Consultations between Secretary (East) and Republic of Korea First Vice Foreign Minister

Consultations were held between Ms. Riva Ganguly Das, Secretary(East), MEA, and the First Vice Foreign Minister Mr. Choi Jong-Kun of the Republic of Korea. The consultation was centred around international issues of mutual interest including high-level bilateral exchanges, defense, security cooperation, and COVID-19 response. An important area covered during the meeting was air travel between the two countries. Vice Minister Choi highlighted the steps being undertaken by the government to relax travel restrictions and agreed to continue consultation on the air bubble between the two countries. The Vice Minister expressed appreciation of the leadership role played by the Indian Republic in tackling issues such as climate change and disaster management through initiatives such as the International Solar Alliance and Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure.

The United States confers ‘Legion of Merit’ award on Prime Minister Narendra Modi

The President of the United States of America, Donald Trump conferred the highest decoration, The Legion of Merit, Degree Chief Commander, to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Mr. Modi was bestowed with the following award in recognition of his exemplary contribution to the advancement of the India-United States strategic partnership and promoting global peace and prosperity. The award was received on behalf of Mr. Modi, by Taranjit Sigh Sandhu. The Legion of Merit was also awarded to the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the former Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe.

India-UK Consultations on UNSC Issues

On the 18th of December, India and the United Kingdom held consultations on United Nations Security Council Issues. The UK delegation was being led by Mr. James Kariuki, Multilateral Policy Department of the UK Commonwealth and Foreign Office, and representatives from their Missions in New York and New Delhi. On the other hand, the Indian delegation was being led by Mr. Parish Gupta, Js (UNP & Summits), Ministry of External Affairs, and included other officials from the Ministry of External Affairs, PMI New York, and Indian High Commission in London.

The Indian delegation used this opportunity to brief their UK counterparts on its priorities during its upcoming tenure, including reformed multilateralism and counter-terrorism. The Indian delegation further touched upon its plan during its upcoming Presidency of the UNSC, including Climate Change and Security and famine and hunger in conflict situations. Both the delegations agreed to cooperate and work closely doing their time at the Security Council over the next two years.

Visit of External Affairs Minister to Qatar (December 27-28, 2020)

The External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar will be conducting an official visit to the State of Qatar on 27-28 December. The External Affairs Minister is scheduled to meet the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Ministry, H.E Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani. India and Qatar have over the years maintained close bilateral relations, and strong economic, cultural, and people-to-people cooperation. Bi-lateral trade was the US $10.95 billion in 2019-2. Both sides remain committed to intensifying bilateral cooperation in various fields including energy and investment.

The following visit undertaken by Jaishankar will be his first visit to the country in the capacity of the Indian External Affairs Minister. During the visit, he will be conducting a series of talks with his Qatari counterparts on issues ranging from regional and international issues of mutual interest. The two sides also focused on their response to the ongoing COVID- 19 pandemic and look forward to negotiating an agreement regarding a travel air bubble between the two states.

Virtual Meeting between Minister of State for External Affairs and the Foreign Minister of Gabon

A meeting between the Indian Republic and Gabon was held virtually on the 23rd of December, 2020. India was represented by Shri V. Muraleedheran, Minister of State for External Affairs, while Gabon was resented by H.E. Mr. Pacome Moubelet Boubeya, The Foreign Minister. Both leaders undertook a detailed review of bilateral ties including the COVID 19 pandemic and possibilities of cooperation in the post-COVID scenario. India and Gabon have shared friendly and cordial relations. The Indian delegation used the opportunity to emphasize how the meeting between Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and H.E. the President of Gabon in March of 2018 during the ISA founding Conference and during the Foreign Minister’s visit in 2017 and 2018 and strengthened the strategic relationship between the two countries.

Moving on, the attention shifted to Gabon and the ministers focused on the huge potential that exists in the country such as manganese, timber, agriculture, and railways. Bilateral trade between the two countries has been progressing at a steady rate and reached a total of US $511 million in 2018-19. Both delegations also reviewed the utilization of ITEC slots and finalized the draft MOU for participating in the e-VBAB project. Lastly, the two leaders discussed future cooperation and assistance at an international level, while assuring each other of support at the United Nations and other international forums.

