republic. The region was ceded to Armenia by the treaty signed between USSR and Turkey. Artsakh was accorded the status of an Autonomous Oblast. The Russian Government during the 19^th century had favoured the Armenians as they had linguistic commonality with them and promulgated policies that would result in the growth of the Armenian population. By the time of the Russian Revolution of 1905, both Armenia and Azerbaijan engaged into an ethnic conflict which would be renewed before the collapse of the Russian Empire. Armenia dominated population established the Armenian National Council of Nagorno-Karabakh as a protest to Azerbaijan laying claim over Karabakh. However, the ongoing resistance against Azerbaijan must be perceived as a war of self-determination for Nagorno-Karabakh that began in the 19th century. However, between 1918 and 1920, this region was under the administration of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic. A failed Armenian rebellion witnessed massacres of Armenians by Azeri forces, inhabiting Shusha or Shushi as Armenians termed it, until 1920. 

Agreements between two countries were reached by the Bishkek Protocol, of which Russia was a signatory in 1994.  During 1987, a petition was propagated by the Armenian academy which argued for the reunification of Nakhichevan to Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic. In 1988, Armenia took over the region and a six-year war led to the death of 30,00 people and mass displacement occurred. Armenia traces claim over Nagorno-Karabakh as public opinion believes that this region was part of the Armenian Kingdom since the 4th century BCE. However, human rights violations, refugee crisis and repercussions on the economy have been continuing phenomena in this region. However, it is important in this regard to highlighting how warring tensions in the Caucasus between Azerbaijan and Armenia accentuated as Turkey chose to side with the former, an ally. Pakistan, like Turkey, has pledged support towards Azerbaijan and it cannot be denied that it has never recognized Armenia as a state. Rather, she was equally engaged in the narrative of denial of the Armenian Genocide. Hence, she does not acknowledge Armenia’s claim over Artsakh and stated that the ethnic cleansing of the Azeris must be condemned. It would not be surprising if mercenaries from Pakistan join this war. Weapons have been majorly supplied under the regime of the Turkish Prime Minister. Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a recent statement argued that Armenia must withdraw from this region as it never belonged to her. Additionally, he stated that Armenia has been the greatest threat to peace in Nagorno-Karabakh and even rejecting the path towards a cease-fire. Missile strikes have now become a continued occurrence which has led to casualties for both Armenia and Azerbaijan and it is believed that violence has been fueled by Turkey for it cannot be denied that she has never perceived Armenia to be a country. Nonetheless, Turkey has denied of any of these statements, which is a hoax and the International Community must understand this. On the other hand, Artsakh experienced a war-like situation as Syrian forces had been deployed by Turkey which resonates with her inflicting mass annihilation on the Armenians. Four United Nations Security Council resolutions namely 823,853,874, 884 were passed in 1993 calling for Armenia’s withdrawal from Artsakh which Yerevan had refused to implement. Azerbaijan even aimed to attack the Republic of Armenia, expanding the geography of the conflict in recent developments. The United States of America responded to this crisis in 1988 by raising huge sums of money for humanitarian relief till date. The Trump administration has been facing excessive pressure by American legislators. The House of Representatives of Armenia Caucasus has introduced a resolution that condemns Turkey’s influence in the region and Azerbaijan’s military operations. Immediate US security assistance would be provided as suggested by the letter signed by 12 Senate Democrats. It had been suggested that the Republic of Artsakh would be recognized as an independent nation if violence would persist. The State Armenian Fund submitted a bill which stated the recognition of the Artsakh Republic.  On the other hand, Iran has stated that the disputed territory belongs to Azerbaijan as the Azeris are the most influential in Iran. President Hasan Rouhani has commented that Armenia must end the conflict.