India-Australia-Japan-United States Senior Officials Consultations

A joint video conference was held between the Senior Officials from the Ministry of External Affairs of India, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Australia, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, and Department of State of the United State of America. The following meeting was a follow-up to meetings held between the above-mentioned countries in September and October. The main focus of the consultation was on practical cooperation in the areas of connectivity and infrastructure development and security issues that include counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, and disaster relief. The countries present highlighted their main aim, which was to promote peace, security, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.

In terms of the ongoing effort to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, the officials underscored the importance of enhancing the resilience of supply chains and highlighted the need to ensure safe, effective, and affordable access to COVID-19 vaccines. The officials emphasized the centrality of the ASEAN in the regional architecture of the Indo-Pacific, by reiterating their support for ASEAN- centrality and ASEAN-led mechanisms.

Conclusion

With the introduction of the different COVID-19 vaccines, the world finally breathes a sigh of relief. In India’s case, we see a concentrated effort to strengthen relations, strategic partnerships and supply chains. The coming months will be a testament of whether India as a country will fade into oblivion owing to the severe economic stress brought upon the country, or will it embody the tail of a Phoenix rising from the ashes.

Also Read: INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY REPORT — EDITION #7

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Living Conditions in North Korea

North Korea is a military dictatorship and doesn’t provide enough food for its people. It is considered to be one of the world’s most isolated and poorest country. North Korea’sPresident Kim Jong-un is one of the ruthless dictators and he keeps tight control over the economy. It is mostly unable to meet the needs of its people. North Korea’s economy suffered a devastating downturn in the 1990s when it shrank by nearly a third, and starvation is considered to take the lives of nearly thousands of people. Things have improved but still aren’t great in the country. Since 1948, North Korea has been ruled by the men from the same family. The 25 million people living in the country live under a form of communist rule. Its very difficult to leave the country and people hardly get to visit North Korea. People can’t listen to foreign broadcasts or even watch foreign movies there and whoever does faces harsh punishments. This also means that people there have no idea of outside/world events and they also don’t know what their country is thought of by the outside world. Most North Koreans are extremely poor and can’t even afford things like washing machines, fridges etc. People who try to change the system of the country or try to question the leadership are brutally punished and sometimes killed. North Koreans can’t demand things from their government. Kim Jong-un forces people to cheer for him and people do that because they think that they would get into serious trouble if they didn’t. From the early years, people of North Koreans are taught that their leaders are powerful gods and that they are supposed to worship their leaders. People there don’t have access to the internet. It is available in the country but it is only accessible to the government officials.

Rumours Surrounding Kim Jong Un

The state government has claimed many things to their people about Kim which are completely fallacious. Kim once stated that he has supernatural bodily functions i.e. he doesn’t urinate or defecate or go to the washroom for any such actions. So far, we have established that North Korea has one of the worst international reputations, but people there are told that their leaders and the country itself are beloved around the world and every country remembers and celebrates their birthdays. The state media has also claimed that Kim started to drive by the age of 3 though, to be honest, what is the need, really. It is also said that younger Kim is a celebrated musical composer and is very famous around the world, which he is but obviously not for the music. 

Relations between North Korea and the United States

North Korea has active nuclear weapons and can possess biological and chemical weapons capabilities. The country has shown illicit behaviour by withdrawing from nuclear weapons treaties. In 2017, North Korea successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile and also conducted thermonuclear weapon test in September 2017. Later, it was discovered that its nuclear activities were more extensive than declared. North Korea posed to be one of the most persistent U.S. foreign policy challenges (Post-Cold War period). Having made advances in nuclear and missile weapons under Kim Jong-un, North Korea has evolved to be a grave security threat to the United States. The United States and North Korea began denuclearization talks in 2018, but those negotiations have been frozen since February 2019. Meanwhile, North Korea simultaneously has continued to develop its nuclear powers. If a power struggle in the family after Kim’s death, implications emerge for U.S. interests, including questions about control of the country’s nuclear arsenal, the potential for a humanitarian crisis, and the possibility of a confrontation with China that could alter the fundamental security of the country.

Power within Family

In April 2020, his disappearance from public view prompted reports that he was gravely ill or had died following heart surgery. The 36-year-old dictator, with obesity and a heavy smoker, is reported to have suffered from various health problems. Kim is believed to have three children under the age of 10 but has no obvious heir. If he dies or becomes incapacitated, it is undetermined who would be the next ruler. His younger sister and his confidante, Kim Yo Jong, is among the most likely to take control. She played a prominent role in summit diplomacy, but analysts wonder if a woman could become the leader.

Covid-19 in North Korea

Leader Kim Jong Un warned top party officials of the “serious consequences” of failing to prevent an outbreak of the new coronavirus in the country. The poverty struck nation, which has a weak and ill-equipped healthcare system, has closed its borders to prevent the spread of the disease into its territory.
Pyongyang, capital of the country has not reported a single case of COVID-19, which has killed and infected citizens of dozens of countries since it emerged in the neighboring country, China. Moreover, there are debates over the survival of North Korea if the pandemic reaches its citizens. Poverty struck, starved with no medical facilities and little to no education, many believe that more than half of the 25 million people living there will die or incapacitated to work or uphold their families leading more to starve and die. The military bans on executing every patient of the virus without thinking of the consequences. Other countries, like South Korea and USA plan on providing medical services to the country.

Conclusion

To sum it up, the living conditions in North Korea are horrible. People are not given any kinds of basic human rights such as freedom of speech and expression. There are no medical services provided and if Covid-19 reaches the country’s borders then a large sum of people will fall to their demise. It is one of the only 9 countries who have nuclear weapons and its cold relations with countries surrounding it and the US, it is a threat to not only itself but the world.

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Relations Post COVID Pandemic

The ongoing pandemic has created a time of uncertainty, but one certain thing is that once the pandemic ends, there will be an air of distrust in the global market towards China, and their economic, as well as political prowess, will take a hit. This is seen as an advantage for India and a favourable condition for the USA in a cold conflict which has been going on for the better part of the last two years. This has been fueled further by Donald Trump who has continuously referred to COVID as the ‘Chinese Virus’ in his official briefings.  Trump has been asking his allies within Europe to take a similar stance of blaming China for the health and economic distress. India has played the ball with caution and not followed suit by joining America’s call for blaming the situation fully on to China. Rather, India had been in close contact with health officials from both China and the USA during the early stages of the pandemic. This aligned with India’s long-existing value of international cooperation.  Nonetheless, some things need to be kept in mind when India will be forming their policy about the two countries after the pandemic ends, or possibly slows down. First of all, one needs to expect that the relationship between China and the USA will remain sour. This comes from a simple deduction that China has ambitions that go far beyond India, Russia or South Asia for that matter. China is trying to take up the position of a superpower in the international community as is understood by the international community. Further, the USA has already noticed this ambition and has been trying to keep it in check. Whether it is in the form of a trade war or simple political jargon, the USA is trying to retaliate. India, in this scenario, needs to keep its patience. There is no doubt that India has economic interests in both countries, but it will not be hard to argue that India tends to side with America, when it comes to making a choice between the two. An important aspect of post-COVID relations is the economy. For now, we see that China has already started recovering from the pandemic in economic terms as China has started recovering the losses it incurred during the early months of the pandemic. The same cannot be said about India or even the USA. Even though it is clear that the two countries are still going through the pandemic and have not reached their respective peaks, the current signs show that it won’t be soon that they start to recover economically. As Modi has always claimed that the purpose of foreign policy will be to achieve economic prowess, it can be argued that India needs to make use of its foreign policy to economically recover from COVID. A point for worrying is that India will not be able to compete with China in terms of economic recovery on its own because of the simple lack of skill labour capacity. China’s labour socialism has developed labour skill at a level which India, at this point cannot compare with, statistically speaking. Global economists agree that national labour capacity will be the key for recovery post COVID. Even though Modi’s use of the term ‘Atma-Nirbhar’ may be good for showing a certain national self-dependence, on the ground, India cannot compare with China. Similarly, the USA is in a stronger position in terms of labour capital than India, but it is too early to judge that against China. On the other hand, various international politics scholars also believe that India’s bargaining power will increase in a more than likely limited cold war between USA and China, post-COVID. This stems from the simple fact that India has a huge consumer market in which both countries would want to invest in. Therefore, India needs to make use of its market. Lastly, in a post COVID world, India needs to focus on the global flow of labour and capital, with its established strategic partners in Europe, Middle East and South-East Asia. The USA might not be as equally dependent but they too will need to foreign cooperation. A few days back PM Modi invited American investment in India and that is a positive move. Since India has been trying to move away from China, in terms of economic dependence at least, Modi makes the right move by inviting increased cooperation and investment from America.