Animosity Towards Armenia, Turkey’s History of Genocide: 1894-1916

The interests of Turkey in this region can be examined when one analyzes its relationship with Armenia. The Armenian Genocide had been perpetrated by under the Ottoman Empire and the Young Turks. This has been recognized as the first modern genocide which received immense publicization from North America and Europe, yet had been eradicated from popular consciousness in less than two decades later. World War I witnessed the defeat of Ottoman Turkey in the hands of the allied powers namely the British, French and the United States. The first massacre of Armenians occurred during 1894-96 by Sultan Abdul Hamid II during his reign. The Young Turks usurped the throne in 1908, thereafter entering the World War on the support of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. However, history repeated itself through the culmination of bloodshed of the Armenians during 1915-1916. This genocide was executed by the Committee of Union and Progress with the justification of national security in the face of an encroaching Armenian insurgency. The Committee of Union and Progress (CUP), infamously known as the Young Turks now reigned who believed in the notion of pan-Turkism.

All ethnic groups would be brought under one umbrella: the rule of the Ottomans through the idiom of political unification and therefore, the formation of a one-party state that allowed them to exercise such control which was the pathway to completely annihilate the Armenians. An anti-reform attitude was inherited by the CUP during the advent of their rule in 1908 when its foremost leader, Mehmed Talata dismissed the notion of equality with the non-Muslims, who were known by the terminology of ‘ghuirs’ evoking that the Shari‘a believes such an idea to be maleficent with the sentiments of the Muslims. The French ambassador at Istanbul, Paul Cambon opines that Diaspora Armenians had problematised the issue of administrative mishandling into that of racial persecution. The hatred of the government towards Armenians crystallized in the state’s conspiracy to prosecute the mass killing. These perpetrators have been conferred with the name of front-line killers who believe that their actions are for the greater good of the nation. The Interior Ministry announced that it propagated the ideology of benevolence, which functioned under the Ministry of war lead by Enver Pasha. This was indeed a distorted truth as the young girls were distributed in Muslim households, whereas boys of Armenian origin were made to work in factories. It must be pointed out how nationalist historiography claims that its officials were conducting rescue operations. Here one must be able to decipher the racial connotations which were clearly revealed through the government’s policies, as well as the vocabulary of de-humanization when its Anatolian populations were increasingly termed as tumours and leeches who must be exterminated for the greater good of the nation (Morris and Ze’evi, 2019, pp:137-300 ). A first-hand account of a Turkish Official, Lieutenant Moukhtar Beas dating to 26^th December 1916 had been elucidated which promulgates how order from Constantinople led the deportation of Armenians inhabiting the frontier towns to the interior. Large convoys passed through Erzeorum, consisting mainly of men, children and women. In 1915, he was transferred to Trezibond, where a large number of Armenians would be expatiated for the slaughter. The Armenian culture had been completely destroyed. It has been termed as the loss of moral, intellectual and spiritual life. This leads to the community questioning its position in history and in turn the self’s understanding of rootedness with the community. Rather, the collective identity of a community is submerged in its institutions.  Nevertheless, Turkey shares no diplomatic ties with Armenia which clearly can be perceived as the staunch hatred it holds for the Christian minorities who have been regarded as a threat to her beginning from the regime of Sultan Abdul Hamid II.

Conclusion

It is rather necessary for the international community to voice their opinion against such atrocities that are simmering in Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey’s prominent role in this conflict arises from the fact that she wishes to propagate herself as the new leader of the Muslim leader, with Pakistan following the footsteps. The generational trauma that the Armenian population experience remains a horrifying truth. Yet, it is repeating itself in a new form. 

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Some major updates to cover in today’s Indian Foreign Policy Report are as follow:

Ministerial Meeting of the Group of Friends of Victims of Terrorism

The Republic of India recently participated in the Ministerial meeting of the Group of Friends of Victims of Terrorism. The Indian delegation was led by Smt. Vijay Thakur Singh, Ministry of External Affairs. The virtual meeting began with the Indian Secretary conveying a word of gratitude to the Foreign Ministers of Spain and Afghanistan respectively, Co-Chairs of the group and also to the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) for organising the meeting. The Secretary then went onto underscore the importance of dealing with terrorism as an international problem rather than an individual domestic one. She also highlighted that even though the world today has been brought to a standstill, terrorism still continues to pose a threat to International Peace and Security. Throughout the meeting, special emphasis was placed on the rights of the victims of terrorism to get justice for the crimes committed against them. Lastly, the secretary called for redressing deficiencies in the international efforts to ensure that perpetrators of terrorism are swiftly brought to justice. During the meeting, gratitude was also expressed towards the United Nations for establishing August 21 as the ‘ ̃International Day of Remembrance of and tribute to the Victims of Terrorism’.

Press Release of Russia-India-China Foreign Ministers

On the 10th of September, India released a joint press statement, along with the Foreign Minister of Russia, Mr Sergey Lavrov and State Councillor/Foreign Minister of China, Mr Wang Yi. The meeting kicked off with the three ministers expressing their resolve to strengthen the Russia-China-India trilateral cooperation and give importance to issues of international and regional importance. The minister laid emphasis on the fact that cooperation among the three countries is conducive and vital in promoting global growth, peace, stability and more importantly creating an environment of inclusive multilateralism and respect for universally recognized principles of international law. In terms of the recent challenges posed by the COVID- 19 world pandemic, the ministers concurred that the three countries, with strong scientific and industrial capacities, could make a significant contribution towards mitigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The External Affairs Minister of India and the Foreign Minister of China thanked the Foreign Minister of Russia for the chairmanship of RIC and the conferences organized during the past year. The Foreign Minister of Russia officially handed over the chairmanship of RIC to the External Affairs Minister of India.

13th India-Japan Foreign Ministers’ Strategic Dialogue

The 13th India-Japan Foreign Ministerial Strategic Dialogues was recently conducted between the Indian Foreign Minister, S. Jaishankar and his Japanese counterpart, H.E Mr Motegi Toshimitsu. The meeting was initiated with the two representatives reviewing the progress made in India-Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership and discussing issues of mutual interests, ranging from maritime security to UN reforms. Having experienced the benefits of technology at a time when the world has experienced a veritable seismic shift towards technology, the two Foreign ministers finalised the text of the Cyber Security Agreement. The agreement looks at promoting cooperation in capacity building, research and development, security and resilience in the areas of Critical Information Infrastructure, 5G, Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), among others. Lastly, the two Foreign Ministers turned to the issue of the Indo-Pacific that has the entire world riveted. India has time and again, emphasised its belief in establishing the Indo-Pacific as a free and inclusive region. The meeting also led to further discussions on the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative between India, Japan, Australia and other like-minded countries. Lastly, the Japanese side agreed to be the lead partner in the connectivity pillar of the Indo-Pacific Oceans’ Initiative (IPOI) and jointly take both countries’ respective visions for the Indo-Pacific forward.

Joint Press Release of the 7th Round of India-China Military Commander-Level Meeting

The 7th round of the Senior Commanders Meeting of India and China was held in Chushul. The meeting mainly focused on the disengagement along the Actual Line of Control in the Western Sector of the India-China border areas. After what was described as a positive and constructive meeting, both sides agreed to maintain dialogue and communication through their military as well as diplomatic channels. Lastly, both sides agreed to ensure that disagreements in the future do not turn into disputes, securing peace in the region, by maintaining tranquillity in the border areas.