Defence Alliances Post the Galwan Clash

The ‘Boycott China’ movement of Indians may reflect that Indians might want to move towards self-dependence but such transformation is to be considered as a long term solution. The crux remains that India needs to maintain its economic relation with China as long as it practically can. If things boil beyond control, India needs to think of an economic plan while at the same time it thinks about its border measures.

Conclusion

India, China and the USA will become a much more interesting international dynamic in the coming years with China’s growing ambition. Nonetheless, India’s priority has to be to economically recover from COVID. Improving economic ties with the West is the clear cut answer to that along with an increased focus on entrepreneurial self-dependence. Moving on, a closer defensive relation with the US also seems to be the way ahead, without severing economic ties with China, for as long as possible. India needs to be more vigilant on the border if it doesn’t want to be walked over by China again. Such strategic partnerships will help India to grow economically, as well as maintain its existing influence over South Asia and possibly expand upon it, in the years to come.

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The US-China Dispute

The Red Dragon and Uncle Sam have a lengthy history of being at loggerheads. The US initially refused to recognise China as a sovereign state and indulged in many ministrations to displace the latter’s communist roots.  It was only in the 1970s that diplomatic relations took flight with the US acceptance of One China Policy. Still, their relations were fraught with friction, especially over human rights. When China entered the world economy and began opening up its economy, its engagement enhanced, with China going on to become America’s largest trading partner. With a few hiccups, the relationship seemed to be aiming for cooperation. However, it all radically changed in 2018 when the Trump government’s tariffs targetted China, setting off a vicious trade war that is still ongoing. What started out as a trade dispute couple of years ago has now turned into a full-blown show of might, branching into other areas as well.

In late 2018, the US signaled its hardline approach towards the eastern giant. The Huawei issue only intensified the same, and the US has done everything in its power to kick the Chinese MNC out of the 5G race on charges of spying. By 2019, the trade war had intensified, with both countries levying hefty tariffs on the other, and placing various other sanctions as well. Early 2020 saw the signing of a trade deal which provided a brief breather for the economic world, but the respite period remained short. The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic sent the global economy tumbling. America faced multi-faceted effects: its capitalist system suffered a downfall and the health system was brought to its knees. This tension had the hegemon accusing China of mismanaging the pandemic and causing harm to the world, eventually pulling out of WHO due to the latter’s support of China. China obviously, did not take the accusations well. But it was the new security law imposed in Hong Kong that proved to be the last nail in the coffin. Trump went on to strip the city of its special status, reducing its credibility as a world economic and financial hub. China accused America of interfering in its domestic affairs, and everything has been downhill since.