2nd India-Australia-Japan-USA Ministerial Meeting

The Indian Foreign Minister, S. Jaishankar participated in the Second India-Australia-Japan-USA ministerial meeting in Tokyo. The meeting started with a follow up of the talks held in the previous year in September. The four countries called for a coordinated international response, spearheaded by the four nations. They further discussed the post-pandemic world order. The meeting mainly focused on the need to establish best practices to combat the virus, to increase the resilience of the supply chain and fortify the need to enhance the access to affordable vaccines, and medical equipment. Keeping in mind the emergence of the Quad and the importance of the Indo- Pacific, the Foreign Ministers exchanged views about regional and international issues of importance. The representatives re-emphasised their firm support to working towards realising a shared vision for the Indo-Pacific. Alongside the joint ministerial meetings of all the four nations, S. Jaishankar also met with H. E Micheal Pompeo, Secretary of State for the USA, and in the immediate future, will be meeting with the Foreign Ministers of Australia and Japan.

Appointments

The current Ambassador of India to the Republic of Indonesia, Shri Pradeep Kumar Rawat has been replaced by Shri Manoj Kumar Bharti, who served as the Special Secretary in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The following appointment comes as a result of Mr Rawat’s appointment as the next Indian Ambassador to the Kingdom of the Netherlands. Lastly, Shri Rahul Shrivastava, who currently serves as the Indian Ambassador of India to Romania, has been concurrently accredited as the next Ambassador to the Republic of Albania.

Conclusion

The world that we inhabit today is very different from the one that we experienced just over a year ago. Not only have we been dealing with an existential crisis at hand in the form of the COVID 19 pandemic, but as we step into a new decade of the 21st century, we find chaos and confusion governing the four corners of the world, with the coups in countries like Mali and the pitiable state that countries like Nigeria are in. However, the most anticipated event of the year, the US presidential elections are in a fortnight, and it’ll definitely be interesting to see how they shape global politics in the coming years.

Also Read: INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY REPORT — EDITION #6

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1998- 2013: Chavez presidency

In 1922, oil was discovered in Maracaibo basin of western Venezuela, considered to be the world’s largest oil reserve. The then dictator allowed more than 100 foreign companies into Venezuela to extract the reserves and by 1928; the country became the world’s second-biggest petroleum exporter. The nation’s economic development was based on rising prices and profits in oil reserves. But in the 1980s, as the world was facing the worst oil crisis, the global oil prices fell and the Venezuelan economy collapsed; the country faced a massive foreign debt of 33 billion dollars. Ultimately, it was forced to accept an International Monetary Fund Bailout and impose austerity measures that resulted in sharp rises in the price of consumer goods and fares for public transport.    

In 1998, Hugo Chavez was elected as the president of the country and he promised to use the country’s oil wealth to improve the lives of the poor. He expanded the social services and spent huge amounts on social programs such as education, health care, food and housing problems, at one point, even provided free heating oil for impoverished Americans.  Though Hugo wanted to diversify the Venezuelan economy, his expensive strategy only increased the dependency upon the exported oil.  As corruption was still rampant, a steady decline in the oil production reduced oil reserves and increased the government debt.  To deal with the dire economy, Hugo introduced a lot of economic reforms such as currency devaluation and price controls but nothing was effective. He also declared an economic war due to the increasing shortages in the country. In 2013, after ruling for 14 years Hugo died of cancer at the age of 58, his chosen successor vice president Nicolas Maduro narrowly won the elections and became the president.

2013- 2020: Maduro presidency

After the demise of Chavez, elections were held and Maduro won the elections with a 1.5% margin. With inflation at more than 50% a year, the national assembly gave Maduro emergency powers for a year. Still, by 2014, the country had entered an economic recession and by 2016, the country had an inflation rate of 800%, the highest in its history. The healthcare system lacked funding, once-eradicated diseases like cholera and malaria returned causing the death of thousands of children due to hunger and malnutrition. The rate of unemployment increased at an alarming rate and the prices of goods rose to an unexpected level causing a situation of hyperinflation in the country.                                              

In 2017, Maduro’s government created a new legislative body, which gave him the right to pass laws and he disavowed the National Assembly in 2017 leading to the 2017 Venezuelan constitutional crisis. Following the constitutional crisis and the push to ban opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles from politics for 15 years, protests grew to their most combative since they began in 2014. The government failed to handle the matter in a peaceful manner and started oppressing the mobs by using violence, which led to the death of about 6000 civilians by the special action forces.