The Asian Playground

Due to the deterrence that comes with two giants battling each other, the countries are unlikely to engage in an all-out war, even if relations have diminished to a new low. Their historical animosity played out in the Asian region much like the proxy wars that dominated the global landscape during the Cold War. Both nations have tried to expand the ambit of their influence by espousing Asia-centric policies. Obama’s presidency saw a more active role in the region coupled with an enhanced military presence. China on the other hand relies on its geo-economic power to bind Asia to it. The Belt and Road initiative, the String of Pearls approach, ADB Bank and increasing economic investment promises financial advancement for the region. South Asia in one of the most populous regions in the world, yet intra-regional trade is quite fragmented (just 5%), which reduces the economic benefits it can reap. Thus China’s meteoric economic rise has proved to be a fundamental driver of economic growth. 

US security cover coupled with economic benefits from China has helped in the advancement of many countries, resulting in the expectation that Southeast Asia will become the fourth-largest economy in the world, overtaking the European Union and Japan by 2050. Therefore for Southeast Asian nations, especially the ASEAN market is a key area for both America and China. The US is now frantically looking to shift Asian loyalties to its side as it perceives the rising Chinese aggression and economic strength as a threat.  That is why it has taken a strong position against China’s assertions in the South China Sea and has tried to play on the insecurities of the latter’s neighbours regarding the same. This ‘harbinger of justice’ role has helped the nation gain influence in the region, which was a difficult task because of China’s proximity to it. America is also banking on its military and technological investment to gain the region’s unequivocal support. 

Since the beginning of the Sino-American trade war, Southeast Asia has been an undisputed winner on account of the benefits it is reaping. The high American tariffs on Chinese goods have led to a shift in manufacturing processes to the region. In 2019 Chinese acoustics manufacturer Goertek announced that it will shift its Apple’s Airpods wireless headphones production to Vietnam because of the ongoing trade dispute. Similarly, Cambodia has bagged bicycle production for a high-value US firm, and Thailand has become a hub of vehicle assembly plants. According to Forbes, a survey of U.S. firms manufacturing in China found that 18.5% had either moved production to Southeast Asia or were considering it.

Usually, ASEAN countries have been able to maintain a delicate balance between American geopolitics and Chinese geo-economics. But as both countries increase the heat, it is difficult to predict if the future will force the region to choose sides. For now, Southeast Asia is having a good ride!

The Indian Factor

India has been facing a sudden increase in tensions with China too. The border dispute has led to a fresh impasse, the first one since Doklam. But this time the costs have been higher, with multiple skirmishes and martyred soldiers lining the situation. In response, India, akin to America, has tried to economically isolate China by banning 59 Chinese apps and making calls for being ‘Aatmanirbhar’. But it is easier said than done, for the mammoth amount of trade between the two is skewed in China’s favour. Some would think it is natural for India to lean on the US, especially in view of the latter’s vocal support of India in the afore-mentioned border dispute. It is to an extent true too: India has gained around $755 million in US exports since the trade war disrupted relations. India is also the only country capable of countering China’s influence in a disintegrated Asia. It also has a large youthful population capable of rapid mass production which it could use to its advantage in view of the trade war. 

But the path is not as smooth as it looks. There are multiple factors that weigh India down as compared to Southeast Asia when it comes to being business-savvy. The country has a massive supply of cheap labour but lags glaringly in other areas. Poor infrastructure to accommodate foreign production, inadequate technology, complicated labour laws and red-tapism of a sloth-like bureaucracy have tainted the country’s hopes of attracting foreign investment. That is why despite improving its Ease of Doing Business rankings by 37 places, it still is only the ninth-largest trading partner of the USA. Its tedious land-acquisition laws coupled with hostile neighbourhoods have not done much to attract investors. In addition to this, India’s decision to not be a part of the trade agreement with ASEAN called Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has put it on the back foot. It passed up on a chance to economically seal the deal with the fastest growing economic region and its markets.

In view of these shortcomings, Southeast Asia proves to be a better region to direct investments to. In fact, India is not extremely affected by the trade war as it has not gained much from it. 