With these ongoing social and economic crises, in 2018, Maduro won the presidency again in a low-turnout election that was seen by many countries as fraudulent because of low participation by opposition parties.                                                  

Soon after the elections, to tackle the situation of hyperinflation, the government slashed five zeroes from the face value of its old currency and tied the new “sovereign bolivar” to a cryptocurrency that can’t be traded.  Despite various economic reforms by the government, nothing has helped the country’s economy to recover. Years of this economic and political instability in Venezuela have caused the largest population outflow in Latin America in recent years; about 5 million Venezuelans have left the country seeking food, work, and a better life since 2014.                                                       

In 2019, the opposition leader and head of the National Assembly, Juan Guido declared himself to be interim president according to the constitution. He is recognized as such by the U.S., Canada, and Venezuela’s Latin American neighbours.

In 2020, as the coronavirus pandemic spread in Latin America, border closings and the collapse of global oil prices have made life even harder for the Venezuelans.  Child malnutrition has reached crisis levels in Venezuela, reports the U.N. children’s agency. The country’s GDP (Gross domestic product) has dropped by 25% in 2019 which is the largest since the Libyan Civil War began in 2014. The inflation rate has reached 10,000,000% making it almost impossible for people to afford even the basic services like food for their survival.  The country is facing the worst economic and social crisis of all time with the high level of corruption, increasing poverty, no food and water, no proper healthcare system, increasing mortality rate, massive housing shortage, increasing crimes and illegal detentions, increasing unemployment, increasing hyperinflation and sinking of the oil reserves. 

Conclusion

The country which was once considered as the richest in Latin America, due to the largest oil reserves in the world, is now facing the worst economic crisis in the history of the world. It is marked by hyperinflation, escalating starvation, increasing unemployment and a shortage of a proper healthcare system which has led to increased malnutrition and mortality rate. Due to the declining oil reserves and poor governance along with high corruption the economy of the country collapsed.  The country is in a very dire situation with people lacking even the basic needs for survival.  Various countries such as China and Russia are sending aids for the Venezuelan crisis; Russia sent tons of food and medical supplies in Venezuela in February 2020. The European Commission (EC) is the largest donor to organizations working inside Venezuela in 2018, according to the database. It has been sending humanitarian aid to Venezuela since 2016. The EC focuses on projects to improve access to food and nutrition, water, hygiene and sanitation for people in Venezuela.  The United States and regional partners should also provide humanitarian relief and security assistance and accelerate change to a post-Maduro democracy.  As Venezuela is floundering, these humanitarian aids by countries come as the only hope that the country, which was once considered as one of the richest countries of the world, can still overcome its crisis and improve the economic, political and social situation of the country. 

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Some major updates to cover in today’s Indian Foreign Policy Report are as follow:

India’s Mission Sagar in the Indian Ocean Region

With that spirit in mind, India has recently launched, ‘Mission Sagar’ on the 10th of May. The mission is India’s way of assisting nations in the Indian Ocean Region, in their fight against COVID-19. In this mission, assistance was provided by the INS Kesari, that sailed to the Maldives, Mauritius, Madagascar, Comoros, and Seychelles, to deliver material assistance and in particular, medical assistance to Mauritius and Comoros. The successful completion of the mission can be seen as a major milestone, in terms of India’s new foreign policy of increased engagement in the Indo-Pacific and the Western Sectors of the Indian Ocean. The mission is also in line with the Prime Minister’s policy of SAGAR (Security and Growth for all in the Region). Mission Sagar is one particular example of increased Indian activities in the spheres of maritime security, cooperation, and navigation security, as the country transitions from a passive maritime actor to an exceptionally active one, with an equally important say in the Indo-Pacific, one of the most coveted and disputed regions in the world.

Bi-annual Exchange of Prisoner List Between India and Pakistan

As India has constantly tried to increase its presence on the international stage, it has found itself at an impasse with its neighbours on a multitude of issues. However, amidst this highly taut and tense environment, India and Pakistan recently exchanged a list of prisoners on the 1st of July. The exchange of lists is in accordance with the 2008 agreement, where the nations exchange a list of prisoners bi-annually, which is on the 1st of January and the 1st of July. The Indian lists contain 265 Pakistani civilians and 97 fishermen. On the other hand, the list issued by Pakistan contains 54 Indian civilians and 270 fishermen. Furthermore, to expedite the process, the Indian government has provided the nationality verification details of 7 civilians and 106 fishermen. Lastly, to show India’s commitment to the bilateral process, the central government has asked the Pakistan authorities to confirm the nationality status of 88 Pakistani prisoners in Indian custody.

India-China Dialogue Between Special Representatives

As mentioned earlier, India finds itself in an extremely precarious position when it comes to both its neighbours. However, the statement is especially true regarding its relationship with China over the Actual Line of Control. The escalation in violence in the Galwan Valley and the loss of life of Indian and Chinese soldiers was the first since 1975. This extremely volatile situation has both the governments scratching their heads as to what needs to be done next to diffuse the simmering atmosphere. China has chosen to strike a blow against India when it is busy dealing with the surge in casualties as a result of the COVID pandemic. However, in the last few months, India has chosen to follow a hardline stance against the Chinese. This has visibly resulted in increased violence on the border regions and has led to a campaign within the Indian polity advocating the ban of all Chinese products and applications.

However, recently there was a dialogue between the special representatives of the two countries. During the conversation, Ajit Doval, India’s National Security Advisor and H.E Wang Yi, State Councillor and Minister of Foreign Affairs for China, had an in-depth exchange of views on the border issue. During the discussion, several important points were highlighted, the first among them being that peace and tranquillity were essential for the further development of bilateral relations. Hence, it was agreed upon to disengage and pull back all troops from the Line of Actual Control and complete de-escalation on the India-China border. Secondly, both sides agreed to respect the Line of Actual Control and vowed to not take any unilateral action in the region.

India-Russia Bilateral Relations

In a further effort to strengthen bilateral relations, the Indian Prime Minister had a telephonic conversation with the President of the Russian Federation, wherein they discussed several strategic topics of interest to both nations. Mr Modi also used this opportunity to congratulate the President on the successful completion of the parade, marking the 75th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. More importantly, Mr Modi felicitated President Putin on the recent constitutional vote, through which President Putin has consolidated his power till 2036. The Prime minster further recalled the participation of an Indian contingent in the parade in Moscow, as a sign of friendship. Lastly, the Indian Government expressed their enthusiasm for hosting President Putin, later in the year during the bilateral summit.

India’s Participation at the ‘Strengthening Consensus for Peace’ in Afghanistan

Afghanistan over the last many decades has been turned into a complete war zone, with the presence of uninvited international actors. However, in the last two years, there have been constructive steps taken by both the Afghan government and the United States of America to bring the Taliban to the negotiation table in an effort to end the violence and bring lasting peace to the region. Lately, the Islamic Republic hosted a regional meeting, by the name of, ‘ Strengthening Consensus for Peace’. The meeting was chaired by the Afghan President, H.E Dr Mohammad Ashraf Ghani. The conference recorded participation by 20 countries and international organizations. During the conference, India expressed support for establishing a constitutional order in Afghanistan and unequivocally stated the importance of putting an end to terrorist sanctuaries and safe havens for destructive forces in Afghanistan.

Indian Nomination to the United Nations Security Council

Lastly, India recently secured its position as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, with a vote of 184 out of 192. However, to fill in the seat of the Ambassador/Permanent Representative to the United Nations and other international organizations in Geneva, Shri Mani Pandey, who currently serves as the Additional Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs has been appointed.