Conclusion

The United States of America and China are the two hegemons that balance the current multi-polar world. This grandiosity of sorts, coupled with their mutual interdependence in terms of trade and technology makes it difficult for them to inflict real-time damage on each other, or indulge in an all-out confrontation. That being said, the current animosity between the two is different from their usual spats. In this pandemic-riddled world their tensions have been aggravated by blame-game, allegations of spying, erosion of Hong Kong’s democratic rights and of course, the rejuvenated trade-war. Many Asian countries have benefitted from this fallout and gained increased investment from the US and more come-hither offers by China. It is now to see how their balancing act will progress. However, India has a long way to trudge before it can fully reap the benefits of the clash and needs to work on its internal infrastructure and policies to attract any advantages.

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Over the years, not only has the United Nations solved conflicts but has also catered to humanitarian crises, a number of which have been successful. The Polio Eradication Initiative led by WHO in India has been one of the most effective health campaigns carried out by WHO. In 2009, India had the highest number of polio cases in the world. This public health emergency was especially challenging to tackle due to India’s population density, poverty rate and poor sanitation. Given the rising cases of polio and the challenges the Indian government was faced with, the WHO’s intervention in 2010 made a lasting impact. 

 In the procedure of eliminating Polio, the WHO introduced bivalent oral polio vaccines, the implementation of which was excellently supported by the Indian government. The prompt response to this led to a nationwide inoculation drive and polio vaccines became a must and were being heavily implemented in every state through micro-planning. Despite the complexities of reaching out to every section of the society in a diverse country like India and refusal of getting vaccinated the UN subsidiary in amalgamation with the Indian government led to a sharp fall in the numbers of reported polio cases. 

Although the UN has made crucial contributions towards the betterment of certain aspects, it has, however, failed to prevent war in some instances and has had counterproductive peacekeeping missions. The Democratic Republic of Congo has been victim to the UN’s inefficiency and sub-par performance during the peacekeeping mission set out by the UN for the DRC. 

In 1999 the UN started operation MONUC and sent peacekeeping forces to Congo due to its civil war and the rising threat to human rights it posed. The Congolese Civil War gained traction from its neighbouring states, but the most vital role was played by the Rwandan Army. to counter the same Congo and the UN pledged to remove insurgents in return for the withdrawal of Rwandan troops. In spite of this Rwanda did not comply since they felt the pledge was not upheld and went on to order the UN to withdraw its peacekeeping forces. 

Shockingly, the UN complied and withdrew its forces from the region. Resultantly, the Rwandan Army’s militaristic involvement in Congo increased and caches of weapons in the DRC were found in the following year. Rooting from the UN’s very explicit inaction and resistance towards changing the status quo, this mission by the United Nations is considered one of the most consequential and colossal failures of the organisation. 

Regardless of its performance, the UN has undoubtedly played a key role in shaping world order and contributing to changing the balance of power. Over the years IGO’s have become a platform for states to posture themselves in the international arena and flex their muscles. While the realist beliefs refute the importance of non-state actors and any means of power that is not militaristic or economic in nature, there has been a steady growth in the investments made in the United Nations due to its magnitude. 

China being one of the most prominent states to visibly express their interest in investing and following through has definitely added to its soft power and sphere of influence. China is now the second-largest contributor in financial investments in the form of troops to the UN amongst G77 countries. In 2015 Xi Jinping pledged to supply 8,000 peacekeepers and after withholding that pledge, they committed to a 10 year $1 billion China-UN Peace and Development Fund for peacekeeping operations.

China’s sudden involvement and constant support towards the UN, financially, is no coincidence. By gradually becoming a salient aspect of the mechanism and functioning of the United Nations, China has gained an upper hand in all the conflicts and human rights violations attached to it. Taiwan’s position as a state and not being recognised as a nation-state by the United Nations, now seems far from happening due to the UN’s dependency on China for financial aid. 

2020 being the UN’s 75th anniversary and still being a major stakeholder in the system of states and their functioning, the aforementioned arguments and cases are a pure reflection of the United Nations work over the years and paints a clear picture of its performance and potential actions in the future. 

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