Conclusion

Looking at India’s foreign policy from a macro perspective, we come to see that India has consistently tried to create an environment of inclusiveness then whether it be in the Indo-Pacific or the Western sectors of the Indian Ocean Region. India’s willingness to corporate and emerge as a regional power is a visible thought of its efforts in Afghanistan and its strategic partnerships with countries like the Russian Federation and France. In the last two decades, China has developed by leaps and bounds and has emerged not as a regional power but as a global hegemon. This has overshadowed nations like India, owing to China’s aggressive policies. Hence, while India tries to extend its reach globally, it has locked horns with China recently in the Galwan Valley region. The Indian and the Chinese sides seem to be ideologically clashing with each other over the Indo-Pacific, one of the most disputed regions of the world. It is India’s capabilities to fight off both the COVID 19 and the Chinese aggression, that will define the India that emerges in the near future.

Also Read: INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY REPORT – EDITION #2

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Oil Price War Explained

Well, it all started with the Russia-Saudi oil price war 2020. Behind this was an effective collapse of an agreement between OPEC and Russia to enact production cuts to support the market. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, wanted deeper and more prolonged cuts to counter the effect of the spread of coronavirus on demand. The International energy agency said that oil consumption is expected to contract this year by 1.5 million barrels per day for the first time since 2009.

Despite this Russia refused the OPEC decision, believing the bigger cuts in production would only propel rival US shale producers. In response, on 8 March 2020, Saudi Arabia launched an oil price war after Russia deal to collapse. Even as the world requires less oil from global producers, the kingdom said it would put 2.6 million barrels a day into the oil market. This triggered a tit-for-tat response from rivals. Russia said it would add more oil into the market and so did the UAE. The UAE announced an increase in production to 4 million barrels per day, higher than the country’s estimated output capacity of 3.5 million bpd.

Aftermath

It’s the first time since the 1930s that we’re seeing such a severe demand shock now combined with a supply shock facilitating  65% quarterly fall in the price of oil. Since the beginning of the price war consumption fell drastically due to depressed demand and insufficient storage mainly because of coronavirus pandemic.

Saudi Aramco announced a cut in capital expenditures from $35–40 billion planned to $25–30 billion. Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil producers also announced price discounts to their buyers, though Iraq’s discount was lower than that of Saudi Arabia’s. The US-based company, Whiting Petroleum Corporation, which produced 120,000 barrels per day, was the first major producer to declare bankruptcy due to the oil price crash. The oil price war is one of the major causes and effects of the currently ongoing global stock-market crash. Norway, Europe’s largest oil exporter, saw a drop in its currency to historic lows against the Euro (source).

In terms of India…

World Bank says Remittances will plunge by more $100bn. This will bite hard as FDI is set to fall 35%, equity & debt flows are expected to fall 80% to low and middle-income countries. India will be hit too especially with flows from the Gulf drying up. India’s remittances are estimated to fall ~23% to $64 bn in 2020.

However, in Russia Saudi oil price war, India can be a big winner by taking advantage of the fall in oil prices and can stock its reserves. India has a storage capacity of 39 million barrels, China’s total capacity is at 550 million barrels and Japan’s at 528 million barrels, ensuring a supply of over 190 days in the event of a supply disruption. If India can increase its storage capacity, then it can be a very good deal for India. 

One more advantage Indian Markets can demonstrate i.e, in the area of Bonds. Still, compared to the Global Markets, Bond yield in India is comparatively attractive. With TLTRO 2.0, Corporates like RIL, NHPC have started issuing bonds. This can be an attractive opportunity for FIIs to capitalize.

On 9 April, OPEC and Russia’s historic deal marks the end of the oil price war by agreeing to reduce the oil production by 10 million BPD to boost the price and let the market forces get stable.

In future, the crude oil prices are expected to make more new lows as long as this global pandemic continues.

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